INDIANAPOLIS (vs Carolina)
The Colts have fallen flat recently, scoring 17, 17 and 7 points in three of their last four games. But this looks like a game where they can bounce back. Carolina has completely fallen apart; only six defenses have allowed more ...
... yards, and only three have allowed more points. The Panthers have been particularly bad recently, allowing at least 29 points in five straight games. ... Marlon Mack in particular looks great. He's run for only 38 and 19 yards in his last two games, but both of those opponents had top-4 run defenses. The Panthers, on the other hand, have the worst run defense in the league nowadays. Only two teams have allowed more rushing yards, and Carolina has allowed 26 rushing touchdowns -- 7 more than every other team. ...
This report is taken from today's Week 16 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 21 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... Of the 31 other teams, the Panthers have allowed twice as many rushing touchdowns as all but eight of them. Carolina has allowed multiple rushing touchdowns in over half of their games. The Colts at times have shown a preference and ability to pound out games by running the ball. In five games they've run for over 165 yards (with 7 TD runs in those games). This sure looks like one of those games, with Mack probably running for 100-plus and a touchdown. They'll mix in some other backs -- Jordan Wilkins, Nyheim Hines -- but he's their guy and has shown he can fill this kind of role. Mack in his first 10 games averaged 86 rushing yards. We'd have him ranked higher if they used him much in the passing game (he's caught only 12 passes in 12 games). ... As poorly as Carolina has played against the run, we have no interest in Jacoby Brissett. If the Colts are able to run (and we're confident they will) they likely won't pass enough to make top-20 quarterbacking numbers possible. Previously this year, the Colts have run for over 165 yards in five games; they didn't pass for more than 190 yards in any of those weeks. Brissett in those five games averaged only 153 passing yards, with only 6 TD passes. If you start Brissett, it's with the real possibility that you stumble into one of those games. Brissett has averaged 279 passing yards and 2 TDs in his other six full games, but unlikely that the Panthers will force him to put up those kind of numbers by stopping the run. ... If our run-pass hunch on this game is correct, best to stay well away from all of the pass catchers. T.Y. Hilton isn't 100 percent anyway. Working his way back from a calf injury, he was an ineffective part-time player on Monday night. He was on the field for only slightly more than half of the team's plays (three other Indianapolis wide receivers saw more playing time). Hilton has big play ability, and they're using him in the red zone more than they have in the past. That's enough to make him a candidate to start in larger leagues; but it's not a great situation for him. Zach Pascal, Marcus Johnson and Dontrelle Inman should also play plenty, but none are guys anybody wants to start this week. Pascal has caught 18 passes for 227 yards and a touchdown in his last three games, but he's benefited from Hilton being injured (and the Colts passed for 319 and 251 yards in two of those games -- which won't happen this week). ... WIth Eric Ebron out for the year, Jack Doyle is getting more opportunities to catch passes. He's seen 22 targets in the last three games, resulting in 10 catches for 121 yards and a touchdown. But Doyle's big game came against the Titans, with the Colts falling behind and having to throw the ball all over the place. This doesn't look like one of those kind of games. ... If you're picking through the waiver wire, looking for a Week 16 kicker, Chase McLaughlin is one of the candidates to consider. With the way the Panthers have fallen apart, Indianapolis should win this game pretty easily. Only four teams have allowed more kicking points. ... The Panthers intend to put Will Grier in the starting lineup, and that makes the Colts Defense look like a very intriguing choice. Carolina has been struggling anyway; only one offense has allowed more sacks and only two have more turnovers. And any time you put an unprepared rookie behind center, good things can happen. This most recent Sunday, the Bucs and Eagles got touchdowns off rookie quarterbacks (David Blough, Dwayne Haskins). Grier didn't look ready for prime time in the preseason, with his 68 pass plays resulting in 7 sacks, 3 interceptions and a lost fumble. Indianapolis doesn't have a notable kick returner, but the defense certainly looks like a top-5 group.