ATLANTA (at Carolina)
Atlanta might be looking to use a different offensive style in the second half of the season. In their first nine games, they passed the ball more often than any other team. They came out on Sunday looking ...
... to be more patient with the ground game -- running the ball more often and more effectively than they had all season. We'll probably see more of that approach in the final seven weeks. But this is a now a modest offense, and one that's different than in September and October. Mohamed Sanu is gone, Ito Smith is on IR, and Devonta Freeman and Austin Hooper are out with injuries. After scoring 3-4 TDs in four of five games, the Falcons have scored only 1, 2 and 2 TDs in their last three, and none of those opponents rank in the top 10 in scoring defense. So probably below-average production here, but this defense isn't anything special either. Carolina ranks ...
This report is taken from today's Week 11 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 19 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... 20th in yards allowed, and only 10 teams have allowed more points. It's a defense that's allowed at least 3 TDs in five straight games. We're thinking 2-3 TDs for the Falcons, but with 2 more likely. ... Brian Hill will start at tailback, and he shouldn't be underestimated. The Falcons rank only 29th in rushing, but they might be a lot better than that. It's not that they can't run the ball; they just haven't chosen to do so for the bulk of the season. That changed on Sunday, with the Falcons shockingly carrying 34 times for 143 yards on the road against a New Orleans defense that ranked in the top 5 in run defense. They came out heavily emphasizing the run and stuck with it. Even after Devonta Freeman left with an ankle injury, they continued to feed carries to Hill; he had 16 attempts in the second half. Hill wasn't particularly effective, gaining only 61 yards on his 20 carries, but he's been effective in the past. When the Falcons last played at this stadium, Hill came off the bench and carried 8 times for 114 yards, with a 60-yard touchdown. And he played well enough in the preseason to beat out fifth-rounder Qadree Ollison for the 3rd-string tailback job. Hill is a functional back who would be worth a roster spot with most teams. And here he's working against a defense that's been a lesser group against the run all along. Only three defenses have allowed more rushing yards, and the Panthers have given up a league-high 17 rushing touchdowns -- 5 more than everyone else. The Falcons will mix in some other backs, but Hill is very much a candidate for top-15 running back numbers. ... With Matt Ryan firing balls all over the place, the Falcons are averaging 320 passing yards, 2nd-most in the league. And he's thrown 17 TDs in his eight games. But that version of Ryan might be gone. If the Falcons are now running the ball more often, that will also translate into fewer pass attempts. Ryan finished with only 182 yards and 2 TDs last week. In his previous game, they passed for only 224 yards and a touchdown against the Rams. Gone for now, it seems, are the days of Ryan putting up 300-plus yards and multiple touchdown passes week after week. They might be playing with a different personality now. Such an approach would make a lot of sense this week. Carolina's defense has struggled against the run for most of the season, allowing over 160 rushing yards in three of their losses. The Panthers rank 12th against the pass, and have allowed only 10 TD passes in nine games -- 7 fewer TD passes than touchdown runs. And Ryan will be playing without three of his top 5 pass catchers (Freeman, Hooper and Sanu). We're putting him down for modest passing stats -- 245 yards and 1-2 TDs. ... The Falcons will be without Austin Hooper. He's led the team with 56 catches, including a team-high 6 TDs. They don't have another tight end with that kind of receiving ability. Luke Stocker and Jaeden Graham will be asked to do more, but neither seems to have any chance of being a top-20 player at the position. ... It's a lesser situation for the wide receivers in that we're thinking the Falcons won't pass as much as they have for the bulk of the season. We don't expect Ryan will make a run at 300 yards. But the wide receivers should at least have to carry more of the load. That is, the pie will be smaller, but they'll account for bigger slices. Austin Hooper, Devonta Freeman and Mohamed Sanu have combined for 127 catches, with 10 TD grabs, and those guys aren't playing. So when Matt Ryan is throwing, he should more often look for his wide receivers. Julio Jones, most notably, hasn't scored in his last six games, but he'll probably now see a lot more looks in the red zone. Prior to this recent scoring slump, Jones had caught touchdowns in seven straight games. Jones is averaging 88 yards per game; he caught 3 passes for 79 yards last week in the run-oriented win at New Orleans. Calvin Ridley has been a disappointment, averaging only 52 yards, with 4 TDs. In four of his nine games, he hasn't had more than 32 receiving yards -- a remarkably light workload for a starting receiver on a team averaging 320 passing yards. Ridley should now see an uptick in usage. And Russell Gage might be one of the league's most productive slot receivers in the second half of the season. Since the Falcons moved Sanu, Gage has caught 11 passes for 81 yards in two games. Not many teams will have three wide receivers who catch more passes than Gage the rest of the way. ... Younghoe Koo hit all 4 of his field goals in his first game, but the Falcons have been off more often than on this year. They averaged only 5.4 kicking points in their other eight games. Carolina has been average against kickers, allowing just under 7 points per week. ... The Falcons Defense put together one of the most surprising games in NFL history on Sunday, limiting New Orleans to only 9 points while snapping the Saints six-game winning streak (and also ending their own six-game losing streak). Atlanta got 6 sacks in that game, despite having only 7 sacks in their first eight games combined. Weird. Now they play against a quarterback with some tendency to take sacks and turn the ball over. Kyle Allen has taken 23 sacks in his seven starts, with 5 lost fumbles and 5 interceptions (all in the last three weeks). But with the Falcons, we're giving more weight to the overall body of work. Despite the nice game in the Superdome, Atlanta is tied for next-to-last in sacks and ranks last in takeaways.