DeAndre Hopkins was the headliner in the big Monday trade – a top-5 wide receiver, and going for less than a first-round pick. But there could be another notable player in that swap. Key is the question of whether David Johnson is still an elite back.
Johnson put up franchise numbers, of course, back in 2016, piling up 2,118 run-rec yards and 20 touchdowns. But that was four years ago – an eternity for an NFL running back. Johnson is 28 now, and the Cardinals kind of kicked him to the curb last year after trading for Kenyan Drake.
Johnson missed almost all of 2017 after breaking his wrist in their opener. Arizona was looking to unload his contract. He’s got a $10.2 million base this year, with a bonus putting him over $11 million.
The Texans, however, obviously still think he can play, so it’s reasonable to look at some of his recent work.
I am going to set aside games where Johnson didn’t play much. He got on the field against San Francisco last year, without even touching the ball. And at New York, he played only sparingly, with just 2 touches before Chase Edmonds came into the game and went crazy (Johnson was trying to play on a damaged ankle).
In fact, I am discarding 10 games. If we look only at games where Johnson was on the field for at least two thirds of the offensive plays, he has played in 20 games since his All-Pro season. He’s averaged 60 rushing and 35 receiving yards in those games, with 13 TDs.
If we look at just the last 16 of those (an NFL season’s worth of action), he’s run for 1,004 yards, with an additional 589 receiving yards on 63 catches. During this time, he’s been a lot better as a receiver (9.4 yards per catch) rather than a runner (3.9 per carry).
The cast around Johnson, of course, must be considered. Most of those games were played in 2018, when the Cardinals had no offensive line and a rookie quarterback. In Texas, he’ll have a much better cast around him, with defenses worried about Deshaun Watson. Carlos Hyde isn’t as good as Johnson (I think) and managed to run for over 1,000 yards last year.
On the downside, I doubt the Texans will use Johnson as cleverly in the passing game as he was used in Arizona.
It’s early; I haven’t looked at it fully. I haven’t stacked a board yet. But I don’t think Johnson will be one of my top 10 running backs. But he’ll definitely be in my top 15.
| DAVID JOHNSON: LAST 20 STARTER-TYPE GAMES | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opp | Score | Att | Run | No | Rec | TD |
| Was. | L 6-24 | 9 | 37 | 5 | 30 | 1 |
| at LAR | L 0-34 | 13 | 48 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Chi. | L 14-16 | 12 | 31 | 4 | 30 | 1 |
| Sea. | L 17-20 | 22 | 71 | 3 | 41 | 1 |
| at S.F. | W 28-18 | 18 | 55 | 2 | 16 | 2 |
| at Min. | L 17-27 | 18 | 54 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| Den. | L 10-45 | 14 | 39 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| S.F. | W 18-15 | 16 | 59 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| at K.C. | L 14-26 | 21 | 98 | 7 | 85 | 2 |
| Oak. | L 21-23 | 25 | 137 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| at LAC | L 10-45 | 17 | 63 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| at G.B. | W 20-17 | 20 | 69 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Det. | L 3-17 | 15 | 49 | 8 | 12 | 0 |
| LAR | L 9-31 | 10 | 35 | 1 | 32 | 1 |
| at Sea. | L 24-27 | 17 | 62 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Det. | T 27-27 | 18 | 82 | 6 | 55 | 1 |
| Car. | L 20-38 | 11 | 37 | 6 | 28 | 1 |
| Sea. | L 10-27 | 11 | 40 | 8 | 99 | 0 |
| at Cin. | W 26-23 | 17 | 91 | 3 | 65 | 0 |
| Atl. | W 34-33 | 12 | 34 | 6 | 68 | 2 |
—Ian Allan