Gardner Minshew landed briefly on the COVID list, but he’s back now, and I have some interest in him as a late-round pick. He was surprisingly decent as a rookie, and the Jaguars could have a passer-friendly offense.
Minshew exceeded expectations as a rookie. In the 12 games he started, he averaged 237 passing yards, with 18 TDs versus only 4 interceptions. And he was sneaky good as a runner, chipping in an additional 28 yards per week. In typical fantasy leagues, he ranked 18th in per-game production when compared to the 32 quarterbacks who started at least half the time.
Now Jacksonville is bringing in Jay Gruden to serve as its offensive coordinator, and he tends to put together pass-oriented offenses. In his last seven full seasons, his teams have averaged 257 passing yards per game and 25.3 TD passes per season. Things started falling apart in Washington for him in 2018; in his previous six season (including his work in Cincinnati) his offenses averaged 266 passing yards per game and 27 TD passes per season.
The Jaguars seem to have some decent pass catchers, with DJ Chark leading the way.
I’m not saying Minshew is the secret pick who’ll win your league, but in a typical 12-team league, he seems to grade out as a serviceable second quarterback (and one who won’t necessarily be among the first 25 quarterbacks chosen).
He finished last season with a 91.2 passer rating. That was better than the three quarterbacks who were chosen in the first round (Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins).
In the last 10 years, 36 quarterbacks have attempted at least 200 passes as rookies. Only six of those players finished with high passer rating than Minshew.
| ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS: PASSER RATING | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pct | Yards | TD | Int | Rating |
| 2016 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 68% | 3,667 | 23 | 4 | 104.9 |
| 2017 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 62% | 1,699 | 19 | 8 | 103.0 |
| 2012 | Robert Griffin III, Wash. | 66% | 3,200 | 20 | 5 | 102.4 |
| 2012 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 64% | 3,118 | 26 | 10 | 100.0 |
| 2018 | Baker Mayfield, Clev. | 64% | 3,725 | 27 | 14 | 93.7 |
| 2015 | Marcus Mariota, Tenn. | 62% | 2,818 | 19 | 10 | 91.5 |
| 2019 | Gardner Minshew, Jac. | 61% | 3,271 | 21 | 6 | 91.2 |
| 2019 | • Daniel Jones, NYG | 62% | 3,027 | 24 | 12 | 87.7 |
| 2019 | • Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 64% | 3,722 | 20 | 12 | 87.4 |
| 2014 | Teddy Bridgewater, Minn. | 64% | 2,919 | 14 | 12 | 85.2 |
| 2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | 60% | 4,051 | 21 | 17 | 84.5 |
| 2015 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 58% | 4,042 | 22 | 15 | 84.2 |
| 2013 | Mike Glennon, T.B. | 59% | 2,608 | 19 | 9 | 83.9 |
| 2012 | Nick Foles, Phil. | 63% | 1,699 | 6 | 5 | 82.1 |
| 2011 | Andy Dalton, Cin. | 58% | 3,398 | 20 | 13 | 80.4 |
| 2016 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 62% | 3,782 | 16 | 14 | 79.3 |
| 2013 | EJ Manuel, Buff. | 59% | 1,972 | 11 | 9 | 77.7 |
| 2018 | Sam Darnold, NYJ | 58% | 2,865 | 17 | 15 | 77.6 |
| 2017 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 59% | 2,193 | 7 | 7 | 77.5 |
| 2014 | Derek Carr, Oak. | 58% | 3,270 | 21 | 12 | 76.6 |
| 2012 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 54% | 4,374 | 23 | 18 | 76.5 |
| 2010 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 60% | 3,512 | 18 | 15 | 76.5 |
| 2019 | • Dwayne Haskins, Wash. | 59% | 1,365 | 7 | 7 | 76.1 |
| 2012 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 58% | 3,294 | 12 | 13 | 76.1 |
| 2010 | Colt McCoy, Clev. | 61% | 1,576 | 6 | 9 | 74.5 |
| 2012 | Brandon Weeden, Clev. | 57% | 3,385 | 14 | 17 | 72.6 |
| 2011 | Christian Ponder, Minn. | 54% | 1,853 | 13 | 13 | 70.1 |
| 2014 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 59% | 2,908 | 11 | 17 | 69.5 |
| 2017 | C.J. Beathard, S.F. | 55% | 1,430 | 4 | 6 | 69.2 |
| 2018 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 53% | 2,074 | 10 | 12 | 67.9 |
| 2018 | Josh Rosen, Ariz. | 55% | 2,278 | 11 | 14 | 66.7 |
| 2013 | Geno Smith, NYJ | 56% | 3,046 | 12 | 21 | 66.5 |
| 2011 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 51% | 2,214 | 12 | 11 | 65.4 |
| 2016 | Jared Goff | 55% | 1,089 | 5 | 7 | 63.6 |
| 2017 | DeShone Kizer, Clev. | 54% | 2,894 | 11 | 22 | 60.5 |
| 2010 | Jimmy Clausen, Car. | 53% | 1,558 | 3 | 9 | 58.4 |
—Ian Allan