The Patriots score three short rushing touchdowns on Thursday night, and Sony Michel didn’t get any of them. Is this is a sign of things to come? Or simply a statistical aberration?
Michel misfired on a couple of short-yardage plays early in the game. He was stopped on third-and-one, and then stopped on fourth-and-one, with the Patriots turning the ball over on downs. The Patriots don’t have a great offensive line right now, but in that situation, it looked as if a better back would have figured out a way to move the sticks.
Those carries might have played in a role in the play-calling later in the game. Veteran Brandon Bolden later got 2 carries near the goal line, lining up at tailback to bash the ball for 2 yards down to the goal line, then punching it in 2 plays later. Tom Brady has long been an effective quarterback sneaker, and he had 3 goal-line sneaks in the Giants game, scoring a pair of touchdowns.
The Patriots a few weeks back lost fullback James Develin to a season-ending injury. In the New York game, his replacement – Jakob Johnson – also was lost for the season, limiting the team’s options.
To me, Michel looks like an ordinary back. He’s a former first-round pick, but he’s never played like it. He hasn’t been as dynamic or explosive as he was at Georgia. He’s been pretty ordinary, and I expect the Patriots will continue to mix and match, plugging in other backs to pick up some of the workload.
Brandon Bolden is primarily a special teams player, but I think he’ll continue to get a few touches and goal-line looks. He’s scored touchdowns three weeks in a row.
James White isn’t much of a factor as a runner. He might not run for 200 yards or 2 TDs all year; his job is to create mismatches as a pass catcher. He’ll probably catch 80-plus balls, but he’s very much a third-down back.
Rex Burkhead is their most versatile running back. After White, he’s their best pass-catching back, and he might also be their 2nd-best runner. When he’s been out there, he’s averaged more total yards than Michel or White. They used him some as a short-yardage back a few years back.
They drafted Damien Harris in the third round, and I thought he looked fine in the preseason. But they seem to be redshirting him; they haven’t been activating him. Presumably he’s working on his game and learning the offense, but it’s possible Harris will be left in mothballs until 2020.
Regardless, it doesn’t look like Michel will be consistently knocking in the 1- and 2-yard touchdown runs for the Patriots. So far this year, 38 running backs have carried the ball at least 3 times when their team has needed 1 yard to either score or keep a drive alive (on third or fourth down). Michel is only 4 of 7 on such plays, coming in behind 28 of those other 37 players.
On the numbers below, you’re seeing everything through the Thursday game.
| AND-ONE RUSHING | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Good | Att | Pct |
| Todd Gurley, LAR | 5 | 5 | 1.000 |
| Phillip Lindsay, Den. | 3 | 3 | 1.000 |
| Mark Ingram, Balt. | 3 | 3 | 1.000 |
| Kirk Cousins, Min. | 3 | 3 | 1.000 |
| Jordan Howard, Phil. | 4 | 4 | 1.000 |
| Jeff Wilson, S.F. | 3 | 3 | 1.000 |
| Jacoby Brissett, Ind. | 6 | 6 | 1.000 |
| Ezekiel Elliot, Dall. | 6 | 6 | 1.000 |
| Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 3 | 3 | 1.000 |
| Damien Williams, K.C. | 3 | 3 | 1.000 |
| Carlos Hyde, Hou. | 5 | 5 | 1.000 |
| Duke Johnson, Hou. | 7 | 8 | .875 |
| Carson Wentz, Phil. | 7 | 8 | .875 |
| Derrick Henry, Ten. | 6 | 7 | .857 |
| Tom Brady, N.E. | 4 | 5 | .800 |
| Joe Mixon, Cin. | 4 | 5 | .800 |
| Austin Ekeler, LAC | 4 | 5 | .800 |
| Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 4 | 5 | .800 |
| Josh Jacobs, Oak. | 6 | 8 | .750 |
| Gus Edwards, Balt. | 3 | 4 | .750 |
| Dalvin Cook, Min. | 3 | 4 | .750 |
| Marlon Mack, Ind. | 4 | 6 | .667 |
| LeVeon Bell, NYJ | 2 | 3 | .667 |
| Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 4 | 6 | .667 |
| Derek Watt, LAC | 2 | 3 | .667 |
| David Montgomery, Chi. | 2 | 3 | .667 |
| Andy Dalton, Cin. | 2 | 3 | .667 |
| LeSean McCoy, K.C. | 3 | 5 | .600 |
| Sony Michel, N.E. | 4 | 7 | .571 |
| Kerryon Johnson, Det. | 4 | 7 | .571 |
| Chris Carson, Sea. | 4 | 7 | .571 |
| Frank Gore, Buff. | 2 | 4 | .500 |
| Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 2 | 4 | .500 |
| Aaron Jones, G.B. | 2 | 4 | .500 |
| James Conner, Pitt. | 2 | 5 | .400 |
| Wayne Gallman, NYG | 1 | 3 | .333 |
| Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 1 | 4 | .250 |
| Adrian Peterson, Was. | 1 | 4 | .250 |
Michel was not good in these situations last year either. The Patriots went to him 23 times when they were looking for a tough yard, and he was able to come through only 12 times. There were 38 players with at least 8 of those carries, and he ranked 30th.
| AND-ONE RUSHING (2018 SEASON) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Good | Att | Pct |
| Joe Flacco, Balt. | 9 | 9 | 1.000 |
| Josh Allen, Buff. | 9 | 9 | 1.000 |
| Drew Brees, N.O. | 9 | 9 | 1.000 |
| Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 9 | 10 | .900 |
| Cam Newton, Car. | 7 | 8 | .875 |
| Melvin Gordon, LAC | 7 | 8 | .875 |
| Sam Darnold, NYJ | 7 | 8 | .875 |
| Derrick Henry, Ten. | 12 | 14 | .857 |
| Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 11 | 13 | .846 |
| Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 10 | 12 | .833 |
| Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 9 | 11 | .818 |
| Adrian Peterson, Was. | 8 | 10 | .800 |
| James Conner, Pitt. | 16 | 21 | .762 |
| Todd Gurley, LAR | 14 | 19 | .737 |
| Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 19 | 26 | .731 |
| Phillip Lindsay, Den. | 8 | 11 | .727 |
| David Johnson, Ariz. | 12 | 17 | .706 |
| Chris Carson, Sea. | 19 | 27 | .704 |
| Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 7 | 10 | .700 |
| Saquon Barkley, NYG | 9 | 13 | .692 |
| Joe Mixon, Cin. | 14 | 21 | .667 |
| Jordan Howard, Chi. | 12 | 18 | .667 |
| Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 6 | 9 | .667 |
| Marshawn Lynch, Oak. | 5 | 8 | .625 |
| Alfred Morris, S.F. | 5 | 8 | .625 |
| Marlon Mack, Ind. | 9 | 15 | .600 |
| LeGarrette Blount, Det. | 6 | 10 | .600 |
| Peyton Barber, T.B. | 5 | 9 | .556 |
| Nick Chubb, Clev. | 6 | 11 | .545 |
| Sony Michel, N.E. | 12 | 23 | .522 |
| Carlos Hyde, 2 tm | 7 | 14 | .500 |
| Alfred Blue, Hou. | 6 | 12 | .500 |
| Latavius Murray, Min. | 5 | 10 | .500 |
| Mark Ingram, N.O. | 5 | 10 | .500 |
| Doug Martin, Oak. | 5 | 10 | .500 |
| James White, N.E. | 4 | 8 | .500 |
| Austin Ekeler, LAC | 4 | 9 | .444 |
| Josh Adams, Phil. | 1 | 8 | .125 |
—Ian Allan