Whether we admit it or not, we all have some players on our Do Not Draft list. Either they're on a formal list, or they're ranked so unfavorably that there's zero chance of them making it onto our team. James Conner, who burned me last year in a league or two, is one of those guys for me.
He should open as Pittsburgh's lead, featured running back, and Mike Tomlin concedes that's an approach he believes in. "James is a featured guy and proven runner when healthy," said Tomlin, in a story at this link. “I’m a featured-runner type guy by mentality. I think that when you have a featured runner, it gives him the opportunity to drop a stake in the ground and allows others to rally around him."
It all sounds good, if you're comfortable that Conner will stay healthy. But that wasn't the case a year ago.
Conner started 10 games last year, but in three of them he had fewer than 10 carries -- injuries or whatnot factored into him leaving early or having a reduced role. In several others he was trying to play hurt, and didn't put up big numbers.
Last year, 59 different running backs either started or had significant roles -- 3rd-down backs, or in a committee -- for at least half the season. Conner, on a per-game basis, showed up 19th among those backs. That doesn't sound terrible, except he was drafted as more of a top-1o type of guy. And when you consider he missed six games and had a limited role in several others, it's a pretty disappointing result. A mediocre starter even when he was available.
| RUNNING BACKS PER GAME, 2019 (8-GAME MINIMUM) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | St | Run | Rec | Total | TD | FPG |
| Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 16 | 86.7 | 62.8 | 149.5 | 1.21 | 29.5 |
| Dalvin Cook, Min. | 14 | 81.1 | 37.1 | 118.1 | .93 | 21.2 |
| Derrick Henry, Ten. | 15 | 102.7 | 13.7 | 116.4 | 1.20 | 20.0 |
| Aaron Jones, G.B. | 16 | 67.8 | 29.6 | 97.4 | 1.19 | 19.9 |
| Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 16 | 84.8 | 26.3 | 111.1 | .88 | 19.7 |
| Austin Ekeler, LAC | 16 | 34.8 | 62.1 | 96.9 | .69 | 19.6 |
| Saquon Barkley, NYG | 13 | 77.2 | 33.7 | 110.8 | .62 | 18.8 |
| Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 14 | 56.9 | 38.1 | 95.0 | .43 | 17.9 |
| Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 15 | 76.8 | 34.8 | 111.6 | .20 | 17.4 |
| Mark Ingram, Balt. | 15 | 67.9 | 16.5 | 84.3 | 1.04 | 16.4 |
| Nick Chubb, Cle. | 16 | 93.4 | 17.4 | 110.8 | .50 | 16.3 |
| Chris Carson, Sea. | 15 | 82.0 | 17.7 | 99.7 | .60 | 16.0 |
| Raheem Mostert, S.F. | 9 | 66.6 | 19.2 | 85.8 | 1.00 | 15.9 |
| Melvin Gordon, LAC | 12 | 51.0 | 24.7 | 75.7 | .75 | 15.6 |
| Kenyan Drake, Mia.-Ari. | 14 | 58.4 | 24.6 | 83.0 | .60 | 15.4 |
| David Johnson, Ariz. | 8 | 37.8 | 40.4 | 78.1 | .63 | 15.4 |
| Todd Gurley, LAR | 15 | 57.1 | 13.8 | 70.9 | .96 | 14.9 |
| Josh Jacobs, Oak. | 13 | 88.5 | 12.8 | 101.2 | .54 | 14.9 |
| James Conner, Pitt. | 10 | 46.4 | 25.1 | 71.5 | .70 | 14.8 |
| LeVeon Bell, NYJ | 15 | 52.6 | 30.7 | 83.3 | .29 | 14.5 |
| Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 14 | 46.9 | 29.3 | 76.1 | .43 | 14.4 |
| Devin Singletary, Buff. | 10 | 69.2 | 19.4 | 88.6 | .40 | 14.2 |
| Joe Mixon, Cin. | 16 | 71.1 | 17.9 | 89.0 | .50 | 14.1 |
| Miles Sanders, Phil. | 16 | 51.1 | 31.8 | 82.9 | .40 | 13.8 |
| James White (3rd), N.E. | 15 | 17.5 | 43.0 | 60.5 | .42 | 13.4 |
| Damien Williams, K.C. | 11 | 45.3 | 19.4 | 64.6 | .64 | 13.0 |
| Marlon Mack, Ind. | 14 | 77.9 | 5.9 | 83.8 | .60 | 13.0 |
| Kareem Hunt, Cle. | 8 | 22.4 | 35.6 | 58.0 | .38 | 12.7 |
| Jordan Howard, Phil. | 9 | 58.3 | 7.7 | 66.0 | .78 | 12.4 |
| Phillip Lindsay, Den. | 16 | 63.2 | 12.3 | 75.4 | .44 | 12.4 |
| David Montgomery, Chi. | 16 | 55.6 | 11.6 | 67.1 | .44 | 10.9 |
| Kerryon Johnson, Det. | 8 | 50.4 | 15.9 | 66.3 | .50 | 10.9 |
| Ronald Jones, T.B. | 16 | 45.3 | 19.3 | 64.6 | .38 | 10.6 |
| Jamaal Williams, G.B. | 14 | 32.9 | 18.1 | 50.9 | .43 | 10.5 |
| Matt Breida, S.F. | 9 | 60.2 | 12.2 | 72.4 | .22 | 10.4 |
| Tarik Cohen (3rd), Chi. | 16 | 13.3 | 28.5 | 41.8 | .19 | 10.2 |
| Adrian Peterson, Was. | 15 | 59.9 | 9.5 | 69.3 | .33 | 10.1 |
| Carlos Hyde, Hou. | 16 | 66.9 | 2.6 | 69.5 | .38 | 9.8 |
| Duke Johnson (3rd), Hou. | 16 | 25.6 | 25.6 | 51.3 | .31 | 9.8 |
| Tevin Coleman, S.F. | 14 | 38.9 | 12.9 | 51.7 | .50 | 9.7 |
| Sony Michel, N.E. | 16 | 57.0 | 5.9 | 62.9 | .44 | 9.7 |
| LeSean McCoy, K.C. | 13 | 35.8 | 13.9 | 49.7 | .38 | 9.4 |
| Royce Freeman, Den. | 16 | 31.0 | 16.0 | 47.0 | .25 | 8.9 |
| Chris Thompson (3rd), Was. | 11 | 12.5 | 34.4 | 46.9 | .00 | 8.5 |
| Rex Burkhead, N.E. | 13 | 23.2 | 21.5 | 44.7 | .23 | 7.9 |
| Rashaad Penny, Sea. | 10 | 37.0 | 8.3 | 45.3 | .40 | 7.7 |
| Jaylen Samuels (3rd), Pitt. | 14 | 12.5 | 21.8 | 34.3 | .14 | 7.6 |
| Nyheim Hines (3rd), Ind. | 16 | 12.4 | 20.0 | 32.4 | .25 | 7.5 |
| Peyton Barber, T.B. | 16 | 29.4 | 7.2 | 36.6 | .46 | 7.4 |
| Latavius Murray, N.O. | 14 | 29.7 | 10.6 | 40.4 | .14 | 6.3 |
| Tony Pollard, Dall. | 15 | 30.3 | 7.1 | 37.5 | .22 | 6.1 |
| Alexander Mattison, Min. | 13 | 35.5 | 6.3 | 41.8 | .08 | 5.4 |
| Gus Edwards, Balt. | 15 | 38.7 | 2.9 | 41.6 | .13 | 5.4 |
| Jalen Richard (3rd), Oak. | 16 | 9.1 | 20.2 | 29.3 | .00 | 5.2 |
| Dare Ogunbowale (3rd), T.B. | 16 | 1.1 | 17.9 | 18.9 | .13 | 4.8 |
| Giovani Bernard (3rd), Cin. | 16 | 10.6 | 14.6 | 25.3 | .00 | 4.4 |
| Dion Lewis (3rd), Ten. | 15 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 19.1 | .07 | 3.9 |
We held the Experts Draft and Auction for the magazine this week, and Conner was a guy where there was a good range of opinions. He was the 27th running back selected, in the 5th round, in the draft ($18 in the auction, 20th at the position), and mentioned by a couple of participants as a steal. And I agree: good chance he outpeforms that spot, based on Tomlin's words.
With the caveat: if healthy.
--Andy Richardson