The Dolphins had the league's worst running game a year ago, which tends to happen when your offensive line is cheap and terrible and you trade your only decent running back during the season. They brought in two new veterans this offseason, Jordan Howard and Matt Breida, and those are the guys who should get most (all?) of the snaps in 2020. How might things shake out?
ESPN's Cameron Wolfe anticipates Howard getting half the touches and Breida around a third. Howard, he guesses, will be the early-down back, and Breida in passing situations. And that makes sense.
The question to me is just how good Miami will be. If they're winning games, we should see more of Howard, running with a lead. If they're losing, as they did most of last season, they'll spend a lot more of their games in passing formations, with Breida on the field.
Miami spent a lot of money in the offseason. Their defense should be better, and their offensive line should be a little better (it could hardly be worse). And it will be surprising if New England isn't more vulnerable in the AFC East, having some thinking Miami could be surprisingly successful.
But I'm going with the idea that Miami will still have trouble running the ball, either because the line isn't very good, Howard isn't very good, and the defense will still be a lesser unit, so the team will be playing from behind a lot. Breida is the guy I'll be drafting in later rounds. More explosive runner than Howard, and way better in the passing game.
Over the past two seasons, Breida has been a really effective receiver. Among running backs with at least 50 targets, in fact, only Damien Williams caught a higher percentage of passes thrown his way. (So of guys actually playing in 2020, Breida's the best.) Howard didn't see 50 targets, but I'm including him on the below list anyway for comparison's sake.
| RUNNING BACK RECEIVING, 2018-2019 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Tgt | Pct |
| Damien Williams, K.C. | 53 | 373 | 7.0 | 4 | 61 | 86.9 |
| Matt Breida, S.F. | 46 | 381 | 8.3 | 3 | 53 | 86.8 |
| Jaylen Samuels, Pitt. | 73 | 504 | 6.9 | 4 | 86 | 84.9 |
| Dion Lewis, Ten. | 84 | 564 | 6.7 | 2 | 99 | 84.8 |
| LeVeon Bell, NYJ | 66 | 461 | 7.0 | 1 | 78 | 84.6 |
| Mark Ingram, Balt. | 47 | 417 | 8.9 | 6 | 56 | 83.9 |
| Jalen Richard, Oak. | 104 | 930 | 8.9 | 0 | 124 | 83.9 |
| Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 223 | 1872 | 8.4 | 10 | 266 | 83.8 |
| Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 64 | 433 | 6.8 | 4 | 77 | 83.1 |
| Dalvin Cook, Min. | 93 | 824 | 8.9 | 2 | 112 | 83.0 |
| Theo Riddick, Det. | 61 | 384 | 6.3 | 0 | 74 | 82.4 |
| Mike Davis, 2TM | 41 | 236 | 5.8 | 1 | 50 | 82.0 |
| James Conner, Pitt. | 89 | 748 | 8.4 | 4 | 109 | 81.7 |
| Royce Freeman, Den. | 57 | 328 | 5.8 | 1 | 70 | 81.4 |
| Austin Ekeler, LAC | 131 | 1397 | 10.7 | 11 | 161 | 81.4 |
| Latavius Murray, N.O. | 56 | 376 | 6.7 | 1 | 69 | 81.2 |
| Chris Carson, Sea. | 57 | 429 | 7.5 | 2 | 71 | 80.3 |
| Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 162 | 1242 | 7.7 | 5 | 202 | 80.2 |
| Kareem Hunt, Cle. | 63 | 663 | 10.5 | 8 | 79 | 79.7 |
| Miles Sanders, Phil. | 50 | 509 | 10.2 | 3 | 63 | 79.4 |
| Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 131 | 987 | 7.5 | 5 | 166 | 78.9 |
| Joe Mixon, Cin. | 78 | 583 | 7.5 | 4 | 100 | 78.0 |
| Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 98 | 707 | 7.2 | 1 | 126 | 77.8 |
| Kerryon Johnson, Det. | 42 | 340 | 8.1 | 2 | 54 | 77.8 |
| LeSean McCoy, K.C. | 62 | 419 | 6.8 | 1 | 80 | 77.5 |
| Nyheim Hines, Ind. | 107 | 745 | 7.0 | 2 | 139 | 77.0 |
| Tarik Cohen, Chi. | 150 | 1181 | 7.9 | 8 | 195 | 76.9 |
| Kyle Juszczyk, S.F. | 50 | 563 | 11.3 | 2 | 65 | 76.9 |
| Jamaal Williams, G.B. | 66 | 463 | 7.0 | 5 | 86 | 76.7 |
| Melvin Gordon, LAC | 92 | 786 | 8.5 | 5 | 121 | 76.0 |
| Jordan Howard, 2TM | 30 | 214 | 7.1 | 1 | 40 | 75.0 |
| Saquon Barkley, NYG | 143 | 1159 | 8.1 | 6 | 194 | 73.7 |
| Phillip Lindsay, Den. | 70 | 437 | 6.2 | 1 | 95 | 73.7 |
| Chris Thompson, Was. | 83 | 646 | 7.8 | 1 | 113 | 73.5 |
| Duke Johnson, Hou. | 91 | 839 | 9.2 | 6 | 124 | 73.4 |
| Devontae Booker, Den. | 44 | 332 | 7.5 | 0 | 60 | 73.3 |
| T.J. Yeldon, Buff. | 68 | 611 | 9.0 | 4 | 93 | 73.1 |
| Kenyan Drake, 2TM | 103 | 822 | 8.0 | 5 | 141 | 73.0 |
| James White, N.E. | 159 | 1396 | 8.8 | 12 | 218 | 72.9 |
| Aaron Jones, G.B. | 75 | 680 | 9.1 | 4 | 103 | 72.8 |
| Nick Chubb, Cle. | 56 | 427 | 7.6 | 2 | 78 | 71.8 |
| Tevin Coleman, S.F. | 53 | 456 | 8.6 | 6 | 74 | 71.6 |
| Giovani Bernard, Cin. | 65 | 452 | 7.0 | 0 | 91 | 71.4 |
| Rex Burkhead, N.E. | 41 | 410 | 10.0 | 1 | 58 | 70.7 |
| David Johnson, Ariz. | 86 | 816 | 9.5 | 7 | 123 | 69.9 |
| Todd Gurley, LAR | 90 | 787 | 8.7 | 6 | 130 | 69.2 |
| Peyton Barber, T.B. | 36 | 207 | 5.8 | 2 | 53 | 67.9 |
| Ty Montgomery, NYJ | 38 | 325 | 8.6 | 0 | 57 | 66.7 |
Breida being more effective than Howard isn't a surprise. But his strength in this area is noteworthy in case you were concerned about Patrick Laird, for example, taking chances away from him. Breida will be the guy when Miami is in passing situations or playing from behind, and I won't be surprised if he gets some change-up runs, as well. I like him as a later choice in drafts.
--Andy Richardson