CAROLINA (vs Detroit)
The matchup here could hardly be more favorable. Only three teams have allowed more points than the Lions, and only five have allowed more yards. Only one offense all year has failed to score at least 3 TDs against the Lions -- the lowly Jaguars. But...
... the Panthers have key injuries right now, making it harder for them to take advantage. Christian McCaffrey isn't expected to play, and Carolina could also be without its starting quarterback. At full strength, Carolina would score 3-4 TDs against this opponent, but probably just 2-3 TDs given the circumstances (and with just 2 TDs perhaps more likely). ... Teddy Bridgewater (knee) left the Tampa Bay game. Matt Rhule says he's hopeful Bridgewater will play, but that's probably overly optimistic. If Bridgewater plays, it will be at less than 100 percent. And with the Panthers sitting at 3-7, there's not a burning need to put him on the field. If Bridgewater were 100 percent, he would probably put up above-average numbers. The Lions thus far are allowing 272 passing yards per game, and at just short of 2 TD passes per week. With most of his games against stronger opponents, Bridgewater thus far has tended to put up below-average numbers. He's averaging 252 passing yards, which is just below the league average, but with only 13 TD passes in 10 games. He's ...
This report is taken from today's Week 11 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 16 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... run more than most quarterbacks (196 yards, 3 TDs) but he won't be scrambling as often if he's playing on a bad knee. Probably more likely the Panthers will use one of their young quarterbacks, but neither has shown anything that suggests they would be anywhere near as effective as Bridgewater. P.J. Walker and Will Grier have shared the backup job so far; each has been active for half of the team's games. Walker thus far has completed 3 of 8 passes for 15 yards. He played for Rhule at Temple and was last playing in the XFL. Grier was a third-round pick a year; he went 0-2 as a starter as a rookie, with no touchdowns and 4 interceptions. ... Mike Davis looks very good. He's a capable backup, and this is a pretty awful run defense he'll face. The Lions rank 30th in run defense, up at 142 yards per carry, and four straight opponents have scored multiple rushing touchdowns against them. Davis wasn't effective on Sunday against Tampa Bay, but that's the league's top-ranked run defense. Davis has averaged 58 rushing and 28 receiving yards in his other six starts, with 4 TDs. On the downside, the Panthers aren't using Davis as much in the passing game as they were earlier in the year. He's totaled only 60 receiving yards in his last four games. He averaged 52 in the Week 2-5 games. But in general, he looks like a starter-type guy. ... It's an above-average situation for the wide receivers. Despite being terrible against the run, the Lions also have a bottom-10 pass defense (up at 272 yards per week, and with 17 TDs). Washington didn't throw a touchdown against them last week, but the Lions previously allowed multiple touchdown passes in six of their first eight. But it's a three-man mix. Robby Anderson was dominating the looks earlier in the year, but he's tailed off. He averaged 98 receiving yards in his first five games, but he's averaged only 57 in his last five, with five of his six worst games of the season. Anderson hasn't scored since busting loose for an unlikely long touchdown against the Raiders in Week 1. DJ Moore has been more consistent; he's averaged 71 yards in his last five games, which is only 5 less than what he was averaging in Weeks 1-5. And Moore has been a better scorer, with 4 TDs in his last six games. Curtis Samuel isn't as involved but has scored a team-high 4 TDs in the last four games. Samuel is averaging only 47 receiving yards per week, but they also line him up regularly as a running back -- he's carried the ball in all eight of his games. Including rushing production, he's averaging 60 yards per game. On our wide receiver projections, they'll change on Friday, when it's clearer who's starting at quarterback. If it's Bridgewater, the passing projection will be increased and they'll move up. If it's Will Grier or P.J. Walker, they'll move down some. ... The Panthers don't use their tight ends much in the passing game. With the season more than half over, they don't have one with 100 yards. Ian Thomas and Colin Thompson have each caught one touchdown. ... Joey Slye has attempted 25 field goals, tying for most in the league. But he's unlikely to see that kind of workload this week. Not with Detroit coming to town. The Lions thus far have had the worst defense at coming up with stops in key situations -- they're the only team where opposing kickers have attempted 3 times as many extra points (31) as field goals (10). With that unusually crappy defense, Detroit hasn't been a kicker-friendly opponent. Only three teams have allowed fewer kicking points. ... The Panthers Defense is a below-average option. The Lions have been involved in 22 sacks and 8 interceptions, which are slightly below-average numbers. But Carolina simply doesn't bring much to the table. Only the Jaguars average fewer sacks, and Carolina is sitting at only 5 interceptions. The Panthers have one of only three defenses that's recovered more than 7 fumbles, but that doesn't look particularly likely to happen this week. The Lions are one of only two teams that's lost only one fumble all year.