Dynasty Leagues

October 17, 2020

Is Herbert for real?

Revised long-term quarterback rankings

At what point do we agree that Justin Herbert is for real? He’s been starting for a month, and he’s looking like he’s going to be a good quarterback for a lot of years.

Herbert has good size and mobility, and he’s connected on a lot of downfield passes. He’s not a typical rookie, where they’re trying to protect him by having him throw a lot of safe, check-down type passes. He’s challenging defenses with longer passes, and he’s shown the ability to keep his eyes downfield even when scrambling around – his touchdown to Keenan Allen on Monday night was a beauty (rolling right to escape pressure, then firing a laser).

If we’re walking into a dynasty draft today (with teams allowed to keep players indefinitely) I would think Herbert would be one of the first few quarterbacks chosen. He’s not as good today as Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers, but he’s a lot younger than those guys. Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson have done some really cool things, but are they still going to be elite quarterbacks in five years (are their playing styles sustainable)?

Deshaun Watson and Josh Allen have thicker NFL resumes, but are they still going to be better than Herbert two years from now? Watson looks like more of a durability risk, while Allen has had some issues with accuracy and decision making.

In my eyes, Herbert is right there with Joe Burrow. These guys are just rookies, but they look like they’re going to be very good quarterbacks for years and years. In a dynasty format, I would think they would both need to be among the first 10 quarterbacks chosen.

For dynasty purposes, I last checked in on quarterbacks a month ago. Since that time, the biggest faller would be Matt Ryan, who drops all of the way out of the top 20. He’s 35, and I think they’re blowing things up in Atlanta now. I don’t think he’ll be starting there next year. (If not, I wonder if Ryan might re-unite with Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco, given Jimmy Garoppolo’s struggles.)

I haven’t dropped Dak Prescott as far. He’ll miss the rest of this season, but I’m assuming he’ll be healthy and starting for Dallas in 2021, with the potential for top-5 numbers.

I turn my attention to long-term rankings each Saturday, rotating between the four major position. I hit the wide receivers last week, and next Saturday, it will be back to the running backs. (To access previous lists, use the “Past Issues” link on the right side of the page.)

DYNASTY LEAGUES; QUARTERBACKS
Rk	Tm	Player	Age
1.	KC	Patrick Mahomes	24
2.	HOU	Deshaun Watson	24
3.	SEA	Russell Wilson	31
4.	BAL	Lamar Jackson	23
5.	BUF	Josh Allen	24
6.	CIN	• Joe Burrow	23
7.	LAC	• Justin Herbert	22
8.	ARI	Kyler Murray	22
9.	GB	Aaron Rodgers	36
10.	DET	Matthew Stafford	32
11.	LAR	Jared Goff	25
12.	NE	Cam Newton	31
13.	DAL	Dak Prescott	26
14.	PHI	Carson Wentz	27
15.	JAC	Gardner Minshew	25
16.	CLE	Baker Mayfield	25
17.	LV	Derek Carr	29
18.	MIA	• Tua Tagovailoa	22
19.	NYG	Daniel Jones	23
20.	MIN	Kirk Cousins	31
21.	TEN	Ryan Tannehill	31
22.	PIT	Ben Roethlisberger	38
23.	TB	Tom Brady	42
24.	CAR	Teddy Bridgewater	27
25.	ATL	Matt Ryan	35
26.	NO	Drew Brees	41
27.	DAL	Andy Dalton	32
28.	DEN	Drew Lock	23
29.	NYJ	Sam Darnold	23
30.	CHI	Nick Foles	31
31.	NO	Taysom Hill	29
32.	SF	Jimmy Garoppolo	28
33.	GB	• Jordan Love	21
34.	MIA	Ryan Fitzpatrick	37
35.	WAS	Kyle Allen	24
36.	IND	Philip Rivers	38
37.	WAS	Dwayne Haskins	23
38.	IND	Jacoby Brissett	27
39.	SF	C.J. Beathard	26
40.	NO	Jameis Winston	26
41.	CHI	Mitchell Trubisky	25
42.	PHI	• Jalen Hurts	21
43.	CLE	Case Keenum	32
44.	LAC	Tyrod Taylor	30
45.	LV	Marcus Mariota	26
46.	NE	Jarrett Stidham	23
47.	KC	Chad Henne	35
48.	NYJ	Joe Flacco	35
49.	SF	Nick Mullens	25
50.	BAL	Robert Griffin	30

—Ian Allan

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