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Factoid

Fourth-round running backs

Odds against rookie impact from Hill, Love

There were some interesting running backs selected in the fourth round this year. Justice Hill (pictured) by Baltimore, Bryce Love by Washington, Benny Snell by Pittsburgh and Tony Pollard by Dallas. If there's an injury or two ahead of them, or they flash in training camp, maybe they make some rookie year noise. But probably not.

More typically, the fourth round is where backs are selected when they're not expected to be immediate contributors. Maybe they're coming off a serious injury, like Love, or maybe they'll be gadget types (Pollard) or need to get up to speed in pass protection (Hill). Snell could be part of a committee if James Conner gets hurt, but Jaylen Samuels might be a better choice for handcuff -- he'll certainly get all passing downs.

This century, there have been 47 running backs selected in the fourth round. Just five, so about 10 percent, finished in the top 30 at their position (1 point for every 10 rushing or receiving yards, 6 for touchdowns). Eleven more snuck into the top 50. None of last year's rookies (in bold) did so.

FOURTH ROUND RBS, 2000-2018 (TOP-50 RANKS SHOWN)
YearPickPlayerRunRecTotTDRk
2003101Domanick Davis, Hou.10313511382815
2014113Andre Williams, NYG721130851721
2015106Jeremy Langford, Chi.537279816724
2016136Devontae Booker, Den.612265877527
2017134Jamaal Williams, G.B.556262818629
2011105Roy Helu, Wash.6403791019331
2006117Leon Washington, NYJ650270920435
2005109Marion Barber, Dall.538115653535
2015125Javorius Allen, Balt.514353867336
2003105Onterrio Smith, Minn.579129708536
2017114Samaje Perine, Wash.603182785241
2001121Correll Buckhalter, Phil.586130716241
2017119Tarik Cohen, Chi.370353723342
2017143Marlon Mack, Ind.358225583447
2011115Kendall Hunter, S.F.473195668247
2017140Wayne Gallman, NYG476193669150
2008122Tashard Choice, Dall.4721856572--
2004119Mewelde Moore, Minn.3792386170--
200299Jonathan Wells, Hou.529485773--
2016134Kenneth Dixon, Balt.3821625443--
2014103Devonta Freeman, Atl.2482254732--
2018126Ito Smith, Atl.3151524674--
2012106Robert Turbin, Sea.3541814350--
2014138Lorenzo Taliaferro, Balt.2921144064--
2003108Quentin Griffin, Den.345614060--
2003132LaBrandon Toefield, Jac.2121053173--
2018134Chase Edmonds, Ariz.2081033112--
201297Lamar Miller, Mia.250452951--
2003121Justin Griffith, Atl.1681222902--
2003115Lee Suggs, Clev.28902892--
2014124DeAnthony Thomas, K.C.1131562692--
2018131Kalen Ballage, Mia.191562471--
2002135Najeh Davenport, G.B.184332171--
2014117KaDeem Carey, Chi.158572150--
2010112Joe McKnight, NYJ189202090--
2013125Johnathan Franklin, G.B.107301371--
2005110Brandon Jacobs, NYG990997--
2015126Mike Davis, S.F.5838960--
2009111Mike Goodson, Car.4915640--
2014130James White, N.E.3823610--
2005130Darren Sproles, S.D.5010600--
2011126Bilal Powell, NYJ217280--
2016119Tyler Ervin, Hou.318210--
2017132Donnel Pumphrey, Phil.0000--
2017121Joe Williams, S.F.0000--
2007100Michael Bush, Oak.0000--
2001100Rudi Johnson, Cin.0000--

Positively, looks like about a 1-in-3 chance for those four 2019 fourth-rounders to be some kind of factor in fantasy leagues. Love, who tore his ACL in December, seems least likely -- might not play at all this season. Pollard might not even be the correct handcuff for Ezekiel Elliott (Mike Weber is more likely). Snell won't necessarily get on the field at all; squarely behind Conner and Samuels.

I'm intrigued by Hill. He's a capable receiver, with 31 receptions at Oklahoma State two years ago (though just 13 last year). Baltimore has Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards and Kenneth Dixon, but roles are undetermined. Hill's the guy I'd take a late-round flier on and hope he emerges as a viable third-down back.

--Andy Richardson

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