Just two years after selecting him with a top-10 pick, the Bengals are reportedly shopping wideout John Ross. The report says both sides want a fresh start, but realistically if the Bengals thought he'd develop into the player they thought they were drafting, they wouldn't be making him available. More often than not, the really good ones show it in their first seasons, and Ross didn't.
Ross struggled with injuries as a rookie, failing to catch a single pass. He caught 7 TDs in his second season, which is something, but still caught only 21 passes in 13 games. Every case is different, but Ross will be beating the odds if he emerges as a significant player in Year 3, or ever.
I took a look at all wide receivers drafted in the first round since 2000 who didn't do anything as rookies -- less than 200 receiving yards for the season. There have been 14 such players. Half of them quickly washed out of the league (or in the case of the most recent ones, are headed that way). The A.J. Jenkins, R. Jay Soward and Craig Davis types. Seems to be where Laquon Treadwell and Kevin White are headed.
A few others put together a credible season in Year 2 or 3: Darrius Heyward-Bey, Robert Meachem, Michael Jenkins. Heyward-Bey has hung around the league for a while. But no one would select any of them with first-round picks again, in retrospect.
In the table, players are sorted by their rookie yardage totals.
| 1ST-ROUND WRS, UNDER 200 YARDS AS ROOKIES, 2000-PRESENT | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | Yds(1) | TD(1) | Yds(2) | TD(2) | Yds(3) | TD(3) |
| 2007 | 30 | Craig Davis, S.D. | 188 | 1 | 59 | 0 | 52 | 0 |
| 2004 | 31 | Rashaun Woods, S.F. | 160 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2000 | 29 | R. Jay Soward, Jac. | 154 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2009 | 7 | Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oak. | 124 | 1 | 366 | 1 | 975 | 4 |
| 2004 | 29 | Michael Jenkins, Atl. | 119 | 0 | 508 | 3 | 436 | 7 |
| 2017 | 7 | Mike Williams, LAC | 95 | 0 | 664 | 10 | ? | ? |
| 2016 | 22 | Josh Doctson, Wash. | 66 | 0 | 502 | 6 | 532 | 2 |
| 2001 | 16 | Santana Moss, NYJ | 40 | 0 | 433 | 6 | 1105 | 10 |
| 2016 | 23 | Laquon Treadwell, Minn. | 15 | 0 | 200 | 0 | 302 | 1 |
| 2017 | 9 | John Ross, Cin. | 0 | 0 | 210 | 7 | ? | ? |
| 2015 | 7 | Kevin White, Chi. | 0 | 0 | 187 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| 2015 | 26 | Breshad Perriman, Balt. | 0 | 0 | 499 | 3 | 77 | 0 |
| 2012 | 30 | A.J. Jenkins, S.F. | 0 | 0 | 130 | 0 | 93 | 0 |
| 2007 | 27 | Robert Meachem, N.O. | 0 | 0 | 289 | 4 | 722 | 9 |
One of the guys who did go on to have a great career was Santana Moss. Like Ross, he was on the small side, and had great speed. And Mike Williams, from the same draft as Ross, did nothing as a rookie, but looked like a possible future No. 1 last year, catching 10 TDs in a fairly crowded receiving corps. So maybe.
But the overall picture is that guys who didn't do much in their first seasons didn't do much in the NFL, period. Ross doesn't strike me as a compelling buy-low guy in dynasty leagues.
--Andy Richardson