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Ian Allan

Waiting on running backs

Can you find decent running back depth later in drafts?

Can you zig when others zag? Most notably, can you resist the urge to join the mad scramble for running backs? The most recent Fanex Draft can serve as a case study.

In this one, I selected running backs in the first and third rounds, which is an ordinary enough start. But after that, I stayed away from running backs until late in the 12th round (140 picks in). When I finally selected my third running back, I think every other team had at least four players at the position (with some having 5 and 6).

I did this largely because I consider wide receiver to be the more important position in this format. With it being PPR scoring, I think the correct course is usually to start four wide receivers every week. (You have to start three, and scoring systems tend to favor WR over RB for the flex spot.)

I went the outlier route in this draft, selecting a tight end with the 20th pick, so I felt a strong need to select six good wide receivers, giving me an opportunity to start four of them every week (there are injuries and byes, and maybe one or two of these guys doesn’t come through like I’m expecting).

When you look at the quarterbacks against the quality of the hit-or-miss running backs in the middle of the draft, I also felt it made sense to pick up a pair of capable quarterbacks in there, nailing down that spot. So it was the 12th round before I got back to the running back position.

While I didn’t get back to running backs until the 140th pick, however, I think I did better than simply punting the position. I might have a couple of guys who’ll hit.

The lesser running back discussion really starts at pick 11.05. I could have taken Alexander Mattison there (and he was a consideration). But I felt adding Cam Newton to give myself a solid one-two punch of quarterbacks was the correct move. In hindsight, had I known Jimmy Garoppolo would still be available in the 16th round, I would have taken Mattison.

12.08 Chase Edmonds. I don’t expect much from Edmonds week to week, but Kenyan Drake probably will miss some games at some point. When Edmonds fills in, he might be just as good.

13.05 Darrell Henderson. Cam Akers is expected to be the starting running back for the Rams, but Henderson potentially could win that job or be a time-share back. Could be a contributor, might be their third-down back, and some chance he’s really good.

14.08 Benny Snell. If James Conner misses any time, Snell should fill in and be a pretty similar back.

15.05 Damien Harris. I’m not sure how New England’s backfield will play out. Both Sony Michel and Lamar Miller are on the PUP list right now, making me believe Harris might be their guy. He might simply be better than Miller. He could be more rugged than Michel. Harris had a good preseason game in Nashville last year but hardly played in the regular season. If I’m walking into a draft today, I would select Harris before Michel and Miller (and Burkhead).

20.08 Jalen Richard. There were actually two other running backs sitting here that I considered. In PPR scoring, I like Jamaal Williams more than AJ Dillon in Green Bay. And I could have selected Malcolm Brown, putting me to position to hold the Rams tailback if Cam Akers isn’t the guy. But I went with Richard, who had a 68-catch season two years ago for the Raiders. Richard could be both a third-down back and the primary backup tailback for Las Vegas.

There were other backup running backs I considered. I would have liked to have selected Duke Johnson and Tony Pollard (protecting my early-round investments) but both were selected long before I was considering them. I believed I would select Carlos Hyde, but he got grabbed. And DeAndre Washington got picked up as well.

While the backup running back spots aren’t the strength of this team, I like that I’ve got five lines in the water. That is, if Kenyan Drake or James Conner or Cam Akers or Sony Michael or Josh Jacobs gets hurt, I will have something to work with. Injuries are common at the running back position, so I believe there will be some decent weeks in there with those backups. If not, maybe I can find something on the waiver wire.

Draft quirk: There were five teams in this league that tried to go really cheap at quarterback. In the back half of the 16th round, we reached a point where five teams had only one quarterback, while five others had at least three. At this point, three of the four teams picking after me to end Round 16 were ones with only one quarterback. So while my intention was to pick only two quarterbacks, I felt the correct course there was to join the QB hoarders by selecting Jimmy Garoppolo at 16.08.

I have participated in three drafts this year with the Fanex group. All are people who’ve worked some in the industry. Of my three teams, my auction league team was the best. In that one, I was able to turn my $200 payroll into $302 worth of players (using my auction values). In the two drafts, if I plug in those same player values, one team is “worth” $274, while this most-recent one is worth $260. Good teams – just not as good.

With the draft format, I’m not crazy about the role that chance has in the outcome. Your first two picks are your most important picks, and they’re determined in large part by which draft slot you’re assigned. In the other draft, I drew the 6th pick and started with Derrick Henry and Tyreek Hill. In this one (the 5th slot) I started with Zeke, then had to mull Kelce or Tyreek Hill at choice 2.08.

After the second round in drafts, things settle down, and you start getting most of the players you’re expecting.

Here’s how the most-recent Fanex Draft played out. Running backs in bold and wide receivers tagged with dots.

FANEX DRAFT (American Conference)
PickPosTmPlayer
1.05RBDALEzekiel Elliott
2.08TEKCTravis Kelce
3.05RBHOUDavid Johnson
4.08WRSEA• Tyler Lockett
5.05WRWAS• Terry McLaurin
6.08WRBAL• Marquise Brown
7.05WRNYJ• Jamison Crowder
8.08WRDET• Marvin Jones
9.05QBATLMatt Ryan
10.08WRNE• N'Keal Harry
11.05QBNECam Newton
12.08RBARIChase Edmonds
13.05RBLARDarrell Henderson
14.08RBPITBenny Snell
15.05RBNEDamien Harris
16.08QBSFJimmy Garoppolo
17.05PKSFRobbie Gould
18.08TEGBJace Sternberger
20.08RBLVJalen Richard
20.08DPHIPhiladelphia

All of these leagues are hosted by MyFantasyLeague, and you can track them on line.

The Fanex Auction League involves 12 teams each spending $200. Trades and waiver moves are allowed during the season.

The Fanex Analysis Draft is the 12-team best-ball league, with no waiver moves. If you go to the “Draft Report” area of the page, you can see the reasoning each owner provides behind his picks.

The traditional Fanex league includes two completely separate conferences. They hold completely independent drafts (both available through this site). They’re 12-team leagues, with waivers, trades and starting lineups.

—Ian Allan

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