I will be very interested to see where D.K. Metcalf goes in the draft. He wasn’t all that productive in college, but with the kind of measurables he put up at the combine, I think he’ll be a top-15 pick.
Metcalf ran a 4.33 in Indianapolis, and he’s a huge, chiseled specimen – 6-foot-3 and 228 pounds. So physically, we’re talking about a guy who’s like Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, Josh Gordon and Andre Johnson. Metcalf is actually a little bigger and faster than Julio.
Great genes, of course, run in that family. His grandfather was a standout running back with the Cardinals. I remember a game at Dallas in the ‘70s where Terry Metcalf hurdled a would-be tackler. And his uncle was even more athletic; Eric Metcalf at one point ranked as one of the top 10 all-time in the long jump (as in all-time – including Bob Beamon, Carl Lewis and all the rest).
D.K. Metcalf has some of that athletic stuff in him, and he’s also flashed some big-time production, coming up with high throws and getting behind defenses for long touchdowns. That’s enough, I think, that he’ll be gone before the middle of the first round.
But Metcalf is also still very much a work in progress. He didn’t play that much at Mississippi. He caught only 2 passes as a freshman (both touchdowns) before a broken foot sidelined him for the season. In 2017, he caught 39 passes for 646 yards and 7 TDs. Last year he caught 26 passes for 569 yards and 5 TDs in seven games before a neck injury sidelined him for the remainder of the season.
Metcalf will need time to develop in terms of his hands, route running and learning an NFL offense. Some chance, I think, that he’ll be a DeVante Parker type, where his on-field production doesn’t measure up to his talent (especially early in his career). In his first year or two, he may be used in a simplified, limited role.
But the size and speed are insane, and I expect that will prompt some team to call his name early.
I believe there have been only 18 wide receivers who have run faster than 4.40 at Indianapolis who have been selected in the first round. (This is ignoring receivers who chose not to run at the combine and then ran fast at pro days). All 18 of those previous first-rounders caught at least 10 more passes than Metcalf in their final season in college.
Only four of those 18 other fast receivers finished with fewer than 900 receiving yards in their final year of college, and all four failed to meet expectations – Phillip Dorsett, Darrius Heyward-Bey, R. Jay Soward and Troy Williamson.
| FIRST-ROUND RECEIVERS RUNNING FASTER THAN 4.40 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Ht | Wt | Time | No | Yards | Avg | TD |
| 1996 | Marvin Harrison, Ind. | 6.01 | 181 | 4.38 | 56 | 1,131 | 20.2 | 10 |
| 2000 | R. Jay Soward, Jac. | 5.10 | 177 | 4.34 | 55 | 655 | 11.9 | 5 |
| 2002 | Javon Walker, G.B. | 6.03 | 210 | 4.35 | 45 | 944 | 21.0 | 7 |
| 2004 | Lee Evans, Buff. | 5.11 | 197 | 4.39 | 75 | 1,545 | 20.6 | 9 |
| 2004 | Roy Williams, Det. | 6.02 | 212 | 4.36 | 70 | 1,079 | 15.4 | 9 |
| 2005 | Troy Williamson, Minn. | 6.02 | 203 | 4.38 | 43 | 835 | 19.4 | 7 |
| 2007 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 6.05 | 239 | 4.35 | 76 | 1,202 | 15.8 | 15 |
| 2009 | Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oak. | 6.02 | 210 | 4.30 | 42 | 609 | 14.5 | 5 |
| 2011 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 6.03 | 220 | 4.39 | 78 | 1,133 | 14.5 | 7 |
| 2012 | A.J. Jenkins, S.F. | 6.00 | 200 | 4.37 | 90 | 1,276 | 14.2 | 8 |
| 2013 | Tavon Austin, St.L. | 5.08 | 176 | 4.28 | 114 | 1,289 | 11.3 | 12 |
| 2014 | Brandin Cooks, N.O. | 5.10 | 189 | 4.33 | 128 | 1,730 | 13.5 | 18 |
| 2014 | Sammy Watkins, Buff. | 6.01 | 211 | 4.39 | 101 | 1,464 | 14.5 | 12 |
| 2014 | Odell Beckham, NYG | 5.11 | 198 | 4.38 | 59 | 1,152 | 19.5 | 9 |
| 2015 | Kevin White, Chi. | 6.03 | 215 | 4.35 | 109 | 1,447 | 13.3 | 10 |
| 2015 | Phillip Dorsett, Ind. | 5.10 | 185 | 4.33 | 36 | 871 | 24.2 | 10 |
| 2016 | Will Fuller, Hou. | 6.00 | 186 | 4.32 | 62 | 1,258 | 20.3 | 14 |
| 2017 | John Ross, Cin. | 5.11 | 188 | 4.22 | 81 | 1,150 | 14.2 | 19 |
| 2018 | D.K. Metcalf | 6.03 | 228 | 4.33 | 26 | 569 | 21.9 | 5 |
—Ian Allan