DETROIT (vs Minnesota)
We're expecting the Lions to finish with below-average numbers. They've scored 3 TDs in only two games, and both were against lesser defenses (Arizona, Kansas City). The offense has scored only 1, 2 and 2 touchdowns ...

... in its other three games. It's at home this week, but facing a defense that's better than any of those five. The Vikings allowed 3 TDs at Lambeau, but just 1-2 TDs in each of their other five. Only four defenses have allowed fewer yards than Minnesota, and only five have allowed fewer points. ... The Lions would like to run the ball with Kerryon Johnson, but they've been unable to get that going. They used mostly power formations with multiple tight ends on Monday night but couldn't get a ground game established against a bottom-10 Packers run defense. Setting aside one game against Kansas City (which ranks 30th against the run), the Lions have run for only 94, 86 and 56 yards in their last three games. It's just not happening. Johnson ...

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... ran for 125 yards against the leaky KC defense, but he's been under 50 yards in all four of their other games. A third of the way into the season, he's averaging 57 rushing and 25 receiving yards (at least with 3 TDs in five games -- they'll try him some around the goal line). This time around, they're playing a Minnesota defense that's definitely better against the run than four of the teams they've played. The Vikings rank 9th against the run, and they've allowed only one rushing touchdown all year. Looks like Johnson is headed for another game with under 50 rushing yards. ... The matchup isn't ideal for Matthew Stafford either. The Vikings are playing well right now, with a talented secondary and a good pass rush. The Vikings rank 8th against the pass, allowing just 241 yards per game. They've allowed 10 touchdown passes, at least, with the four best quarterbacks who've played against them all throwing a pair -- Rodgers, Ryan, Wentz, Carr. Minnesota allowed 1 TD pass in each of its other two games (Bears, Giants). With Minnesota having allowed a 10-1 mix of touchdowns passing to rushing and the Lions scoring at a 9-2 mix of pass-run, it sure looks like whatever touchdowns Detroit scores will come through the air. Stafford got shut out at Green Bay on Monday night, but he's been pretty good this year at putting the ball in the end zone, with 9 TD passes in his first four games. He's also averaging 277 passing yards. Looks like a middle-of-the-pack option this week. The Detroit offense didn't get the ball in the end zone in either Minnesota game last year, but we're not putting any weight in those games -- they had a lot of injuries and were running a different offense. ... It's a less than ideal situation for Kenny Golladay. The Vikings have a good pass defense, and they also have Xavier Rhodes, who's one of the game's better lockdown corners. But Rhodes hasn't been so good this year that it makes sense to shy away from Golladay. He's a talented receiver, and he's having a good year, averaging 73 yards, with 4 TDs in five games. As luck would have it, Minnesota in each of its six games has played an opponent with a clearly defined No. 1 receiver -- a top guy -- and those players have held up pretty well. They've all either scored or caught at least 5 passes. You ride with Golladay.

Marvin Jones is the other starting receiver, and he's a lesser version of the same player. He's averaging 59 yards, but with just one touchdown. Jones has actually finished with more yards than Golladay in three of the team's five games. They both played in one of the Minnesota games last year, and Jones finished with better numbers (6 catches for 66 yards). ... Danny Amendola had the big debut game at Arizona, but he's been an afterthought in the offense recently. In his last four, he's caught only 5 passes for 43 yards, with no touchdowns. They'll probably mix it up at some point, with Amendola catching a half dozen balls underneath, but we have no idea when that game might be coming (if at all). With the team using lots of power formations, Amendola was on the field for only a third of their plays on Monday night. ... T.J. Hockenson has caught 2 TDs, and he had his hands on another one in the end zone Monday night that he allowed to slip away. They'll use him around the goal line. And a year from now, he may develop into another George Kittle or Zach Ertz, catching 5 balls per week. But he's not filling that kind of role right now. Since debuting with a big game against an Arizona defense that's been historically bad against tight ends, Hockenson has caught only 9 passes for 56 yards in four games, with 1 TD. Minnesota has played 15 straight games without allowing a touchdown to a tight end, and they've seen some good ones this year -- Austin Hooper, Darren Waller, Evan Engram, Zach Ertz. ... We're ranking Matt Prater lower than usual; playing against Minnesota's defense is less than ideal. But the Vikings haven't been as good as away from home. They've won only 2 of their last 7 away from U.S. Bank Stadium, and they've allowed multiple field goals in just over half of those games. Prater kicked 5 field goals on Monday night, and he's kicked 3 field goals in each of his last three games against Minnesota. ... The Lions Defense looks like a below-average option this week. It's not a defense that creates much mayhem (sacks, turnovers), and the Vikings are playing well right now. Kirk Cousins has taken only 12 sacks in six games, with 3 interceptions. In his two games against the Lions last year, Cousins was involved in 3 sacks, an interception and a lost fumble. The Vikings this year have fumbled a league-high 15 times (3 more than any other team), but they've lost only 6 of those fumbles, and it's a trend probably fueled more by chance than anything they're doing wrong.