Is Ezekiel Elliott still a best of the best running back? Or is he now just one of the very good backs? He wasn’t as explosive last year.
Look, for example, at his 20-yard runs. He had 14 and 11 such plays in his first two full seasons. He had only 4 of those runs last year. The change-of-pace back behind him, Tony Pollard, also had 4 of those runs, with a sliver of the playing time.
Setting aside his suspension-marred season, Elliott has averaged fewer rushing yards per game every year, and his yards-per-carry has decreased in each of those seasons, from 5.1 to 4.7 to 4.5.
Elliott has piled up over 7,000 combined yards over the last four years, but this is a position where the hits add up, and the explosiveness can get pounded out of a player. At the running back position, it’s hard to stay on the very top of the mountain.
Consider, for example, the other 44 running backs who’ve gone over 7,000 yards in a four-year stretch. Three of said players didn’t play at all and can be set aside. But only nine of the remaining 41 came back and finished either 1st or 2nd in PPR scoring the next season. One finished in 3rd, and one finished in 4th.
Only 21 of these 41 player – barely over half – ranked in the top 10 statistically in their next season.
7,000-YARD RUNNING BACKS (the next year) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Yr | Run | Rec | Total | TD | PPR | Rk |
1976 | O.J. Simpson, Buff. | 8 | 1,503 | 259 | 1,762 | 9 | 252.2 | 3 |
1977 | O.J. Simpson, Buff. | 9 | 557 | 138 | 695 | 0 | 85.5 | 54 |
1980 | Walter Payton, Chi. | 6 | 1,460 | 367 | 1,827 | 7 | 270.7 | 5 |
1981 | Walter Payton, Chi. | 7 | 1,222 | 379 | 1,601 | 8 | 249.1 | 15 |
1982 | Walter Payton, Chi. | 8 | 596 | 311 | 907 | 1 | 134.7 | 13 |
1984 | William Andrews, Atl. | 6 | 214 | 35 | 249 | 1 | 35.9 | 98 |
1986 | Walter Payton, Chi. | 12 | 1,333 | 382 | 1,715 | 11 | 274.5 | 6 |
1987 | Eric Dickerson, Rams-Ind. | 5 | 1,288 | 171 | 1,459 | 6 | 199.9 | 5 |
1987 | Marcus Allen, Oak. | 6 | 754 | 410 | 1,164 | 5 | 198.6 | 6 |
1987 | Walter Payton, Chi. | 13 | 533 | 217 | 750 | 5 | 138.0 | 26 |
1988 | Eric Dickerson, Ind. | 6 | 1,659 | 377 | 2,036 | 15 | 329.6 | 2 |
1990 | Eric Dickerson, Ind. | 8 | 677 | 92 | 769 | 4 | 118.9 | 35 |
1993 | Thurman Thomas, Buff. | 6 | 1,315 | 387 | 1,702 | 6 | 254.2 | 2 |
1994 | Thurman Thomas, Buff. | 7 | 1,093 | 349 | 1,442 | 9 | 248.2 | 8 |
1995 | Emmitt Smith, Dall. | 6 | 1,773 | 375 | 2,148 | 25 | 426.8 | 1 |
1995 | Thurman Thomas, Buff. | 8 | 1,005 | 220 | 1,225 | 8 | 196.5 | 20 |
1996 | Emmitt Smith, Dall. | 7 | 1,204 | 249 | 1,453 | 15 | 282.3 | 5 |
1997 | Barry Sanders, Det. | 9 | 2,053 | 305 | 2,358 | 14 | 352.8 | 1 |
1997 | Emmitt Smith, Dall. | 8 | 1,074 | 234 | 1,308 | 4 | 196.8 | 15 |
1998 | Barry Sanders, Det. | 10 | 1,491 | 289 | 1,780 | 4 | 239.0 | 11 |
1999 | Terrell Davis, Den. | 5 | 211 | 26 | 237 | 2 | 38.7 | 87 |
1999 | Barry Sanders, Det. | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- |
2000 | Marshall Faulk, St.L. | 7 | 1,359 | 830 | 2,189 | 26 | 459.9 | 1 |
2001 | Marshall Faulk, St.L. | 8 | 1,382 | 765 | 2,147 | 21 | 425.7 | 1 |
2002 | Marshall Faulk, St.L. | 9 | 953 | 537 | 1,490 | 10 | 289.0 | 10 |
2003 | Marshall Faulk, St.L. | 10 | 818 | 290 | 1,108 | 11 | 221.8 | 16 |
2004 | Ahman Green, G.B. | 7 | 1,163 | 275 | 1,438 | 8 | 236.8 | 11 |
2004 | Priest Holmes, K.C. | 8 | 892 | 187 | 1,079 | 15 | 216.9 | 18 |
2004 | Ricky Williams, Mia. | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- |
2005 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 5 | 1,462 | 370 | 1,832 | 20 | 368.6 | 2 |
2005 | Tiki Barber, NYG | 9 | 1,860 | 530 | 2,390 | 11 | 361.0 | 4 |
2005 | Priest Holmes, K.C. | 9 | 451 | 197 | 648 | 7 | 127.8 | 31 |
2005 | Ahman Green, G.B. | 8 | 255 | 147 | 402 | 0 | 59.2 | 65 |
2006 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 6 | 1,815 | 508 | 2,323 | 31 | 483.3 | 1 |
2006 | Tiki Barber, NYG | 10 | 1,662 | 465 | 2,127 | 5 | 300.7 | 6 |
2006 | Shaun Alexander, Sea. | 7 | 896 | 48 | 944 | 7 | 148.4 | 33 |
2006 | Clinton Portis, Was. | 5 | 523 | 170 | 693 | 7 | 128.3 | 37 |
2007 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 7 | 1,474 | 475 | 1,949 | 18 | 367.8 | 2 |
2007 | Tiki Barber, NYG | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- |
2008 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 8 | 1,110 | 426 | 1,536 | 12 | 277.6 | 6 |
2009 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 9 | 730 | 154 | 884 | 12 | 180.4 | 24 |
2012 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 5 | 1,243 | 232 | 1,475 | 6 | 219.5 | 12 |
2013 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 6 | 1,077 | 345 | 1,422 | 10 | 244.2 | 9 |
2013 | Ray Rice, Balt. | 6 | 660 | 321 | 981 | 4 | 182.1 | 22 |
2020 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 5 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
I’m not opposed to drafting Elliott. He’s only 24 (will be 25 on opening day). He’s never been hurt; I love that. But he’s way more likely to finish 6th or 7th statistically among running backs, rather than up in the top 2.
—Ian Allan