The 2020 season is underway, and the Cardinals and Texans have made the first mega-move. DeAndre Hopkins heads to Arizona, while David Johnson heads to Houston.
It’s a blockbuster. One big enough to make me forget about the coronavirus pandemic (at least for a moment).
Arizona’s offense is starting to look like a group on the rise. With Hopkins and a bunch other contributors (Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk and others) they’ve got a decent enough group of wide receivers. And they’ll be bringing back Kenyan Drake to start at running back; they’ve got him protected with the transition tag.
Houston used Hopkins mainly as a short-range target last week; he averaged only 11.2 yards per reception (catching mostly short, quick throws). So I’m sure he’ll be fine in Arizona’s system. But not realistic to expect him to see the number of balls he’s caught in the past. Not in Arizona’s offense.
Using PPR scoring, Hopkins has authored 4 of the 31 best seasons by wide receivers in the last five years. Unlikely that he can reach those levels in 2020.
| BEST WIDE RECEIVER SEASONS (last 5 years) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rec | Yards | Avg | TD | PPR |
| 2015 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 136 | 1,834 | 13.5 | 11 | 392.2 |
| 2015 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 136 | 1,871 | 13.8 | 9 | 377.1 |
| 2019 | Michael Thomas, N.O. | 149 | 1,725 | 11.6 | 9 | 374.6 |
| 2015 | Brandon Marshall, NYJ | 109 | 1,502 | 13.8 | 14 | 343.2 |
| 2018 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 115 | 1,572 | 13.7 | 11 | 337.5 |
| 2018 | Tyreek Hill, K.C. | 87 | 1,479 | 17.0 | 14 | 334.0 |
| 2015 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 111 | 1,521 | 13.7 | 11 | 331.1 |
| 2018 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 113 | 1,677 | 14.8 | 8 | 329.9 |
| 2018 | Davante Adams, G.B. | 111 | 1,386 | 12.5 | 13 | 329.6 |
| 2018 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 104 | 1,297 | 12.5 | 15 | 323.7 |
| 2018 | Michael Thomas, N.O. | 125 | 1,405 | 11.2 | 9 | 319.5 |
| 2015 | Odell Beckham, NYG | 96 | 1,450 | 15.1 | 13 | 319.3 |
| 2017 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 96 | 1,378 | 14.4 | 13 | 311.8 |
| 2017 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 101 | 1,533 | 15.2 | 9 | 310.3 |
| 2018 | Adam Thielen, Min. | 113 | 1,373 | 12.2 | 9 | 309.3 |
| 2016 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 106 | 1,284 | 12.1 | 12 | 307.3 |
| 2016 | Jordy Nelson, G.B. | 97 | 1,257 | 13.0 | 14 | 306.7 |
| 2016 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 96 | 1,321 | 13.8 | 12 | 304.1 |
| 2015 | Allen Robinson, Jac. | 80 | 1,400 | 17.5 | 14 | 304.0 |
| 2018 | JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt. | 111 | 1,426 | 12.9 | 7 | 298.9 |
| 2016 | Odell Beckham, NYG | 101 | 1,367 | 13.5 | 10 | 298.6 |
| 2018 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 86 | 1,524 | 17.7 | 9 | 292.4 |
| 2015 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 109 | 1,215 | 11.2 | 9 | 284.5 |
| 2017 | Keenan Allen, LAC | 102 | 1,393 | 13.7 | 7 | 284.2 |
| 2019 | Chris Godwin, T.B. | 86 | 1,333 | 15.5 | 9 | 276.1 |
| 2015 | A.J. Green, Cin. | 86 | 1,297 | 15.1 | 10 | 275.7 |
| 2015 | Jarvis Landry, Mia. | 110 | 1,157 | 10.5 | 6 | 275.5 |
| 2019 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 99 | 1,394 | 14.1 | 6 | 274.1 |
| 2016 | T.Y. Hilton, Ind. | 91 | 1,448 | 15.9 | 6 | 273.8 |
| 2015 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 105 | 1,304 | 12.4 | 6 | 271.4 |
| 2019 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 104 | 1,165 | 11.2 | 7 | 270.6 |
| 2019 | Cooper Kupp, LAR | 94 | 1,161 | 12.4 | 10 | 270.5 |
Houston picks up a second-round pick in this deal, and I think that’s key. Without Hopkins, I don’t think that receiving corps is good enough. Will Fuller has had a lot of injuries, Kenny Stills is more of a contributor than a star, and the Texans soured at times last year on Keke Coutee (they demoted behind DeAndre Carter in a lot of games). They’ll have to add another wide receiver, and it’s a perfect draft to be addressing that position in early rounds.
Whatever wide receiver they add, of course, won’t be Hopkins, but he’ll be younger and cheaper.
And the Texans add more pass-catching ability at tailback. Carlos Hyde ran for 1,070 yards last year, but he can’t catch at all. Johnson is a major receiving threat if they can figure out how to properly use him; he caught 80 passes back in 2016.
—Ian Allan