Andrew Luck retires. Is this a disaster? Or a wonderful, wonderful opportunity?
When these kind of developments occur, the initial tendency is to panic, assuming the team will fall apart. And Luck is generally considered one of the game’s top half dozen quarterbacks.
Then they start playing the games, and it ends up the difference between Player A and Player B isn’t as severe as what many were expecting.
Consider Carson Wentz. When he was lost with a torn ACL in 2017, the assumption was the Eagles were dead in the water. And that was reasonable, given Nick Foles’ spotty play in recent years. But Foles held up just fine in the playoffs, then outplayed Wentz again last year.
Note: offensive coordinator of Philadelphia’s Super Bowl team was Frank Reich, who’s the same guy who’s now in charge of replacing Luck.
Jacoby Brissett isn’t garbage. While the Patriots gave him away just prior to the start of the 2017 season, he’s been the game for a few years and looks like he knows what he’s doing. I look at Brissett far more favorably than I did Foles when he was replacing Wentz.
I just re-watched all of Brissett’s preseason plays. I see a guy who’s very much in play to step in and do a fair imitation of Luck. Most of his throws have been shorter and underneath, but that’s what they had Luck doing last year. I saw two throws that were off target – where the guy was open, Brissett had time to throw, and simply missed him. But I saw a couple of others that were what you would call plus throws. A touchdown to Eric Ebron despite good coverage. And a fourth-down throw into a tight window.
I like Brissett’s mobility. Three times in this preseason, he’s been able to escape out of what appeared to be certain sacks and deliver throws. He’s more mobile than Luck. I have skimmed over the 31 other starting quarterbacks, and I see only 10 that are more mobile than Brissett. That includes Marcus Mariota, who doesn’t seem to be as good at using his mobility to avoid sacks.
Mostly this is about coaching. It matters. The Colts have Frank Reich drawing up the plays, and he’s proven himself to be one of the game’s top few offensive minds. Reich played a key role in Philadelphia’s big season two years ago, and it was Reich who helped get Luck going last year. Under Reich’s direction, the Colts improved from last to first in sacks (56 in 2017, and just 18 last year).
In the last two years, only eight offenses have finished with at least 350 fantasy points (standard scoring). Reich is the only coach or player who’s got his fingerprints on two of those eight offenses (see chart below).
If you believed that Luck was going to average something along the lines of 280 passing yards, with perhaps 34 TD passes, then it’s very logical to conclude that Brissett conversatively should be in the running 260 yards per game, with perhaps 27 TD passes. I will concede that he’s unproven, but I’m thinking Brissett should be one of the first 15 quarterbacks selected in drafts.
| OFFENSES WITH 300-PLUS PASSING POINTS (last 2 years) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Pct | Yards | TD | Int | Points |
| 2018 | Kansas City | 66.0% | 5,126 | 50 | 12 | 456.3 |
| 2018 | Tampa Bay | 65.3% | 5,358 | 36 | 26 | 411.9 |
| 2018 | Pittsburgh | 66.6% | 5,174 | 35 | 17 | 398.7 |
| 2018 | Atlanta | 69.4% | 4,949 | 36 | 7 | 391.5 |
| 2018 | Indianapolis | 67.1% | 4,595 | 39 | 15 | 385.8 |
| 2018 | LA Rams | 64.8% | 4,730 | 32 | 12 | 364.5 |
| 2017 | New England | 66.3% | 4,619 | 32 | 8 | 359.0 |
| 2017 | Philadelphia | 60.5% | 3,967 | 38 | 9 | 350.4 |
| 2018 | LA Chargers | 68.0% | 4,316 | 32 | 12 | 343.8 |
| 2017 | Pittsburgh | 65.1% | 4,534 | 29 | 15 | 342.7 |
| 2018 | Philadelphia | 70.5% | 4,524 | 29 | 11 | 342.2 |
| 2018 | New Orleans | 73.4% | 4,174 | 33 | 7 | 340.7 |
| 2017 | LA Chargers | 62.8% | 4,551 | 28 | 11 | 339.6 |
| 2017 | Detroit | 65.6% | 4,470 | 29 | 11 | 339.5 |
| 2018 | New England | 65.9% | 4,405 | 29 | 11 | 336.3 |
| 2017 | Seattle | 61.3% | 3,979 | 34 | 12 | 335.0 |
| 2018 | Minnesota | 70.1% | 4,298 | 30 | 10 | 334.9 |
| 2017 | Tampa Bay | 62.5% | 4,607 | 26 | 14 | 334.4 |
| 2018 | Green Bay | 61.3% | 4,629 | 25 | 4 | 331.5 |
| 2018 | Cleveland | 61.5% | 4,261 | 29 | 17 | 329.1 |
| 2017 | Kansas City | 66.9% | 4,326 | 26 | 8 | 320.3 |
| 2018 | San Francisco | 62.2% | 4,247 | 26 | 20 | 316.4 |
| 2018 | Carolina | 67.1% | 4,071 | 28 | 16 | 315.6 |
| 2017 | LA Rams | 61.8% | 4,023 | 28 | 7 | 313.2 |
| 2017 | Washington | 64.3% | 4,093 | 27 | 13 | 312.7 |
| 2018 | Seattle | 65.6% | 3,448 | 35 | 7 | 312.4 |
| 2018 | Houston | 68.2% | 4,165 | 26 | 9 | 312.3 |
| 2018 | NY Giants | 65.5% | 4,405 | 23 | 12 | 312.3 |
| 2017 | New Orleans | 72.0% | 4,334 | 23 | 8 | 308.7 |
—Ian Allan