Joe Burrow had a record-setting season for Louisiana State, winning the Heisman and the National Championship. He's widely expected to be the top pick in the NFL Draft, with a report yesterday that the Dolphins may be hoping to trade up. But a Plan B of Tua Tagovailoa looks pretty good too.
A year ago, there was no thought that Burrow would go No. 1. Teams were viewed as "Tanking for Tua: at the time. Burrow was a year removed from transferring from Ohio State (stuck behind Dwayne Haskins), and had a nondescript junior season: 2,894 yards, 58 percent completions, 16 touchdowns. Then the offense took off under passing game coordinator Joe Brady, and here we are.
Tagovailoa, meanwhile, suffered a significant hip injury, ending his college career on a gloomy note. He had other injuries (primarily ankle) at Alabama, a red flag for his pro prospects. Yesterday Tagovailoa said he was 100 percent healthy, but in today's pandemic, NFL teams won't be able to get the medical information they'd like. If they weren't already convinced that Burrow will be the better pro, the lack of up-to-the-minute physical analysis of Tagovailoa might help make that decision for them.
But Tagovailoa was a great college quarterback all along -- and great last year prior to getting hurt. Among first-round picks the last 20 years, his passer rating (using the NFL formula) was the best. Burrow was a close 2nd. (I'm also including Justin Herbert, another certain first-rounder.)
| 1ST-ROUND QBS, 2000-PRESENT (FINAL YEAR OF COLLEGE) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | Pct | Yds | YPA | TD | INT | Rate |
| 2020 | ? | Tua Tagovailoa | 71.4 | 2840 | 11.27 | 33 | 3 | 147.3 |
| 2020 | ? | Joe Burrow | 76.3 | 5671 | 10.76 | 60 | 6 | 143.7 |
| 2018 | 1 | Baker Mayfield | 70.5 | 4627 | 11.45 | 43 | 6 | 137.9 |
| 2019 | 1 | Kyler Murray | 69.0 | 4361 | 11.57 | 42 | 7 | 137.2 |
| 2012 | 2 | Robert Griffin III | 71.7 | 4293 | 10.57 | 37 | 6 | 130.1 |
| 2015 | 2 | Marcus Mariota | 68.3 | 4454 | 10.01 | 42 | 4 | 128.4 |
| 2005 | 1 | Alex Smith | 67.5 | 2952 | 9.31 | 32 | 4 | 125.5 |
| 2011 | 1 | Cam Newton | 66.1 | 2854 | 10.19 | 30 | 7 | 124.9 |
| 2019 | 15 | Dwayne Haskins | 70.0 | 4831 | 9.06 | 50 | 8 | 123.2 |
| 2014 | 32 | Teddy Bridgewater | 71.0 | 3970 | 9.30 | 31 | 4 | 120.3 |
| 2004 | 4 | Philip Rivers | 72.0 | 4491 | 9.30 | 34 | 7 | 118.3 |
| 2012 | 1 | Andrew Luck | 71.3 | 3517 | 8.71 | 37 | 10 | 118.0 |
| 2002 | 1 | David Carr | 64.7 | 4299 | 9.03 | 42 | 7 | 116.9 |
| 2014 | 22 | Johnny Manziel | 69.9 | 4114 | 9.59 | 37 | 13 | 116.4 |
| 2005 | 25 | Jason Campbell | 69.6 | 2700 | 10.00 | 20 | 7 | 115.7 |
| 2000 | 18 | Chad Pennington | 67.4 | 4006 | 9.25 | 38 | 12 | 114.5 |
| 2007 | 1 | JaMarcus Russell | 67.8 | 3129 | 9.15 | 28 | 8 | 114.3 |
| 2004 | 11 | Ben Roethlisberger | 69.1 | 4486 | 9.06 | 37 | 10 | 113.9 |
| 2009 | 5 | Mark Sanchez | 65.8 | 3207 | 8.76 | 34 | 10 | 113.0 |
| 2010 | 25 | Tim Tebow | 67.8 | 2895 | 9.22 | 21 | 5 | 112.7 |
| 2020 | ? | Justin Herbert | 66.8 | 3471 | 8.11 | 32 | 6 | 110.6 |
| 2016 | 26 | Paxton Lynch | 66.8 | 3776 | 8.52 | 28 | 4 | 110.6 |
| 2017 | 2 | Mitchell Trubisky | 68.0 | 3748 | 8.38 | 30 | 6 | 110.5 |
| 2016 | 1 | Jared Goff | 64.5 | 4719 | 8.92 | 43 | 13 | 109.8 |
| 2014 | 3 | Blake Bortles | 67.8 | 3581 | 9.37 | 25 | 9 | 109.6 |
| 2012 | 22 | Brandon Weeden | 72.3 | 4727 | 8.38 | 37 | 13 | 109.6 |
| 2006 | 3 | Vince Young | 65.2 | 3036 | 9.34 | 26 | 10 | 109.2 |
| 2017 | 10 | Patrick Mahomes | 65.7 | 5052 | 8.55 | 41 | 10 | 108.5 |
| 2006 | 10 | Matt Leinart | 65.7 | 3815 | 8.85 | 28 | 8 | 107.6 |
| 2016 | 2 | Carson Wentz | 62.5 | 1651 | 7.94 | 17 | 4 | 106.5 |
| 2003 | 7 | Byron Leftwich | 67.4 | 4268 | 8.69 | 30 | 10 | 106.4 |
| 2005 | 24 | Aaron Rodgers | 66.1 | 2566 | 8.12 | 24 | 8 | 105.8 |
| 2007 | 22 | Brady Quinn | 61.9 | 3426 | 7.34 | 37 | 7 | 104.4 |
| 2013 | 16 | EJ Manuel | 68.0 | 3397 | 8.78 | 23 | 10 | 104.3 |
| 2017 | 12 | Deshaun Watson | 67.0 | 4593 | 7.93 | 41 | 17 | 102.3 |
| 2003 | 1 | Carson Palmer | 63.2 | 3942 | 8.06 | 33 | 10 | 102.3 |
| 2009 | 1 | Matthew Stafford | 61.4 | 3459 | 9.03 | 25 | 10 | 101.7 |
| 2004 | 1 | Eli Manning | 62.4 | 3600 | 8.16 | 29 | 10 | 100.5 |
| 2008 | 18 | Joe Flacco | 63.5 | 4263 | 8.18 | 23 | 5 | 99.8 |
| 2018 | 10 | Josh Rosen | 62.6 | 3756 | 8.31 | 26 | 10 | 98.8 |
| 2002 | 3 | Joey Harrington | 57.8 | 2415 | 7.50 | 23 | 5 | 98.8 |
| 2018 | 32 | Lamar Jackson | 59.1 | 3660 | 8.51 | 27 | 10 | 98.0 |
| 2018 | 3 | Sam Darnold | 63.1 | 4143 | 8.63 | 26 | 13 | 97.4 |
| 2004 | 22 | J.P. Losman | 59.5 | 3077 | 7.29 | 33 | 14 | 94.3 |
| 2015 | 1 | Jameis Winston | 65.3 | 3907 | 8.37 | 25 | 18 | 93.2 |
| 2011 | 12 | Christian Ponder | 61.5 | 2044 | 6.84 | 20 | 8 | 93.0 |
| 2009 | 17 | Josh Freeman | 58.6 | 2945 | 7.71 | 20 | 8 | 91.8 |
| 2019 | 6 | Daniel Jones | 60.5 | 2674 | 6.82 | 22 | 9 | 90.0 |
| 2012 | 8 | Ryan Tannehill | 61.6 | 3744 | 7.05 | 29 | 15 | 89.2 |
| 2018 | 7 | Josh Allen | 56.3 | 1812 | 6.71 | 16 | 6 | 87.5 |
| 2003 | 19 | Kyle Boller | 53.4 | 2815 | 6.69 | 28 | 10 | 86.8 |
| 2011 | 10 | Blaine Gabbert | 63.4 | 3186 | 6.71 | 16 | 9 | 86.2 |
| 2006 | 11 | Jay Cutler | 59.1 | 3073 | 6.65 | 21 | 9 | 86.1 |
| 2008 | 3 | Matt Ryan | 59.3 | 4507 | 6.89 | 31 | 19 | 83.9 |
| 2011 | 8 | Jake Locker | 55.4 | 2265 | 6.82 | 17 | 9 | 82.5 |
| 2002 | 32 | Patrick Ramsey | 57.0 | 2935 | 6.54 | 22 | 13 | 81.1 |
| 2001 | 1 | Michael Vick | 54.0 | 1234 | 7.66 | 8 | 6 | 80.1 |
| 2003 | 22 | Rex Grossman | 57.1 | 3402 | 6.76 | 22 | 17 | 78.3 |
Passer rating isn't everything, though the number of guys at the bottom of the table that flamed out quickly is noteworthy. Boller, Gabbert, Locker, Ramsey or Grossman, anyone? Matt Ryan looks like the only top NFL passer in that area.
Every year there's an effort to present uncertainty over who the top quarterback in the draft is, dating back to a supposed debate over whether Peyton Manning or Ryan Leaf should be the No. 1 overall pick. Most likely it will be Burrow.
But Tagovailoa is a really nice prospect. Somebody is going to take him at 2 or 3 or 5 and get their franchise quarterback. Not a given, to me, that Burrow winds up being the best from this draft.
--Andy Richardson