INDIANAPOLIS (at LA Chargers)
Andrew Luck retired, and that's caused some people to simply write off the Colts. The line on this game opened with them as a 3-point underdog, which bettors quickly took up to 7. But everything else remains in place from a team ...
... that lost to a juggernaut Kansas City team in the divisional round a year ago, plus the Chargers are dealing with some personnel absences of their own. The Colts may not win, but their offense should have some success. ... Jacoby Brissett isn't a great quarterback. But he's got a year of starting experience, and a year working in Frank Reich's quarterback-friendly offense -- the system that helped Luck to his best season and the Eagles win a Lombardi the previous season. The Colts believe in Brissett enough to give
This report is taken from today's Week 1 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
Haven't ordered yet? BUY IT NOW! Already a subscriber? LOG IN!
him a new two-year, $30 million contract on Monday. And the Chargers are adjusting to being without All-Pro safety Derwin James in their secondary, which could loosen things up a little for him. Rather than look at 2017, when Brissett was struggling in an offense that allowed a league-high 56 sacks, look at this offense under Reich last year (a league-low 18 sacks). Things will definitely be better for the quarterback this go-around. Granted, it's a tough matchup. The Chargers have one of the league's better pass rushing duos in Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, and they're got quality starters almost everywhere else (Adrian Phillips, replacing James, should be OK). No doubt they'll be coming after Brissett, but he's working behind a much better line these days. Average passing production looks reasonable. Brissett's also a runner; when he started 15 games two years ago, he averaged 17 rushing yards and scored 4 TDs on the ground. ... The Chargers had a top-10 run defense a year ago, but James was part of that, and even then they allowed 4.3 yards per carry, which is average. So it's an OK matchup for Marlon Mack. Tendency might be to underestimate him, since he won't play full-time and is in an offense typically better at passing it (7th a year ago) than running it (20th). But that might change a little with Luck out of the picture, and Mack seems to have the necessary talent. He averaged 4.7 yards per carry a year ago, with 10 TDs in 12 games. A below-average matchup, but not one that should completely shut him down. Biggest potential drag on Mack is probably Nyheim Hines. In passing situations, and when the team is behind (more likely on the road against a tough opponent), Hines should be in the game. A year ago he caught 63 passes, and if you're comfortable with the point spread and expect the Colts to lose, he could be especially productive. The Colts went 10-6 last season, and Hines was awfully busy in those losses.
| Hines receiving in losses | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Opp | No | Yds | TD |
| Cin. | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| at Phi. | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Hou. | 9 | 63 | 2 |
| at N.E. | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| at NYJ | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| at Jac. | 9 | 50 | 0 |
Not a given that Indianapolis will lose, as previously laid out, but some potential for Hines to be a viable option in deeper leagues. ... Fair to be a little nervous about T.Y. Hilton. Brissett could be very comfortable in Reich's offense, but he still needs to prove he can connect on the deeper throws that are key to Hilton's value. When Brissett was the starter two years ago, Hilton had career lows as a starter in catches, yards and touchdowns. On the other hand, he still fell only just short of 1,000 yards, and he averaged 16.9 yards per catch (2nd-highest of his career). And it's a much better offense and line holding off pass rushers now. Devin Funchess will be the No. 2, at least at the start of the year. Second-rounder Parris Campbell missed a lot of the preseason and will need some time to get up to speed. But Funchess looked decent in August, catching 4 passes for 48 yards in the two games he appeared in, and his size (6-4, 225) could make him an appealing target. Chester Rogers will play in the slot, although the Colts will likely use plenty of sets with two tight ends. Not a favorable matchup for these wideouts (a better-than-average 14 TDs allowed to wide receivers by this defense a year ago) but not a killer. ... The Colts threw 21 TDs to tight ends a year ago, 8 more than any other team. That's not sustainable, but if you drafted Eric Ebron, it's hard to ignore that production. Ebron scored in 11 of the team's games a year ago (including the playoffs), with 15 total touchdowns. Different quarterback, granted. Another concern for Ebron is that Jack Doyle is now healthy, and he should play plenty. When he and Brissett played together in 2017, Doyle caught 80 balls. But that was in a different offense, and before Ebron joined the team. Doyle should continue to be a checkdown option, but unlikely he's that productive. ... Adam Vinatieri averaged under 7 kicking points a year ago, but that was in an offense better at scoring touchdowns than settling for field goals, and it should take a step back this season. Only nine teams allowed fewer field goals than the Chargers last year, though, so not a great-looking matchup. ... The Colts Defense could surprise this season. It was a lot better in both yards and points allowed the second half of last season, and its pass rush -- average a year ago -- should get a boost from the addition of Justin Houston. They might find out quickly, with the Chargers missing left tackle Russell Okung. Philip Rivers was sacked just 32 times a year ago, but he's a year older and his protection will be worse. Colts were slightly above average in interceptions last season, but Rivers has been relatively careful with the football the last two seasons, averaging 11 interceptions (he was more apt to force things in the middle part of his career).