SEATTLE (at San Francisco)
Seattle's offense has been humming along all year, averaging over 3 touchdowns per week. Only twice has it failed to score 3 touchdowns in a game, and this is one of only two offenses ranking in the top 10 in ...
... both rushing and passing. But this is a situation where the probability of them scoring only 2 TDs goes way up. San Francisco's defense has been very tough thus far, allowing a league-low 241 yards per game. Only the Patriots have allowed fewer points. We're moving all Seattle players lower on the board for Week 10. ... Russell Wilson might currently be the front-runner for the MVP award, with 22 touchdowns versus only 1 interception. But this is a rare week where many holding the rights to Wilson can reasonably ...
This report is taken from today's Week 10 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 19 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... ponder whether to plug in a lesser quarterback with a better matchup. San Francisco's defense has been pretty awesome thus far, and it's done its best work against quarterbacks. The 49ers are allowing a league-low 169 passing yards per game, with only 7 TD passes. They've been helped along by scheduling, but they've faced some quarterbacks with some ability. Most notably, Jameis Winson (194 yards, 1 TD), Baker Mayfield (120, 0) and Jared Goff (78, 0) all had disaster games against this defense. Kyler Murray was headed for one of those games last week until a fourth-quarter pass to Andy Isabella turned into an 88-yard touchdown, helping him to 241 yards and 2 TDs. So it would be a surprise if Wilson comes anywhere close to his usual averages (which right now are 278 yards per game, with 2.44 TD passes). Against this defense, something more along the lines of 250 yards and probably 2 TDs seems more realistic. Wilson also contributes as a runner; he's averaging 23 rushing yards, with 3 TDs in nine games. Tough to sit down a special player, but we're slotting him behind a few other quarterbacks this week. ... The matchup isn't as damning for the running game. The 49ers rank 14th in run defense, allowing 103 yards per week, with 3 TDs (all in their last four games). Picking through the week-by-week results, there isn't a week where they've dramatically crushed it. They held the Browns to 102 rushing yards; that was probably their top game. The Rams and Washington ran for 109 and 104 yards, but those aren't top-level running games. San Francisco hasn't been special recently, allowing 130 and 153 rushing yards to Carolina and Arizona the last two weeks. So this looks like a pretty typical matchup for Chris Carson. He's had a few issues with fumbles, but he's having a good year, averaging 85 rushing and 20 receiving yards, with 4 TDs in nine games. He's run for at least 90 yards in five of his last six. Those with Carson shouldn't be looking to duck this defense. The Seahawks also will mix in Rashaad Penny some, but this hasn't been the one-two punch that many were expecting. Penny has run for more than 20 yards in only two of his six games. ... With this being a tougher spot for the passing game, we're slotting the wide receivers lower than usual. But Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf have been playing well enough that they will grade out as starters for many fantasy teams anyway. Lockett is averaging 85 yards, with 6 TDs. Metcalf isn't used as extensively; he's averaging only 58 yards. But they like looking to Metcalf's size around the goal line. The rookie has caught 5 TDs (only one fewer than Lockett). The Seahawks added Josh Gordon last week, and he'll probably be mixed in for a few plays -- perhaps running some long routes down the sidelines. If Gordon picks things up quickly, he might immediately play more than their other receivers -- David Moore, Jaron Brown and Malik Turner. In the first nine games, that trio has combined for 31 catches for 462 yards and 3 TDs -- that's the party Gordon is trying to crash. ... Jacob Hollister might turn into a sneaky good tight end. Will Dissly was having a Pro Bowl season, with 4 TDs, and now Hollister could be moving into that role. Hollister in three games has caught 9 passes for 75 yards and 2 TDs. If Hollister is, in fact, their new tight end, he might post top-10 numbers at his position in the second half of the season. But probably best to leave him benched here, considering the quality of the opponent. The Seahawks also could activate Ed Dickson for this game; he could carve out a decent role, possibly at Hollister's expense. We're thinking Hollister is looking pretty good, but probably best to leave him parked on benches for Week 10. ... Jason Myers was a below-average kicker in the 2016-17 seasons for the Jaguars; they got rid of him. Then Myers put together a Pro Bowl season with the Jets, including 6 field goals from at least 54 yards. That prompted the Seahawks to sign him to a big contract including $7 million in guaranteed money. But Myers this year has been more like the Jacksonville version. He's converted only 71 percent of his field goals. Against Tampa Bay, he missed an extra point and 2 field goals (including a game-winner). Pete Carroll says they'll let Myers kick his way out of his slump (what choice do they have?) but this is a lesser matchup anyway. Only two defenses have allowed fewer kicking points than the 49ers. ... The Seahawks Defense looks like a bottom-10 option. Pete Carroll has a reputation for putting together good defenses, but he's been unable to get this group dialed in. There's not enough pass rush, with only 15 sacks in nine games. The 49ers have some offensive line injuries, but they've allowed only 12 sacks (only three teams have allowed fewer).