Factoid

June 23, 2020

Third-round running backs

Odds of rookie impact for Gibson, Vaughn

In the comments of yesterday's draft thread, there was some discussion of rookie running backs, the ones outside the biggest names. So not Clyde Edwards-Helaire or Jonathan Taylor, who will be selected in the first few rounds of every draft, but the ones available a little later. What kind of rookie impact might the guys taken a little later have?

There were five running backs taken in the third round of April's draft. Two of those guys (Lynn Bowden, Darrynton Evans) are definitely no better than No. 2s behind franchise guys, Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry. A third, Zack Moss, will likely be behind Devin Singletary (a third-round pick himself).

But Antonio Gibson (pictured) in Washington and KeShawn Vaughn in Tampa Bay at least have some potential to carve out committee or even larger roles. It's a new coaching staff in Washington that doesn't need to be committed to oft-injured Derrius Guice, and a new offense in Tampa Bay that won't necessarily hand anything to Ronald Jones. So maybe.

There have been some third-rounders who have made an immediate impact, although not many. Of the 56 drafted in the that round since 2000, four (7 percent) have ranked in the top 10 as rookies. Not great odds, but those who gambled and won probably did pretty well in their leagues, led by Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, Steve Slaton or David Johnson. Table shows rookie numbers and PPR rank that season.

THIRD-ROUND RUNNING BACKS, 2000-PRESENT
Year	Pk	Player	Run	Rec	Tot	TD	Rk
2017	67	Alvin Kamara, N.O.	728	826	1554	14	3
2017	86	Kareem Hunt, K.C.	1327	455	1782	11	4
2008	89	Steve Slaton, Hou.	1282	377	1659	10	7
2015	86	David Johnson, Ariz.	581	457	1038	13	7
2008	64	Kevin Smith, Det.	976	286	1262	8	17
2019	73	David Montgomery, Chi.	889	185	1074	7	24
2015	77	Duke Johnson, Clev.	379	534	913	2	24
2000	63	Travis Prentice, Clev.	512	191	703	8	29
2011	71	DeMarco Murray, Dall.	897	183	1080	2	30
2014	75	Tre Mason, St.L.	765	148	913	5	30
2019	74	Devin Singletary, Buff.	775	194	969	4	33
2001	80	Kevan Barlow, S.F.	512	247	759	5	33
2015	95	Matt Jones, Wash.	490	304	794	4	41
2014	94	Terrance West, Clev.	673	64	737	5	41
2005	65	Frank Gore, S.F.	608	131	739	3	42
2001	85	Travis Minor, Mia.	281	263	544	4	42
2000	76	J.R. Redmond, N.E.	406	126	532	3	42
2002	84	Lamar Gordon, St.L.	228	278	506	3	43
2018	71	Royce Freeman, Den.	521	72	593	5	46
2006	79	Jerious Norwood, Atl.	633	102	735	2	47
2014	96	Jerick McKinnon, Minn.	538	135	673	0	48
2008	73	Jamaal Charles, K.C.	357	272	629	1	54
2001	65	James Jackson, Clev.	554	56	610	2	55
2013	96	Knile Davis, K.C.	242	75	317	5	56
2012	84	Bernard Pierce, Balt.	532	47	579	1	59
2019	102	Alexander Mattison, Minn.	462	82	544	1	61
2007	71	Lorenzo Booker, Mia.	125	0	125	0	65
2009	65	Shonn Greene, NYJ	540	0	540	2	66
2012	67	Ronnie Hillman, Den.	330	62	392	1	67
2016	90	C.J. Prosise, Sea.	172	208	380	1	68
2011	73	Stevan Ridley, N.E.	441	13	454	1	73
2014	69	Charles Sims, T.B.	185	190	375	1	73
2017	89	D'Onta Foreman, Hou.	327	83	410	2	74
2016	73	Kenyan Drake, Mia.	179	46	225	2	74
2005	77	Ryan Moats, Phil.	278	7	285	3	75
2005	73	Vernand Morency, Hou.	184	87	271	2	76
2009	74	Glen Coffee, S.F.	226	76	302	1	78
2015	73	Tevin Coleman, Atl.	392	14	406	1	79
2008	69	Jacob Hester, S.D.	95	91	186	2	80
2002	91	Brian Westbrook, Phil.	193	86	279	0	82
2003	93	Chris Brown, Tenn.	221	61	282	0	88
2007	93	Garrett Wolfe, Chi.	85	117	202	0	92
2019	70	Darrell Henderson, LAR	147	37	184	0	98
2003	96	Justin Fargas, Oak.	203	2	205	0	103
2017	105	James Conner, Pitt.	144	0	144	0	113
2003	77	Musa Smith, Balt.	31	0	31	2	118
2007	90	Tony Hunt, Phil.	16	0	16	1	132
2006	74	Brian Calhoun, Det.	19	20	39	0	133
2019	87	Damien Harris, N.E.	12	0	12	0	142
2001	82	Heath Evans, Sea.	11	0	11	0	142
2011	96	Alex Green, G.B.	11	6	17	0	150
2014	97	Dri Archer, Pitt.	40	23	63	0	155
2003	85	B.J. Askew, NYJ	9	0	9	0	157
2005	101	Maurice Clarett, Den.	0	0	0	0	--
2000	81	Reuben Droughns, Det.	0	0	0	0	--
2000	88	Doug Chapman, Minn.	0	0	0	0	--
2020	66	Antonio Gibson, Wash.	?	?	?	?	?
2020	93	Darrynton Evans, Tenn.	?	?	?	?	?
2020	76	KeShawn Vaughn, T.B.	?	?	?	?	?
2020	80	Lynn Bowden, L.V.	?	?	?	?	?
2020	86	Zack Moss, Buff.	?	?	?	?	?

Three other third-rounders (Kevin Smith, Duke Johnson and David Montgomery last year) at least ranked in the top 25 among running backs. Singletary last year made it into the top 35. So if you can select Moss or Gibson in a later round, just maybe you'll wind up with a fantasy starter at a very cheap price.

Gibson was a wide receiver in college, and Ron Rivera compared him to Christian McCaffrey for his receiving ability. Neither Guice nor Adrian Peterson is much of a pass-catcher, so that's a role Gibson could take over right away. He wasn't heavily used at Memphis (77 offensive touches last year) but scored 14 touchdowns. With Moss, who ran for 36 touchdowns the last three seasons at Utah, maybe he can take on goal-line duties. Those are the most intriguing of this group.

--Andy Richardson

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