Around the NFL

July 04, 2019

Green Bay defense

Can new additions get team back to contention?

A story on NFL.com suggests the key to Green Bay getting back to contention this year will be an improved defense. They added a couple of high-priced free agents and used their early draft picks on defenders. So maybe. There's certainly ample room for improvement.

The only uncertainty I have is that most of their biggest acquisitions (top pick Rashan Gary and free agents Preston Smith and ZaDarius Smith) are all meant to provide pass rush, and that hasn't been an issue for this defense. The Packers have had a top-10 pass rush in six of the last seven years. Over that span, only five teams have had more sacks. Best the new additions will do is enable them to hold serve in that regard.

TEAM SACKS, 2012-2018
Team	'12	'13	'14	'15	'16	'17	'18	Total
Carolina	39	60	40	44	47	50	35	315
LA Rams	52	53	40	41	31	48	41	306
Denver	52	41	41	52	42	33	44	305
Pittsburgh	37	34	33	48	38	56	52	298
Minnesota	44	41	41	43	41	37	50	297
Green Bay	47	44	41	43	40	37	44	296
Arizona	38	47	35	36	48	37	49	290
New England	37	48	40	49	34	42	30	280
Kansas City	27	47	46	47	28	31	52	278
Seattle	36	44	37	37	42	39	43	278
Baltimore	37	40	49	37	31	41	43	278
Chicago	41	31	39	35	37	42	50	275
Tennessee	39	36	39	39	40	43	39	275
Buffalo	36	57	54	21	39	27	36	270
Washington	32	36	37	38	38	42	46	269
Philadelphia	30	37	49	37	34	38	44	269
Houston	44	32	38	45	31	32	43	265
New Orleans	30	49	34	31	30	42	49	265
Cincinnati	51	43	20	42	33	41	34	264
Jacksonville	20	31	45	36	33	55	37	257
Detroit	34	33	42	42	26	35	43	255
NY Jets	30	41	45	39	27	28	39	249
Miami	42	42	39	31	33	30	31	248
LA Chargers	38	35	26	32	35	43	38	247
Indianapolis	32	42	41	35	33	25	38	246
Dallas	34	34	28	31	36	38	39	240
San Francisco	38	38	36	28	33	30	37	240
Cleveland	38	40	31	29	26	34	37	235
Tampa Bay	27	35	36	38	38	22	38	234
NY Giants	33	34	47	23	35	27	30	229
Atlanta	29	32	22	19	34	39	37	212
Oakland	25	38	22	38	25	31	13	192

It's in terms of takeaways where Green Bay has struggled in recent years. They haven't ranked in the top 10 in that area in any of the last four years. Over that span, they've been a bottom 10 team in terms of takeaways.

TEAM TAKEAWAYS, 2015-2018
Team	'15	'16	'17	'18	Total
Kansas City	29	33	26	27	115
Carolina	39	27	21	22	109
LA Rams	26	18	28	30	102
Philadelphia	26	26	31	17	100
Arizona	33	28	21	16	98
Denver	27	27	17	27	98
Tampa Bay	23	29	26	17	95
Buffalo	25	18	25	27	95
Washington	26	20	23	26	95
LA Chargers	20	28	27	20	95
Baltimore	14	28	34	17	93
Seattle	22	19	25	26	92
NY Giants	27	25	19	21	92
New Orleans	22	21	25	24	92
New England	21	23	18	28	90
Pittsburgh	30	23	22	15	90
Indianapolis	25	17	20	26	88
Minnesota	22	27	19	20	88
Houston	25	17	16	29	87
Chicago	17	11	22	36	86
Oakland	25	30	14	17	86
Miami	16	25	15	28	84
Green Bay	22	25	22	15	84
NY Jets	30	12	20	20	82
Jacksonville	18	13	33	17	81
Cincinnati	28	20	14	18	80
Atlanta	23	22	16	19	80
Cleveland	21	13	13	31	78
Detroit	18	14	32	14	78
Tennessee	19	18	21	17	75
Dallas	11	20	21	20	72
San Francisco	12	20	20	7	59

The Packers are counting on an improved secondary changing that. They also used a first-round pick on safety Darnell Savage, and signed another safety, Adrian Amos, away from Chicago.

I didn't include Green Bay in my initial top 20 defenses. I'm figuring the pass rush might hold serve, at best, and I'm not even confident in that. It's not a given that Gary is going to step in and be a star, despite his lofty selection, and neither of the Smiths will necessarily be a game-changer. The idea that Mike Pettine is going to build a championship contender on the defensive side of the ball looks optimistic.

It will be on offense where Green Bay either succeeds or fails in 2019. If they made a good coaching hire in Matt LaFleur, there's potential for a bounce-back year from Aaron Rodgers, and another NFC North title. But I'm not expecting it to be a difference-making defense, fantasy or otherwise.

--Andy Richardson

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