CHICAGO (at Detroit)
The Bears are a 3-point underdog in this game, but that looks out of whack. They've had Detroit's number in recent years. Matt Nagy is 4-0 against the Lions. The game will be played at Ford Field, but...
with no fans there, that might not be much of a disadvantage. ... Mitchell Trubisky seems like a lesser quarterback, but here's a week where he's got some chance of putting up decent numbers. Especially if Trubisky is now better than he's in the past. Matt Nagy says that's the case -- that Trubisky simply outperformed Nick Foles at camp. Regardless, Nagy in the last two years has had a good feel for how to attack this defense. The Bears have won the last four, and their quarterbacks in those games have put up 12 TDs and only 1 interception. (That's including a TD run.) Trubisky has thrown
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3 TDs in each of his last three games against this opponent, and he's gone over 335 passing yards in two of those games.
| Bears QB v. Detroit | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Site | Score | Yards | TD | Int |
| '18 | Chi. | 34-22 | 355 | 3 | 0 |
| '18 | Det. | 23-16 | 230 | 2 | 0 |
| '19 | Chi. | 20-13 | 173 | 3 | 0 |
| '19 | Det. | 24-20 | 338 | 3 | 1 |
Because of injury issues, the Bears likely will need to pass more in this game. And Trubisky could enhance his value with some running. He averaged only 13 rushing yards per game last year, which is ordinary, but he was up at 30 yards per game the previous year, and with 3 TD runs (helping him average top-10 per-game numbers that year). Makes a lot of sense in Superflex leagues. On the downside, this is Mitchell Trubisky, with some potential he completely falls apart after some confidence-crushing mistakes early. He averaged only 209 passing yards last year, with 17 TDs in 15 games. For this week, a projection closer to 2018 makes more sense. He averaged 230 passing yards that year, with 24 TDs in 14 games. Detroit last year ranked next-to-last in pass defense, allowing 296 yards per game, and with 33 TD passes. ... David Montgomery (groin) will be limited if he plays at all, and far more likely he'll sit out. That's what we're assuming for now (we'll re-work the projections, if necessary, in the Friday supplement). For this game, it should be a combination of Tarik Cohen and Cordarrelle Patterson at running back. Patterson is listed as a wide receiver on the roster at the team's website, but he was working as a running back in practices in August -- even before Montgomery got hurt. With Patterson being listed as a wide receiver for now, he appears in our list of wide receivers, but it should be at running back that he actually generates his numbers (especially this week). At 6-foot-2 and 238 pounds, Patterson is built more like a running back than a wide receiver, and he played some as a true running back when he was in New England. It would not be a surprise this week if Patterson plays more and finishes with more rushing yards than Cohen, who's more of a change-of-pace and third-down guy. For this game, we're expecting a time-share arrangement with those two backs (the Bears don't have any other tailbacks on their roster). We'll go with a conservative estimate of about 90 rushing yards, with about a 50 percent chance of a rushing touchdown. That's what those guys should be sharing. Chicago last year averaged 91 rushing yards, with 8 TDs, while Detroit had a lesser run defense (116 yards, 13 TDs). Cohen isn't a heavy-duty runner. His value is more as a weapon catching dumpoff passes, and he'll be busier than usual this week. Over the last three years, Cohen has averaged only 21 rushing yards per game, but he's averaged 4.2 catches for 32 yards per week. That's 54 total yards, with 15 TDs in 48 yards (and he should be busier this week). Patterson might run for more yards, and his hands are good enough (he's been a wide receiver for most of his career) but he doesn't have the same feel for executing running back routes out of the backfield. ... With the juicier than expected projections for the passing game, we're higher than usual on the wide receivers. Allen Robinson is the clear No. 1 option. He's in a contract year, and he's torched this defense in the past. He's caught 6-8 passes in each of his last three games against Detroit that Trubisky has started (with a quiet game when Trubisky was missing). In those three Trubisky games, Robinson caught 20 passes for 315 yards and 3 TDs. Looks like a top-10 kind of receiver this week. If you're picking through the lesser receivers, maybe Anthony Miller. In his last game in this building, Miller caught 9 passes for 140 yards. ... Jimmy Graham starts his first game for the Bears, but he looks like a modest prospect. Graham is 34 and wasn't productive in Green Bay. In his 32 games with the Packers, he averaged 2.9 catches for 34 yards, with 5 TDs. ... Eddy Pineiro (groin) is on injured reserve; he'll miss the next three games. It will be Cairo Santos handling the kicking in this game, and he looks like a modest choice. The Bears, at least, have a favorable history in this series, and the Lions last year allowed opposing kickers to score 125 points. (Detroit the previous year went only 6-10 but allowed only 92 kicking points.) ... This doesn't look like a great matchup for the Bears Defense. Matthew Stafford has thrown 2 interceptions in both of his last two starts against them, but more usually he's careful with the ball -- just 5 interceptions in eight games last year, and 10-11 in each of the three previous seasons. Stafford was on pace to take 36 sacks last year before his season-ending injury. Chicago piled up 50 sacks two years ago but slipped to only 32 last year. With teams not having had much tackling practice in August, there's probably enhanced potential for a kick return touchdown, and Chicago has a pair of the best returners in the league (Cordarrelle Patterson on kickoffs and Tarik Cohen on punts).
