If the NFL had its druthers, Divisional Round weekend would be a crescendo building from good to great to classic in the final game. Instead we got bad to shocking to fun to pretty good, slightly marred by an officiating controversy (welcome to every close game in the NFL). Lots to unpack, here are some reactions.
49ers 27, Vikings 10. Seldom is a game even worse than a 27-10 final score, but I think this one qualifies. San Francisco having the bye week to get healthy -- when has a few inches ever mattered as much to a postseason as the last play of 49ers-Seahawks in Week 17, which gave San Fran the top seed -- and rested saw them send out a team that looks ready to cruise into the Super Bowl. It's a powerhouse running game and strong defense, while the Vikings have some nice skill guys and a pretty good defense, but not a comparable one, especially away from home.
Tevin Coleman had a big game, literally out of nowhere. The fact is that Kyle Shanahan could have put Jeff Wilson, Matt Breida, Raheem Mostert or Coleman out there and probably got 100 yards and 2 touchdowns. The family can design a running game. Can we trust Coleman to be featured against Green Bay next week? No we cannot. Mostert is about as likely. Probably not Breida, but I'd have said the same about Coleman two days ago.
Titans 28, Ravens 12. This was also a blowout, made suspenseful only because it was so shocking and because you knew Baltimore was always one 60-yard Lamar Jackson run or pass to Marquise Brown away from getting back into it. But it's very hard to win or build any momentum in an NFL game if you can't stop the opposing running back, and there's nobody having a postseason like Derrick Henry right now. For Tennessee to do what they've done on the ground two weeks in a row, passing for fewer than 100 yards while winning at AFC bullies New England and Baltimore, is unprecedented and incredible. Hats off to them.
As for controlling Baltimore's offense -- I realize "shutting down" is not quite accurate, Lamar Jackson finished with over 500 yards of total offense, but they only scored 12 points -- it's a reminder that every running quarterback, no matter how good, at some point runs into a defense that can either take it away or at least limit it. Yes: Jackson rushed for 143 yards. But at halftime he was at 27 yards, and one series into the third quarter the Titans were up 21-6. They slowed him down and frustrated him, and most of his damage was done after the game was all but in hand.
Mark Ingram wasn't healthy and neither was Mark Andrews. That was a factor. And Jackson's a young guy who still has more untapped potential (anyone else see that Geico commercial way too much?), and he'll be back and just as dangerous a year from now. But he's still got some steps to take as a passer, and maybe there was some overconfidence on both his and the rest of the team's part after the way they mowed through the schedule. And again: tough to win games when the opposing running back keeps ripping off first downs against your defense.
Kansas City 51, Texans 31. Talking to a friend before the game who was planning on placing a bet, I said, oh yeah, I'd definitely give 10.5 points with Kansas City. Was not feeling so good when Houston raced out to a 24-0 lead, but I still thought Kansas City was going to win. There's just not enough there on Houston's defense, and the 3-touchdown pitch-and-catch between Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce in the second quarter made me feel like I was watching a Pro Bowl game.
Like many Fantasy Index readers, I suspect, I watched Damien Williams score 3 touchdowns with something close to annoyance. Some of that production would have been nice in all the games this year when Kansas City was screwing around with LeSean McCoy, Darrel Williams, whoever else. I realize Williams was hurt at times, but there were some healthy games in there too when Andy Reid just decided to keep him up on blocks. I know, he doesn't care about our fantasy teams. Still since Kansas City wasn't the No. 1 seed and lucked into even getting a first-round bye, it's fair to criticize the guy. He's one home win away from a Super Bowl, fair play to him. No one will be surprised if he mucks it up. With Houston, well, Bill O'Brien is fortunate to have Deshaun Watson on his side. That should keep him employed and continue to keep him employed. But when every postseason eventually ends with a lopsided playoff loss (even when spotted 24 points) his ticket out of Houston will get punched eventually.
Packers 28, Seahawks 23. This game was pretty much exactly as expected, right down to the difference between Seattle covering a 4.5 point spread being about the worst 2-point conversion attempt in the history of 2-point conversion attempts. Yes, with the season on the line let's have Russell Wilson standing flat-footed 7 yards behind the line against a pass rush that's been all over him all game. Did the Packers catch a break on the Jimmy Graham spot, definitely. Should have been fourth and 1, which Green Bay would probably have gone for and probably picked up.
I guess Pete Carroll and diehard Seahawks fans can cling to the idea that if the ball was spotted correctly Green Bay would have been stopped the next play or punted (unlikely) and Wilson could have driven the field for the win. Since I'm neither a Packers nor Seahawks fan I can instead dwell on a couple of simply inexcusable plays where Wilson held the ball for an eternity, took costly sacks that you would rip a rookie a new one for, and say Seattle should feel bad about this loss all offseason, because it was a severe missed opportunity. A couple of smarter plays here and there, and oh yeah one fewer ugly drop on the part of Wilson's receivers, and Seattle probably wins this game in the final minute. But they left themselves no margin for error, and proceeded to make errors.
Aaron Rodgers threw one of the best passes you'll see to Davante Adams to keep their final drive going, and then Green Bay got the break on the Graham spot. End of the day, though, it's a way more balanced team than Seattle, which seems to be entirely built on Wilson freelancing and pulling plays out of his butt that sometimes result in wins and sometimes result in last-minute or last-second losses. Like O'Brien and Watson, Carroll is lucky he has a playmaker like Wilson. But when you're relying on one guy, you sometimes come up short when he screws up.
And that's the weekend, leaving us with one game a lot of us probably wanted (Packers-49ers), for all the great history, and one that no one expected (Titans-Kansas City) but should be really, really good. Early lines have the home teams favored by a touchdown. I realize San Francisco dominated the earlier meeting, and Kansas City's offense looked unstoppable yesterday. But my early thoughts are to take the points. Should be a couple of good ones.