NEW ENGLAND (vs Miami)
The Patriots have clinched the AFC East, but they need to win to ensure a first-round bye. They haven't tended to hold starters out of Week 17 anyway; now they definitely won't. They should ...
... win this game easily, so they might err on the side of caution with banged-up players, or look to get some an early seat. But their offense should be very good -- Miami is dead last in both yards and points allowed -- and the general lean is to try to take advantage of the matchup where possible. ... The Dolphins rank 27th in run defense, and would be worse but for all the games where teams have lit them up through the air, or had running games that weren't doing anything against anyone else, either. They've allowed over 125 rushing yards in more than half (eight) of their games, including the Patriots (126 yards, 2 TDs) in Week 2. That was one of New England's best rushing performances in the first 11 games, but over the past month -- as is usually the case late in the season -- they've cranked that ground game up. The last four weeks the Patriots have had their three top rushing performances of the season, going for 145, 175 and 143 yards. That's the kind of production to look for, with Sony Michel leading the way. He rushed for just 53 total ...
This report is taken from today's Week 17 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 21 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... yards in recent losses (Houston and Kansas City), but in New England's last three wins he went for 85, 89 and 96 yards. Michel has somehow failed to get in the end zone since Week 7; that's one negative. The team has given some chances near the goal line to Brandon Bolden (with Miami last season), and will also work in Rex Burkhead for some chances (97 total yards on 9 touches last week). James White will get most of the snaps in passing situations. With that in mind, Michel could have a good day running it but still can't be considered a favorite for any rushing scores. But definitely looks the kind of game where he should be productive, and the others also have some potential. In Week 2, Michel rushed for 85 yards and a touchdown, White caught a score, and Burkhead turned 7 touches into 68 total yards. ... If New England puts up big rushing numbers, Tom Brady won't do as much. That's the theory, anyway, but it's actually been wrong about as often as its been right. Here's Brady in New England's five best rushing performances.
| Brady when Pats run for 125-plus | ||
|---|---|---|
| Opp | Yards | TD |
| at Mia. | 264 | 3 |
| at Wash. | 348 | 3 |
| at Hou. | 326 | 3 |
| at Cin. | 128 | 2 |
| Buff. | 271 | 1 |
Touchdowns include a rushing score (at Miami). Four of those games were on the road, and the Houston game was a lopsided defeat (very unlikely here). But it's at least possible Brady will finish with good numbers even if New England is having success running it. Plus the Dolphins are godawful against the pass, allowing 275 yards per game and 37 touchdowns -- 2 more than any other team. Sam Darnold and Brian Hoyer: that's the list of quarterbacks not to throw multiple touchdowns against the Dolphins. Six straight opponents have thrown at least 2 TDs; four of them threw at least 3. We're putting Brady down for 250 yards and 2 TDs, which seems fair; below-average, actually, against this defense. ... New England's best wideout is probably the biggest risk for limited snaps. Julian Edelman is dealing with knee and shoulder issues; limited in practice, he's played 60-70 percent of the snaps the last two weeks (usually on the field full-time), totaling 81 yards, with no touchdowns (over 90 in each of his three previous games, with 2 scores). Not much doubt he'll play, but probably one of the likelier players to get an early seat if the game is in hand. Given that, N'Keal Harry looks intriguing, starting four of the last five and scoring twice in those games (with another where he was incorrectly ruled out of bounds). He's not seeing many targets (13 over those contests), but they're using him in the red zone and also getting the ball in his hands on end-arounds (4 for 40 the last two games). The Dolphins have allowed 27 touchdowns to wide receivers, 6 more than any other team and multiple scores to the position in six straight. Between Edelman's health and the general lack of involvement of Mohamed Sanu (under 25 yards in four straight, with no touchdowns) and Phillip Dorsett (14 snaps the last two games), Harry looks about as likely as any wideout to get in the end zone; at worst 2nd behind Edelman. ... Matt LaCosse and Benjamin Watson are both playing, but neither is a big part of the passing game. Both are averaging 13-16 yards over the last six games. LaCosse caught a short touchdown last week, just the second the team has thrown to the position all year. The matchup isn't as favorable as you might think, with the Dolphins allowing an ordinary 5 TDs to the position (compared to 32 to other players). ... After a shaky start, Nick Folk has settled down to make all 5 of his field goals the last two weeks. He's also perfect on extra points. As you might expect from the team that's allowed more points than any other team, that also includes kicking points (nearly 9 per game). Just 7 in the win at Miami, although Stephen Gostkowski missed from 48 in that one. ... The Patriots Defense has been pretty great all year, and should finish strong here. They had a pair of interception return touchdowns off Ryan Fitzpatrick in the earlier meeting, plus 2 more interceptions (one off Josh Rosen) and 7 sacks. Fitzpatrick is playing better now, but has still thrown 13 interceptions and taken 38 sacks in essentially 12 full games.