TENNESSEE (vs. Cleveland)
After a midseason downturn (17-24 points in four straight, and just a 1-3 record in those contests), the Titans have racked up 75 points in road wins against quality defenses (Ravens and Colts) the last two weeks. Now they're back home and ...
... facing a mediocre defense -- at best. If you do nothing more than set aside a three-game homestand marred by high winds and rain, the Browns have allowed an average of 31 points and 3.5 touchdowns per game. Tennessee scored 43 against the Browns early last season, with Marcus Mariota at quarterback. Good situation for Tennessee's offense. ... Most will recall Derrick Henry putting up huge numbers down the stretch a year ago, rushing for 149-plus yards in four of last six games, with 10 touchdowns in those contests. He then rushed for over 180 in playoff wins the next two weeks. Henry's been pretty good all season, averaging 114 rushing yards, but has showed signs of one of those kinds of streaks in the last two wins: an average of 156 rushing yards, and with 4 touchdowns. Cleveland ranks 10th in run defense, allowing 108 rushing yards per game, so not an ideal matchup. But Henry's played four other games against top-10 run defenses, including three straight, and been perfectly fine in those contests.
| Henry vs. top-10 run defenses | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opp | Att | Yds | Avg | TD |
| Pitt. | 20 | 75 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Ind. | 19 | 103 | 5.4 | 0 |
| at Balt. | 28 | 133 | 4.8 | 1 |
| at Ind. | 27 | 178 | 6.6 | 3 |
This report is taken from today's Week 13 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 22 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... Cleveland has allowed just 10 rushing scores, but with Tennessee having scored 15 (6th-most) no one should be concerned about Henry getting in the end zone at some point. Jeremy McNichols (in obvious passing situations) and D'Onta Foreman will pick up change-of-pace work with minimal impact (each averages about 20 yards per game). ... Statistically it's a more favorable situation for Ryan Tannehill. Cleveland ranks 22nd in pass defense, which would be worse but for those weather-affected games -- Deshaun Watson especially and also Derek Carr would have been better had not high winds made passing next to impossible. Even with those contests the Browns are allowing 264 yards and exactly 2 touchdown passes per game. But that's not really how Tennessee has tended to play, and that will be especially true if Henry is ripping off good chunks of yards on the ground (which we expect). Tannehill has thrown for even 250 yards just three times all season; he's averaging 237 per game. He's been better for touchdowns (23 passes and 2 rushing scores in his 11 games). When including rushing production (14 yards per game), strong chance he finishes with a couple of touchdowns. Probably an above-average quarterback for Week 13, but unlikely to rank in the top 10. ... A.J. Brown has been pretty good most of the season. Since coming back from a knee injury, he's averaged 75 yards in his last eight games, with 9 total touchdowns -- at least 1 score in all but one of those games. He's got loads of big-play ability, with a 69-yard touchdown reception last week and then another score where he scooped up an onside kick and brought it back 46 yards. A couple of games under 25 receiving yards, due primarily to being underutilized at times. He hasn't had 10 targets in a game all season, and averages just over 7 per game. But unlikely to be forgotten against a defense that's allowed 13 touchdowns to wide receivers. Corey Davis has put up similar numbers (except as a scorer), catching 2 more passes for just 19 fewer yards. Just 3 touchdowns, but relative to where the two were drafted, no one who selected Davis should be complaining. Adam Humphries has now missed four games due to a concussion. Even if he returns, he likely wouldn't have a big impact. He averaged 44 yards in the five games he was available for, with 2 touchdowns. Probably limited snaps if he plays at all. ... Jonnu Smith gets a healthy number of red-zone looks, helping him score 8 total touchdowns. But he's averaging under 3 receptions, and will be forgotten at times -- wasn't targeted at all last week. Cleveland has allowed 8 touchdowns to tight ends, including 4 in the last three weeks, so a good situation for scoring. But Anthony Firkser needs to be included as a candidate for those looks. Just 1 TD, but he's caught only one fewer pass (30-29) on the season. ... Stephen Gostkowski has knocked in 9-10 points two weeks in a row. He's made only two-thirds of his field goal attempts (16 of 24), but seems to have settled down lately (4 of 4 the last two weeks), and is 32 of 34 on extra points. The Browns are allowing just about 7 kicking points per game, so only a so-so matchup. ... The Titans Defense has 11 interceptions but just 14 sacks. Cleveland's run-focused offense has made Baker Mayfield a mediocre to poor matchup for both (7 interceptions, 17 sacks).