NEW ENGLAND (vs. Ariz.)
New England's offense has been a disappointment. It's scored only 11 touchdowns in its last six games, and that's despite two thirds of those teams having losing records. But the Patriots have a reasonable chance at ...
... average numbers this week. They're at home against a defense that's struggled for the bulk of the season. In their last seven games, Arizona has been able to hold only two offenses to fewer than 3 TDs -- the lowly Jets and Cowboys. ... You never know what you're going to get with Cam Newton. Twice this year he's thrown for more than 360 yards, but he's averaged only 163 in his other seven, finishing under 175 yards in all but one of those games. In those games, he tended to rely more on his running ability, averaging 41 rushing yards (that's equal to 82 passing yards in most fantasy formats). Newton hasn't been a good touchdown thrower all year; he's thrown only 4 TDs in nine games (has picked up a little recently, at least, with a touchdown in each of the last two games). He's been more consistent as a running force near the goal line -- 9 TD runs in nine games. Whether it's by run or pass, Newton should manage some goodness against Arizona. It's been a long time since the Cardinals have had much success slowing down any viable offenses. Almost everyone scores 3-plus touchdowns against these guys. So the Patriots, despite their limitations, look like a good candidate for 2-3 TDs, with ...
This report is taken from today's Week 12 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 22 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
Haven't ordered yet? BUY IT NOW! Already a subscriber? LOG IN!
... 3 more likely. And if they score 3, Newton probably will be involved in a couple of them. In his nine games the offense has scored 20 touchdowns, and he's been involved in 65 percent of those scores. ... The Patriots probably will put up big rushing numbers. They're averaging 154 rushing yards per week, and they had gone for 159-plus in three straight before going with a more air-oriented approach on Sunday. Arizona, meanwhile, has been below-average against the run; the Seahawks just hit them for 165. So probably one of those games, and probably with a touchdown or two. But it will be a committee approach. Cam Newton averages 38 rushing yards, and he's scored 60 percent of their 15 rushing touchdowns. Damien Harris should be their starter and main runner. He's averaged 73 rushing in his seven games, but with just 2 TDs (and also just 6 receiving yards per game). Since Harris became the starter, Rex Burkhead has averaged 27 rushing and 14 receiving yards, with 3 TDs in seven games, but he's now out for the year with a torn ACL. So they'll need other backs to play more. Sony Michel for sure; they just activated him off IR. Michel was their starter in the first three weeks, averaging 58 rushing and 8 receiving yards, with a touchdown. Neither Harris nor Michel is much of a pass catcher, so James White is certain to have a role. White thus far has averaged 9 rushing and 33 receiving yards, but with no touchdowns in his eight games. With Burkhead (25 catches) gone, White probably will be used even more in the passing game. White will be at his best in those rare games where the Patriots pass more, but those are tough to see coming (Newton has finished under 175 passing yards in two thirds of his games). ... The wide receivers are looking better today than they did a month ago. Damiere Byrd came up big at Houston, with 132 yards and a touchdown. He was an underused afterthought with Arizona last year, and no doubt he'd like to play well against his former team (for whatever that's worth). Jakobi Meyers caught only 3 passes for 38 yards at Houston but over the previous month was one of the hotter receivers in the league (he averaged 7 catches for 87 yards in his previous four games). Some will reasonably conclude that Meyers, not Byrd, will be the team's best receiver this week. With both receivers, you would be hoping that they go with more of a pass-oriented approach rather than running the ball, and that doesn't look super likely. There's also the potential that some other receiver shows up as a factor this week. N'Keal Harry has been a disappointment this year, but he caught 5 passes for 41 yards at Houston. Julian Edelman is eligible to come off IR, and he probably will have a decent role once they dust him off. But Edelman isn't practicing right now, so he looks unlikely. ... The Patriots don't have a viable tight end. Ryan Izzo caught 2 passes in the final 8 seconds of the Houston game, but he's caught only 10 other passes all year. ... We'll rank Nick Folk higher than usual, given Arizona's defensive issues. The Cardinals haven't had much success slowing down opposing offenses, and that's spilled over to the kicking position. Arizona has been a bottom-10 team against kickers, allowing 8 points per week. Folk, though, has been a modest kicker, averaging only 6.9 per game. In each of his last three games at home he's scored 5-6 points, and two of those matchups looked very favorable going in. ... The Patriots Defense looks like a below-average choice. Sacks tends to be the most important stat for defenses in most fantasy leagues, and it's definitely weak there. They've got only 13 sacks all year (only three defenses have fewer) while Kyler Murray is tough to pin down -- he's taken only 16 sacks. New England has picked off 11 passes while the Cardinals have thrown 8, so probably one there.