A large part of fantasy football is determining who the best starters will be. Another part is determining who the poorest ones will be, so you can avoid them -- and spend time figuring out who will eventually replace them.
Which brings us to Tampa Bay and Peyton Barber. He'll open training camp as the team's starting running back, as he was a year ago. There have been some positive stories about second-year back Ronald Jones, but he has a lot to prove before anyone thinks he'll be the lead back in Bruce Arians' offense. But looking at Barber's 2018, it's hard to imagine he'll stick atop the depth chart for long.
PewterReport.com maintains the coaching staff has full faith in Barber. But that might be because they haven't found a viable alternative. The former undrafted free agent is a pretty pedestrian back.
He averaged just 3.7 yards per attempt last year, and while a lot of that can be chalked up to a poor offensive line, it's harder to dismiss the fact that he was similarly ineffective in the passing game. Among all running backs with at least 20 catches a year ago, nobody did less with their passing game opportunities than Barber. His 3.2 yards per target was worst in the league.
| RUNNING BACKS, YARDS PER TARGET, 2018 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Tgt | Avg/Tgt |
| Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 26 | 378 | 14.5 | 7 | 35 | 10.8 |
| Spencer Ware, K.C. | 20 | 224 | 11.2 | 0 | 23 | 9.7 |
| Matt Breida, S.F. | 27 | 261 | 9.7 | 2 | 31 | 8.4 |
| Adrian Peterson, Was. | 20 | 208 | 10.4 | 1 | 26 | 8.0 |
| Tarik Cohen, Chi. | 71 | 725 | 10.2 | 5 | 91 | 8.0 |
| Kyle Juszczyk, S.F. | 30 | 324 | 10.8 | 1 | 41 | 7.9 |
| Corey Clement, Phil. | 22 | 192 | 8.7 | 0 | 25 | 7.7 |
| Austin Ekeler, LAC | 39 | 404 | 10.4 | 3 | 53 | 7.6 |
| Jalen Richard, Oak. | 68 | 607 | 8.9 | 0 | 81 | 7.5 |
| Melvin Gordon, LAC | 50 | 490 | 9.8 | 4 | 66 | 7.4 |
| Todd Gurley, LAR | 59 | 580 | 9.8 | 4 | 81 | 7.2 |
| Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 22 | 185 | 8.4 | 1 | 26 | 7.1 |
| James Conner, Pitt. | 55 | 497 | 9.0 | 1 | 71 | 7.0 |
| Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 107 | 867 | 8.1 | 6 | 124 | 7.0 |
| Darren Sproles, Phil. | 15 | 160 | 10.7 | 2 | 23 | 7.0 |
| Duke Johnson, Clev. | 47 | 429 | 9.1 | 3 | 62 | 6.9 |
| Jaylen Samuels, Pitt. | 26 | 199 | 7.7 | 3 | 29 | 6.9 |
| Chris Carson, Sea. | 20 | 163 | 8.2 | 0 | 24 | 6.8 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers, T.B. | 38 | 304 | 8.0 | 0 | 45 | 6.8 |
| Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 81 | 709 | 8.8 | 4 | 105 | 6.8 |
| Damien Williams, K.C. | 23 | 160 | 7.0 | 2 | 24 | 6.7 |
| Wendell Smallwood, Phil. | 28 | 230 | 8.2 | 2 | 35 | 6.6 |
| Kenyan Drake, Mia. | 53 | 477 | 9.0 | 5 | 73 | 6.5 |
| Mark Ingram, N.O. | 21 | 170 | 8.1 | 1 | 27 | 6.3 |
| Tevin Coleman, Atl. | 32 | 276 | 8.6 | 5 | 44 | 6.3 |
| T.J. Yeldon, Jac. | 55 | 487 | 8.9 | 4 | 78 | 6.2 |
| Elijah McGuire, NYJ | 19 | 193 | 10.2 | 1 | 31 | 6.2 |
| Dalvin Cook, Min. | 40 | 305 | 7.6 | 2 | 49 | 6.2 |
| James White, N.E. | 87 | 751 | 8.6 | 7 | 123 | 6.1 |
| Dion Lewis, Ten. | 59 | 400 | 6.8 | 1 | 67 | 6.0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 77 | 567 | 7.4 | 3 | 95 | 6.0 |
| Saquon Barkley, NYG | 91 | 721 | 7.9 | 4 | 121 | 6.0 |
| Aaron Jones, G.B. | 26 | 206 | 7.9 | 1 | 35 | 5.9 |
| Ty Montgomery, 2 tms | 25 | 235 | 9.4 | 0 | 40 | 5.9 |
| David Johnson, Ariz. | 50 | 446 | 8.9 | 3 | 76 | 5.9 |
| Trenton Cannon, NYJ | 17 | 144 | 8.5 | 0 | 25 | 5.8 |
| Alfred Blue, Hou. | 20 | 154 | 7.7 | 0 | 27 | 5.7 |
| Jordan Howard, Chi. | 20 | 145 | 7.3 | 0 | 26 | 5.6 |
| Kerryon Johnson, Det. | 32 | 213 | 6.7 | 1 | 39 | 5.5 |
| Isaiah Crowell, NYJ | 21 | 152 | 7.2 | 0 | 28 | 5.4 |
| Latavius Murray, Min. | 22 | 141 | 6.4 | 0 | 26 | 5.4 |
| Devontae Booker, Den. | 38 | 275 | 7.2 | 0 | 51 | 5.4 |
| Joe Mixon, Cin. | 43 | 296 | 6.9 | 1 | 55 | 5.4 |
| Nyheim Hines, Ind. | 63 | 425 | 6.7 | 2 | 81 | 5.2 |
| Theo Riddick, Det. | 61 | 384 | 6.3 | 0 | 74 | 5.2 |
| LeSean McCoy, Buff. | 34 | 238 | 7.0 | 0 | 46 | 5.2 |
| Nick Chubb, Clev. | 20 | 149 | 7.5 | 2 | 29 | 5.1 |
| Phillip Lindsay, Den. | 35 | 241 | 6.9 | 1 | 47 | 5.1 |
| Jamaal Williams, G.B. | 27 | 210 | 7.8 | 0 | 41 | 5.1 |
| Mike Davis, Sea. | 34 | 214 | 6.3 | 1 | 42 | 5.1 |
| Chris Thompson, Was. | 41 | 268 | 6.5 | 1 | 55 | 4.9 |
| Doug Martin, Oak. | 18 | 116 | 6.4 | 0 | 24 | 4.8 |
| Ito Smith, Atl. | 27 | 152 | 5.6 | 0 | 32 | 4.8 |
| Lamar Miller, Hou. | 25 | 163 | 6.5 | 1 | 35 | 4.7 |
| Javorius Allen, Balt. | 35 | 196 | 5.6 | 2 | 43 | 4.6 |
| Giovani Bernard, Cin. | 35 | 218 | 6.2 | 0 | 48 | 4.5 |
| Chase Edmonds, Ariz. | 20 | 103 | 5.2 | 0 | 23 | 4.5 |
| Marlon Mack, Ind. | 17 | 103 | 6.1 | 1 | 26 | 4.0 |
| Peyton Barber, T.B. | 20 | 92 | 4.6 | 1 | 29 | 3.2 |
As I've mentioned before, I'm not optimistic about Jones pushing Barber aside. He averaged a pitiful 1.9 yards per attempt last season (23 carries for 44 yards), and if we included him and his 9 targets on the above table, he'd slot in ahead of only Barber (he turned them into 7 catches for 33 yards, which is 3.7 yards per target).
So in my dynasty league, I picked up undrafted rookie Bruce Anderson. The North Dakota State product has good size (5-11, 207), and rushed for 2,140 yards and 21 TD as the team's starter for most of the last two seasons. Didn't show enough natural ability to get drafted, but hey, neither did Barber.
Tampa Bay also has Andre Ellington, who maybe becomes a factor as a third-down back. And the only safe back to select here seems to be Barber, who doesn't have any superstar talent pushing him. But it's a backfield to monitor closely in the preseason. I don't think there are any sure things.
--Andy Richardson