I’m not sure of the exact reason, but it appears that the league has gone crazy. Scoring is way beyond what we typically see.
Looking at the last five years, offenses have averaged 38, 38, 35, 40 and 39 touchdowns – just under 2.5 touchdowns per week. Last year, only three teams (offenses) averaged more than 3.0 touchdowns.
It’s still early, but this year 19 teams so far have averaged at least 3 touchdowns per game. Eleven teams are allowing more than 3 touchdowns. (Seattle leading the way, currently on pace to finish with 80 touchdowns).
Only 10 teams are currently averaging fewer touchdowns per week than last year.
| AVERAGE TOUCHDOWNS (last 2 years) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | '19 | '20 | Diff |
| Seattle | 2.9 | 5.0 | 74% |
| Green Bay | 2.8 | 4.3 | 58% |
| Buffalo | 2.1 | 4.0 | 88% |
| Dallas | 3.0 | 3.7 | 22% |
| Las Vegas | 2.6 | 3.7 | 40% |
| • Baltimore | 3.6 | 3.5 | -3% |
| San Francisco | 3.2 | 3.3 | 5% |
| Tampa Bay | 3.0 | 3.3 | 11% |
| Atlanta | 2.4 | 3.3 | 37% |
| Cleveland | 2.3 | 3.3 | 44% |
| LA Rams | 2.3 | 3.3 | 48% |
| New Orleans | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0% |
| Kansas City | 2.9 | 3.0 | 4% |
| Minnesota | 2.8 | 3.0 | 7% |
| New England | 2.6 | 3.0 | 14% |
| Arizona | 2.4 | 3.0 | 26% |
| Chicago | 1.8 | 3.0 | 71% |
| Jacksonville | 1.7 | 3.0 | 78% |
| Pittsburgh | 1.6 | 3.0 | 92% |
| • Tennessee | 3.1 | 2.7 | -15% |
| Miami | 2.0 | 2.7 | 33% |
| Washington | 1.7 | 2.7 | 58% |
| • Houston | 2.8 | 2.3 | -15% |
| Detroit | 2.2 | 2.3 | 7% |
| • Philadelphia | 2.7 | 2.0 | -26% |
| • Indianapolis | 2.4 | 2.0 | -18% |
| • Carolina | 2.3 | 2.0 | -14% |
| Cincinnati | 1.7 | 2.0 | 19% |
| • LA Chargers | 2.2 | 1.7 | -24% |
| • Denver | 1.7 | 1.7 | -1% |
| • NY Jets | 1.6 | 1.3 | -15% |
| • NY Giants | 2.6 | 1.0 | -61% |
What’s going on here?
Offenses, apparently weren’t as adversely affected by the limited offseason work. That’s not what I expected. Typically early in the season, offenses are still working on their timing – it’s defenses that tend to get to top form sooner.
The games aren’t being played in front of full stadiums. That’s probably helping, with offenses not having to overcome crowd noise.
And there was the bizarre story a week or so back where the league admitted it told officials to dial back penalties, sticking to only obvious fouls. They’ve been letting a lot of potential holds slip by.
I’m going to try to work the juiced up scoring into tomorrow’s Redrafter rankings. Typically, I view just short of 2.5 TDs per week as average (with about half the teams above and below that mark). And just a few teams over 3.0 TDs per week. But I think I’m going to have to move up to something more like 2.8 as the average, and some teams teams getting closer to 4 TDs per week.
—Ian Allan