Let me take another stab at the Benjamin Watson signing. I posted a quick hot take earlier, but since that time, I’ve had to look at things closer (when I was going in to revise the Patriots team story for the magazine).
Watson has some nominal receiving ability. He had a 61-catch season for the Ravens two years ago. The year before he missed the 2016 season with an Achilles injury, he caught 74 passes for New Orleans. He’s 38, but he’s got some ability to catch the ball when he’s open and they throw it to him.
But I don’t envision the Patriots doing that much. They’ve never been big on using tight ends as check-down options. They’ve already got Julian Edelman and James White catching tons of short passes. This isn’t a team where some crappy tight end is going to catch 60 balls.
They used Rob Gronkowski as a downfield receiver. He typically averaged over 15 yards per catch. Watson isn’t going to run those routes. On that front, Austin Seferian-Jenkins is more likely to be the surprisingly productive tight end in this offense (if there is one, which isn’t going to happen). Seferian-Jenkins has been a peashooter short-range guy the last three years, but he averaged over 16 per catch back in 2015, showing some ability to run those Gronk routes.
As part of these exercise, we can look at what the Patriots have done without Gronkowski recently. As luck would have it, they’ve played 16 games – a season’s worth of work – without him since 2016. That’s including playoff games. In those games, they haven’t gotten much production from tight ends. I see three games where a tight end finished with over 35 yards – Martellus Bennett each time. Dwayne Allen had some pass-catching ability with the Colts, but they never did much with him.
| NEW ENGLAND TIGHT ENDS WITHOUT GRONKOWSKI | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Opp | Result | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD |
| 2016 | Develin | at Ariz. | W 23-21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0 |
| 2016 | Bennett | at Ariz. | W 23-21 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| 2016 | Develin | Mia. | W 31-24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0 |
| 2016 | Bennett | Mia. | W 31-24 | 6 | 5 | 114 | 22.8 | 1 |
| 2016 | Develin | at S.F. | W 30-17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0 |
| 2016 | Bennett | at S.F. | W 30-17 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| 2016 | Develin | LAR | W 26-10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0 |
| 2016 | Bennett | LAR | W 26-10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| 2016 | Develin | Balt. | W 30-23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0 |
| 2016 | Bennett | Balt. | W 30-23 | 4 | 4 | 70 | 17.5 | 1 |
| 2016 | Develin | at Den. | W 16-3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| 2016 | Bennett | at Den. | W 16-3 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 17.5 | 0 |
| 2016 | Develin | NYJ | W 41-3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | .0 | 0 |
| 2016 | Bennett | NYJ | W 41-3 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 1 |
| 2016 | Develin | at Mia. | W 35-14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0 |
| 2016 | Bennett | at Mia. | W 35-14 | 5 | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 1 |
| 2016 | Develin | Hou. | W 34-16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | .0 | 0 |
| 2016 | Bennett | Hou. | W 34-16 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| 2016 | Develin | Pitt. | W 36-17 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| 2016 | Bennett | Pitt. | W 36-17 | 5 | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
| 2016 | Develin | Atl. (SB) | W 34-28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0 |
| 2016 | Bennett | Atl. (SB) | W 34-28 | 6 | 5 | 62 | 12.4 | 0 |
| 2017 | Hollister | at T.B. | W 19-14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0 |
| 2017 | D.Allen | at T.B. | W 19-14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0 |
| 2017 | Develin | at T.B. | W 19-14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0 |
| 2017 | Hollister | at Mia. | L 20-27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0 |
| 2017 | Develin | at Mia. | L 20-27 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| 2017 | D.Allen | at Mia. | L 20-27 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| 2018 | D.Allen | at Chi. | W 38-31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0 |
| 2018 | Develin | at Chi. | W 38-31 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0 |
| 2018 | Develin | G.B. | W 31-17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -- | 0 |
| 2018 | D.Allen | G.B. | W 31-17 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 |
| 2018 | Develin | at Ten. | L 10-34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0 |
| 2018 | D.Allen | at Ten. | L 10-34 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| 2018 | Hollister | at Ten. | L 10-34 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
If we take all of the team’s tight ends in those 16 games (and I’m including James Develin, who’s combination fullback and tight end) they’ve caught 44 passes for 487 yards and 4 TDs. That’s a bottom-5 total when stacked up against what other teams did with tight ends last year.
| TEAM TIGHT END PRODUCTION | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | No | Yards | Avg | TD | PPR |
| Philadelphia | 155 | 1571 | 10.1 | 12 | 384.1 |
| Indianapolis | 108 | 1216 | 11.3 | 21 | 355.6 |
| Kansas City | 115 | 1500 | 13.0 | 13 | 343.0 |
| San Francisco | 95 | 1481 | 15.6 | 7 | 285.1 |
| Oakland | 91 | 1111 | 12.2 | 10 | 262.1 |
| Pittsburgh | 86 | 1119 | 13.0 | 6 | 233.9 |
| Tampa Bay | 73 | 911 | 12.5 | 11 | 230.1 |
| Baltimore | 86 | 1071 | 12.5 | 5 | 223.1 |
| Washington | 84 | 966 | 11.5 | 5 | 210.6 |
| Cleveland | 75 | 853 | 11.4 | 8 | 208.3 |
| NY Giants | 79 | 935 | 11.8 | 5 | 202.5 |
| Green Bay | 81 | 922 | 11.4 | 4 | 197.2 |
| Atlanta | 85 | 799 | 9.4 | 5 | 194.9 |
| Tennessee | 67 | 802 | 12.0 | 7 | 189.2 |
| Carolina | 65 | 676 | 10.4 | 7 | 174.6 |
| Chicago | 64 | 668 | 10.4 | 7 | 172.8 |
| Minnesota | 74 | 747 | 10.1 | 4 | 172.7 |
| NY Jets | 67 | 735 | 11.0 | 5 | 170.5 |
| Cincinnati | 67 | 708 | 10.6 | 5 | 167.8 |
| New Orleans | 66 | 739 | 11.2 | 4 | 163.9 |
| Dallas | 68 | 710 | 10.4 | 4 | 163.0 |
| Houston | 61 | 745 | 12.2 | 4 | 159.5 |
| Seattle | 51 | 600 | 11.8 | 8 | 159.0 |
| Denver | 68 | 649 | 9.5 | 3 | 150.9 |
| LA Rams | 58 | 617 | 10.6 | 5 | 149.7 |
| New England | 54 | 761 | 14.1 | 3 | 148.1 |
| LA Chargers | 48 | 567 | 11.8 | 3 | 122.7 |
| Jacksonville | 59 | 530 | 9.0 | 1 | 118.0 |
| Pats (no Gronk) | 44 | 487 | 11.1 | 4 | 116.7 |
| Detroit | 45 | 461 | 10.2 | 4 | 115.1 |
| Buffalo | 56 | 525 | 9.4 | 1 | 114.5 |
| Arizona | 46 | 475 | 10.3 | 1 | 99.5 |
| Miami | 39 | 386 | 9.9 | 2 | 89.6 |
Maybe we see something in the preseason games that changes thing, but as of today, I wouldn’t be selecting a New England tight end with a top-30 pick. There are better flyer-type last-round picks available.
—Ian Allan