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October 01, 2020

More Fitzmagic?

Miami hosts Seattle's leaky pass defense

Ryan Fitzpatrick, I think, is the most interesting player for Week 4. He’s a lesser quarterback (maybe entering his final month as an NFL starter) but he’s got some ability to throw it around, and he’s at home against a defense that’s been giving up a ton of passing yards.

The Seahawks, remarkably, have allowed at least 397 passing yards in all of their games so far. They’re allowed more passing yards through three weeks than any team in NFL history. Fitzpatrick, meanwhile, completed 90 percent of his passes last week in Jacksonville. Back in Week 2, he passed for 328 against Buffalo, with 2 TD passes and a touchdown run.

It all seems to fit together, and nobody will be surprised if Fitzpatrick is a top-10 quarterback this week.

But just for the heck of it, let’s look at how past quarterbacks have fared when venturing into similar territory. In the past 10 years, 59 NFL defenses have allowed an average of at least 300 passing yards in their first three games. We can then look at the passing stats of the teams that played against them in Week 4 of those seasons.

The numbers aren’t nearly as good as I expected.

Of those 59 quarterbacks who were queued up against juicy pass defenses in can’t-miss situations, 25 surprisingly finished with fewer than 250 passing yards. That’s over 40 percent (and I’ve got those teams tagged with black dots).

And 33 of those defenses (more than half) allowed fewer than 2 TD passes. I’ve also got them tagged with the dreaded black dots.

So with these 59 defenses, where it looked as if there was very little chance of anything but big numbers occurring, less than a third of the opposing quarterbacks actually ended up cashing in big.

Chart appears below. And it shows the name not of the quarterback but of the super leaky pass defense. You see the number of passing yards allowed in those first three games, then you see the production of the opposing team in that fourth game: passing yards, passing touchdowns and fantasy points (using 4 points for TD passes and 1 point for every 20 passing yards).

Every time you see a black dot, that means something fell short (either the quarterback didn’t pass for 250 yards, or he didn’t throw 2 TDs). For defenses with two black dots, that means the opponent underperformed in both of those categories.

This chart applies this year to Fitzpatrick, and also to Aaron Rodgers (home against Atlanta) and Deshaun Watson (home against Minnesota).

LEAKY PASS DEFENSES: STATS FROM WEEK 4
YearDefenseWks 1-3YardsTDPPts
2020Seattle1,319???
2011•New England1,163344121.2
2011Green Bay1,153273325.7
2010Houston1,143278221.9
2018••Kansas City1,127245012.3
2018Tampa Bay1,126354641.7
2012•Tampa Bay1,096323016.2
2020Atlanta1,088???
2013•San Diego1,073244220.2
2013••Washington1,068227115.4
2012•Washington1,050299119.0
2013•Denver1,040297118.9
2019••NY Giants1,03814407.2
2018•New Orleans1,037255116.8
2015•NY Giants1,035274117.7
2016•Oakland1,033298118.9
2017New England1,025316327.8
2016•San Diego1,023206218.3
2013Philadelphia1,021327432.4
2010•Washington1,014250116.5
2015•Buffalo1,006212322.6
2014Jacksonville1,000377330.9
2016Pittsburgh996287222.4
2015Oakland994281222.1
2016••Green Bay991199114.0
2010Seattle987289222.5
2013•Minnesota979383123.2
2017••New Orleans97716408.2
2012•Tennessee970202218.1
2013•Green Bay967262117.1
2017•Tampa Bay958303119.2
2011•Miami957307119.4
2019••New Orleans957223011.2
2016Atlanta956337328.9
2011•Minnesota956260117.0
2019••Pittsburgh95017108.6
2012Miami945324328.2
2013Atlanta945316223.8
2016••Washington942223115.2
2011•Oakland937226219.3
2016•Indianapolis936207218.4
2018Pittsburgh934363226.2
2011••New Orleans929196113.8
2016New Orleans927321224.1
2012•Baltimore927320016.0
2015•Kansas City923321120.1
2010Jacksonville920352225.6
2013••Arizona919193113.7
2016••Buffalo919205010.3
2019••Arizona918240116.0
2013••Chicago915242116.1
2013Dallas913401332.1
2019•Baltimore913342121.1
2013•St. Louis911167216.4
2015••San Francisco911224115.2
2016NY Jets910309327.5
2015••Baltimore909124110.2
2018San Francisco905250324.5
2019Philadelphia901422229.1
2019••Houston901232011.6
2014••Denver900199114.0
2020Minnesota899???

—Ian Allan

Ryan Fitzpatrick Aaron Rodgers Deshaun Watson
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