DETROIT (at Green Bay)
This is a below-average situation for the Lions. Green Bay's defense has mostly played very well, struggling only against the Eagles (who ran it better than Detroit is capable of) and then giving up a lot of late, meaningless production against Dallas. In its other games ...
.... this defense allowed 3, 16 and 16 points, and a total of 4 TDs. Maybe the Lions will also put up some late production after falling behind, but Green Bay's offense hasn't been a high-powered group. Oddsmakers numbers suggest a 26-20 type of game, so probably no more than 2 TDs for Detroit. ... It's a good matchup for Kerryon Johnson. The Packers rank 26th in run defense. They've been chewed up for an average of 161 yards in their last four, with 6 TDs on the ground. Johnson also ....
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... comes off his best rushing performance, going for 125 yards (and averaging 4.8 yards per attempt) against Kansas City. His goal-line fumble was pivotal in that loss, but he ran well, and this is a similarly suspect run defense. Johnson won't play full-time. He got a little over two-thirds of the snaps against Kansas City, with J.D. McKissic taking most of the rest. But he'll get most of the carries (26 of 33 running back carries that game), and is the favorite to score. He also caught as many passes (2) in the last game as McKissic (1) and Ty Johnson (1) combined -- neither of those backs should have much of a role. Johnson was effective in his lone game against Green Bay last year (12 for 70); LeGarrette Blount scored twice in that game. ... Matthew Stafford has fared pretty well against this opponent in recent years. He's thrown multiple touchdowns against Green Bay in nine straight meetings (2 TDs six times, 3 TDs three times). And the Packers, after allowing just 1 TD pass their first three games, have allowed 5 to Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott the last two. But it's a better Green Bay pass defense than in the past, with a better pass rush (15 sacks) and better coverage (7 interceptions). We're putting Stafford down for average yards and 1-2 TDs, with 2 just a little more likely. The Lions have scored 9 of 10 TDs on passes versus runs, but Green Bay has allowed 6 of each. With the Packers better against the pass than run thus far, we're wary of gong too high with Stafford. Though he threw for multiple scores in both games last year, he passed for a modest 183 and 266 yards (both Lions wins). Green Bay seems better on both sides of the ball now. The Packers won't have first-round safety Darnell Savage, which should help a little. ... Four of the 6 TDs thrown against the Packers have gone to wide receivers, and the Lions have a solid group. Kenny Golladay averages a modest 61 yards, but has caught 4 TDs, including a highlight reel grab against Kansas City. He's faced Green Bay twice in his career and he scored and went over 80 yards in both games. Marvin Jones has an even better history against the Packers in his three years as a Lion, and oddly his best games came at Lambeau Field.
| Jones versus Green Bay | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Site | No | Yds | TD |
| 2016 | G.B. | 6 | 205 | 2 |
| 2016 | Det. | 5 | 76 | 0 |
| 2017 | G.B. | 7 | 107 | 2 |
| 2017 | Det. | 4 | 81 | 1 |
| 2018 | Det. | 1 | 8 | 1 |
Jones even scored against the Packers way back in 2013, as a Bengal. He and Golladay both missed the Week 17 game at Lambeau last year. Green Bay pass defense is better now, making it hard for both wideouts to live up to those resumes. But they'll likely dominate targets. Danny Amendola should return in the slot after sitting out the last game with a chest injury. He was practicing some prior to that game, and had the bye week as well. Amendola excited with a 7 for 104 game in the opener, but that was against a gutted Arizona secondary. Just 4 catches in two games since then, well behind Golladay and Jones in the pecking order. ... T.J. Hockenson had a big opener (6 for 131 with a TD), but just 5 catches and 1 TD since. Three of those grabs came in the last game, but he was knocked out of that one with a concussion and shoulder injury. Detroit is coming off a bye, but it's not certain he'll be available. If he sits out, it will translate into more touches for Jesse James and Logan Thomas. ... Matt Prater has at least 9 kicking points three times in four games. Lesser matchup, though, with the Packers allowing just 4 field goals and 4 kicking points. Prater had 7 kicking points in a Week 17 win at Lambeau last year, but more notably he threw an 8-yard touchdown pass (which probably won't happen again). ... The Lions Defense shouldn't do much. Green Bay's new offense seems designed to the run the ball and keep Aaron Rodgers from getting hit. The Bears sacked hm 5 times in the opener; he's taken just 5 sacks since. Just 1 interception and 2 lost fumbles on the season. Detroit does get a boost from Jamal Agnew returning kicks; he has a touchdown already this season.