Julio Jones and the Falcons have been working on a contract extension for most of the offseason. And nobody will suggest he’s not one of the game’s very best wide receives. But Jones has oddly been ineffective around the goal line.
It’s not that the Falcons haven’t tried to use him in that area. He just hasn’t been very effective.
Over the past four years (that is, the 2015-2018 seasons) they have thrown him 37 passes when they have been inside the 10-yard line. Those 37 passes have resulted in only 16 completions, and just 9 touchdowns.
There have been 32 players (including tight ends) who have seen at least 25 targets in that part of the field over the last four years. Only one other (Dez Bryant) has scored on under 25 percent of his targets.
| RECEIVING INSIDE 10 (2015-2018) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Pct | TD | 2pt | EZ Pct |
| TE Jordan Reed, Was. | 26 | 18 | 69.2% | 15 | 0 | 57.7% |
| WR Jordy Nelson, GB-Oak | 29 | 21 | 72.4% | 15 | 1 | 55.2% |
| WR Davante Adams, G.B. | 35 | 22 | 62.9% | 15 | 3 | 51.4% |
| WR Michael Thomas, N.O. | 35 | 26 | 74.3% | 17 | 0 | 48.6% |
| WR Alshon Jeffery, Chi-Phi | 27 | 14 | 51.9% | 10 | 3 | 48.1% |
| TE Zach Ertz, Phil. | 28 | 17 | 60.7% | 13 | 0 | 46.4% |
| WR Odell Beckham, NYG | 26 | 12 | 46.2% | 12 | 0 | 46.2% |
| WR Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 46 | 26 | 56.5% | 18 | 3 | 45.7% |
| TE Travis Kelce, K.C. | 31 | 18 | 58.1% | 11 | 3 | 45.2% |
| WR Randall Cobb, G.B. | 25 | 15 | 60.0% | 10 | 1 | 44.0% |
| WR Michael Crabtree, Oak-Bal | 37 | 16 | 43.2% | 13 | 3 | 43.2% |
| WR Allen Robinson, Jac-Chi | 35 | 17 | 48.6% | 14 | 1 | 42.9% |
| WR DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 40 | 20 | 50.0% | 16 | 1 | 42.5% |
| TE Delanie Walker, Ten. | 26 | 14 | 53.8% | 10 | 1 | 42.3% |
| WR Mike Evans, T.B. | 37 | 15 | 40.5% | 12 | 3 | 40.5% |
| TE Jimmy Graham, Sea-GB | 30 | 13 | 43.3% | 11 | 1 | 40.0% |
| WR A.J. Green, Cin. | 30 | 13 | 43.3% | 12 | 0 | 40.0% |
| WR Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 38 | 21 | 55.3% | 13 | 2 | 39.5% |
| WR Doug Baldwin, Sea. | 28 | 14 | 50.0% | 10 | 1 | 39.3% |
| TE Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 26 | 12 | 46.2% | 9 | 1 | 38.5% |
| TE Antonio Gates, LAC | 34 | 13 | 38.2% | 11 | 2 | 38.2% |
| WR Golden Tate, Det-Phi | 29 | 20 | 69.0% | 9 | 2 | 37.9% |
| WR Jarvis Landry, Mia-Cle | 45 | 28 | 62.2% | 15 | 2 | 37.8% |
| WR Eric Decker, NYJ | 25 | 14 | 56.0% | 9 | 0 | 36.0% |
| WR Demaryius Thomas, Den-Hou | 35 | 17 | 48.6% | 11 | 1 | 34.3% |
| TE Kyle Rudolph, Min. | 40 | 19 | 47.5% | 13 | 0 | 32.5% |
| WR T.Y. Hilton, Ind. | 29 | 14 | 48.3% | 8 | 1 | 31.0% |
| WR Marvin Jones, Cin-Det | 27 | 11 | 40.7% | 8 | 0 | 29.6% |
| WR Julian Edelman, N.E. | 28 | 13 | 46.4% | 7 | 1 | 28.6% |
| WR Amari Cooper, Oak-Dal | 26 | 8 | 30.8% | 5 | 2 | 26.9% |
| WR Julio Jones, Atl. | 37 | 16 | 43.2% | 9 | 0 | 24.3% |
| WR Dez Bryant, Dall. | 26 | 7 | 26.9% | 6 | 0 | 23.1% |
What’s going on here? With the way technology is set up right now – 2019 – we don’t have the ability to easily watch all 37 of those plays back to back. So you have to go off memory and hunches.
My theory is that Jones is so big (6-3, 220) that he’s not quick. It’s harder for him to stop, start and change direction. I think he’s better when he’s got more field to work with (allowing him to build up speed). Like T.Y. Hilton in that regard. And it doesn’t help that no defense is going to overlook him around the end zone.
The Falcons have plenty of other capable pass catchers – Mohamed Sanu, Austin Hooper, Calvin Ridley – and I expect those guys will see plenty of balls around the goal line. Given the matchups, I think some of them (probably most of them) will be more effective than Jones in that part of the field.
Jones should catch plenty of passes for plenty of yards, but I don’t think he’ll be a great scorer.
—Ian Allan