So Raheem Mostert is requesting to be traded from the 49ers. He's looking for a new contract, currently slated to make about $3 million in 2020. He signed this deal just a year ago, but his agent argues that was primarily for his special teams contributions -- and now he's the clear No. 1 running back on the team.
"Disappointing that it would come to this for a guy who led all NFL running backs in yards per carry and helped lead them to the Super Bowl," says agent Brett Tessler. While Mostert certainly had a great season (and postseason) last year, I don't think Tessler should really lean on Mostert's yards per carry in Kyle Shanahan's offense. (It can also be pointed out that Tevin Coleman's divisional round game against Minnesota -- 105 yards and 2 TDs -- was as important in the team's Super Bowl run as Mostert's huge game against Green Bay a week later.)
While Mostert's 5.6 yards per carry last season was great, so was Matt Breida's (5.1) in the same offense. In Shanahan's last five years running an offense -- three in San Francisco, and two in Atlanta -- a running back has averaged at least 4.4 yards per attempt six times (minimum of 100 carries). That includes Breida doing it three times, Coleman once, and Devonta Freeman once. Collectively, Shanahan backs account for 6 percent of the NFL's 4.4-yards per carry seasons over that time frame.
| RUNNING BACKS OVER 4.4 YARDS PER CARRY, 2015-2019 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD |
| 2017 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 120 | 728 | 6.1 | 8 |
| 2016 | Mike Gillislee, Buff. | 101 | 577 | 5.7 | 8 |
| 2015 | Thomas Rawls, Sea. | 147 | 830 | 5.7 | 4 |
| 2019 | Raheem Mostert, S.F. | 137 | 772 | 5.6 | 8 |
| 2016 | Bilal Powell, NYJ | 131 | 722 | 5.5 | 3 |
| 2018 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 133 | 728 | 5.5 | 8 |
| 2018 | Kerryon Johnson, Det. | 118 | 641 | 5.4 | 3 |
| 2016 | LeSean McCoy, Buff. | 234 | 1267 | 5.4 | 13 |
| 2018 | Phillip Lindsay, Den. | 192 | 1037 | 5.4 | 9 |
| 2019 | Gus Edwards, Balt. | 133 | 711 | 5.4 | 2 |
| 2018 | Matt Breida, S.F. | 153 | 814 | 5.3 | 3 |
| 2018 | Gus Edwards, Balt. | 137 | 718 | 5.2 | 2 |
| 2018 | Austin Ekeler, LAC | 106 | 554 | 5.2 | 3 |
| 2016 | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 252 | 1313 | 5.2 | 6 |
| 2018 | Nick Chubb, Cle. | 192 | 996 | 5.2 | 8 |
| 2019 | Devin Singletary, Buff. | 151 | 775 | 5.1 | 2 |
| 2019 | Matt Breida, S.F. | 123 | 623 | 5.1 | 1 |
| 2016 | Mark Ingram, N.O. | 205 | 1043 | 5.1 | 6 |
| 2019 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 303 | 1540 | 5.1 | 16 |
| 2015 | Ryan Mathews, Phil. | 106 | 539 | 5.1 | 6 |
| 2016 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 322 | 1631 | 5.1 | 15 |
| 2018 | Melvin Gordon, LAC | 175 | 885 | 5.1 | 10 |
| 2019 | Mark Ingram, Balt. | 202 | 1018 | 5.0 | 10 |
| 2019 | Nick Chubb, Cle. | 298 | 1494 | 5.0 | 8 |
| 2018 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 261 | 1307 | 5.0 | 11 |
| 2018 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 219 | 1098 | 5.0 | 7 |
| 2017 | Dion Lewis, N.E. | 180 | 896 | 5.0 | 6 |
| 2015 | Charles Sims, T.B. | 107 | 529 | 4.9 | 0 |
| 2018 | Joe Mixon, Cin. | 237 | 1168 | 4.9 | 8 |
| 2018 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 215 | 1059 | 4.9 | 12 |
| 2015 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 113 | 556 | 4.9 | 3 |
| 2016 | Jay Ajayi, Mia. | 260 | 1272 | 4.9 | 8 |
| 2018 | Todd Gurley, LAR | 256 | 1251 | 4.9 | 17 |
| 2017 | Mark Ingram, N.O. | 230 | 1124 | 4.9 | 12 |
| 2017 | Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 272 | 1327 | 4.9 | 8 |
| 2015 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 288 | 1402 | 4.9 | 6 |
| 2016 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 261 | 1268 | 4.9 | 7 |
| 2017 | Kenyan Drake, Mia. | 133 | 644 | 4.8 | 3 |
| 2019 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 287 | 1387 | 4.8 | 15 |
| 2015 | Todd Gurley, St.L. | 229 | 1106 | 4.8 | 10 |
| 2016 | Isaiah Crowell, Cle. | 198 | 952 | 4.8 | 7 |
| 2019 | Kenyan Drake, 2TM | 170 | 817 | 4.8 | 8 |
| 2016 | Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 227 | 1079 | 4.8 | 11 |
| 2018 | Tevin Coleman, Atl. | 167 | 800 | 4.8 | 4 |
| 2018 | Isaiah Crowell, NYJ | 143 | 685 | 4.8 | 6 |
| 2017 | Alfred Morris, Dall. | 115 | 547 | 4.8 | 1 |
| 2019 | Josh Jacobs, Oak. | 242 | 1150 | 4.8 | 7 |
| 2015 | Giovani Bernard, Cin. | 154 | 730 | 4.7 | 2 |
| 2015 | C.J. Anderson, Den. | 152 | 720 | 4.7 | 5 |
| 2018 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 304 | 1434 | 4.7 | 6 |
| 2017 | Todd Gurley, LAR | 279 | 1305 | 4.7 | 13 |
| 2018 | Mark Ingram, N.O. | 138 | 645 | 4.7 | 6 |
| 2018 | Chris Carson, Sea. | 247 | 1151 | 4.7 | 9 |
| 2018 | Marlon Mack, Ind. | 195 | 908 | 4.7 | 9 |
| 2019 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 171 | 797 | 4.7 | 5 |
| 2015 | David Johnson, Ariz. | 125 | 581 | 4.7 | 8 |
| 2018 | Lamar Miller, Hou. | 210 | 973 | 4.6 | 5 |
| 2015 | Mark Ingram, N.O. | 166 | 769 | 4.6 | 6 |
| 2018 | Frank Gore, Mia. | 156 | 722 | 4.6 | 0 |
| 2019 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 217 | 1003 | 4.6 | 6 |
| 2018 | Dalvin Cook, Min. | 133 | 615 | 4.6 | 2 |
| 2019 | Alexander Mattison, Min. | 100 | 462 | 4.6 | 1 |
| 2019 | LeSean McCoy, K.C. | 101 | 465 | 4.6 | 4 |
| 2019 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 236 | 1084 | 4.6 | 16 |
| 2017 | Alex Collins, Balt. | 212 | 973 | 4.6 | 6 |
| 2018 | Mike Davis, Sea. | 112 | 514 | 4.6 | 4 |
| 2019 | Miles Sanders, Phil. | 179 | 818 | 4.6 | 3 |
| 2015 | Darren McFadden, Dall. | 239 | 1089 | 4.6 | 3 |
| 2016 | Carlos Hyde, S.F. | 217 | 988 | 4.6 | 6 |
| 2018 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 194 | 883 | 4.6 | 14 |
| 2018 | Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 181 | 824 | 4.6 | 7 |
| 2015 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 327 | 1485 | 4.5 | 11 |
| 2019 | Dalvin Cook, Min. | 250 | 1135 | 4.5 | 13 |
| 2015 | DeAngelo Williams, Pitt. | 200 | 907 | 4.5 | 11 |
| 2018 | James Conner, Pitt. | 215 | 973 | 4.5 | 12 |
| 2019 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 301 | 1357 | 4.5 | 12 |
| 2019 | Phillip Lindsay, Den. | 224 | 1011 | 4.5 | 7 |
| 2015 | Lamar Miller, Mia. | 194 | 872 | 4.5 | 8 |
| 2019 | Damien Williams, K.C. | 111 | 498 | 4.5 | 5 |
| 2018 | Kenyan Drake, Mia. | 120 | 535 | 4.5 | 4 |
| 2018 | Sony Michel, N.E. | 209 | 931 | 4.5 | 6 |
| 2016 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 110 | 490 | 4.5 | 5 |
| 2015 | Rashad Jennings, NYG | 195 | 863 | 4.4 | 3 |
| 2017 | LeGarrette Blount, Phil. | 173 | 766 | 4.4 | 2 |
| 2019 | Chris Carson, Sea. | 278 | 1230 | 4.4 | 7 |
| 2019 | Marlon Mack, Ind. | 247 | 1091 | 4.4 | 8 |
| 2015 | LeSean McCoy, Buff. | 203 | 895 | 4.4 | 3 |
| 2017 | Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 196 | 865 | 4.4 | 7 |
| 2019 | Jordan Howard, Phil. | 119 | 525 | 4.4 | 6 |
| 2016 | Tevin Coleman, Atl. | 118 | 520 | 4.4 | 8 |
| 2017 | Matt Breida, S.F. | 105 | 465 | 4.4 | 2 |
| 2016 | DeMarco Murray, Ten. | 293 | 1287 | 4.4 | 9 |
| 2017 | Orleans Darkwa, NYG | 171 | 751 | 4.4 | 5 |
| 2019 | Carlos Hyde, Hou. | 245 | 1070 | 4.4 | 6 |
| 2019 | Latavius Murray, N.O. | 146 | 637 | 4.4 | 5 |
| 2017 | Giovani Bernard, Cin. | 105 | 458 | 4.4 | 2 |
| 2019 | Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 265 | 1152 | 4.4 | 3 |
So Mostert isn't the first back to have a nice year in this offense, and he won't be the last. Any thought that he's a special talent who can join a new team and start cranking out good seasons seems wildly optimistic, given his journeyman career before latching on in San Francisco.
Mostert's a hard runner in a good offense and (I think) is in line for a very nice season if this gets worked out. Most likely he's not going to be traded (I can't think of a team currently looking for a starting running back and also willing to pay that player the $5 million-ish salary he's reportedly seeking); he and San Francisco can perhaps reach some compromise that pays him a little more than Coleman is slated to make, which is $4.5 million.
If this dust-up causes Mostert to slide in drafts, I'll happily select him at a nice discount. Where's he gonna go and start? The Rams? Tampa Bay? Those teams have youngsters they like.
But the very slim chance of a holdout or departure will have me select Coleman a little bit earlier than before. (Though probably not as early as somebody else will, who's more alarmist about this story.) In this offense, a lot of different starting running backs could put up excellent numbers. It will likely be Mostert, but Coleman might be able to do it too. Using the magazine rankings, I'd be bumping Coleman up to around 41st, while Mostert falls about 5-6 spots (from 22nd).
--Andy Richardson