DALLAS (vs. Philadelphia)
The Cowboys with Andy Dalton have been better than you might realize. They've scored 30-plus points in three of five, with the exceptions a pair of very capable defenses (Washington and Baltimore). Remarkably they can still win ...
... the NFC East: two wins and two Washington losses will get it done. The Eagles have a poor defense, below-average against both the run and the pass. They've held one offense below 20 points all season (the Cowboys, but that was with Ben DiNucci at quarterback). Dallas should be good for 2-3 touchdowns this week, with 3 TDs more likely. ... Ezekiel Elliott had never missed a game in college or the pros, so it was shocking when he was inactive with a calf injury last week, even though he hadn't practiced. The question is whether Dallas will elect to hold him out again, considering the 132 total yards put up by Tony Pollard was more than Elliott has had in a game all season. If Elliott plays, it should be more of a committee. Pollard had been playing about 30-40 percent of the snaps in recent weeks, and it might be a 50-50 split now. If he's out, Pollard would be in line to again finish as one of the week's top running backs. The Eagles have a bottom-10 run defense, allowing 126 yards per game and 19 touchdowns (4th-most). They've allowed at least 130 rushing yards eight times, and at least 1 rushing score in all but two games (Bengals and those Ben DiNucci Cowboys). If they're able to slow Dallas on the ground, Pollard will make a big impact as a receiver. With the job to himself last week, he caught 6 for 63 against San Francisco; he also caught a touchdown at Cincinnati the previous game. Pollard (and Elliott) wouldn't look as good in a committee, but there's at least some chance Pollard will again be a one-man show. He was a lot more effective than Elliott in the earlier meeting, carrying 7 times for 40 yards (Elliott ran it 19 times for just 63 yards). The Eagles didn't have to respect the passing game in that one; should be different this time around. ...
This report is taken from today's Week 16 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 23 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... Philadelphia has a closer to average ranking defending the pass (19th), but that's a suspect number. Playing in the NFC East, they've played a chunk of the schedule against Dwayne Haskins, Daniel Jones and Ben DiNucci. Capable quarterbacks have done fine (Kyler Murray just threw for over 400). Andy Dalton in his six full games has put up credible, if below average, numbers, averaging 227 passing yards, and with 10 touchdowns in his last five (multiple touchdown passes in all but one of those). Three of his starts were against tough defenses (Washington twice and Baltimore). The Eagles have a strong pass rush (44 sacks), but don't force many mistakes (5 interceptions). Not an easy opponent (they've allowed just 22 touchdown passes), but not one that's shutting down opposing quarterbacks. Philadelphia's offense has been more prolific with Jalen Hurts in the lineup, so there's some shootout potential here, which would compel Dalton to do a little more. Average yards and 1-2 touchdowns, with 2 a little more likely, look reasonable. ... It's a three-man mix at wideout, but there might be a new face in the grouping this week. Michael Gallup left the last game with a hip pointer, the kind of injury likely to sideline him this week. Gallup caught 3 passes and a touchdown last week, and was also the team's best receiver in the earlier meeting (7 for 61), so those looks will now go to other players. Noah Brown replaced him, but Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb should also benefit from a few extra targets. Cooper comes off a dud against San Francisco, but came into the game having scored in three straight and catching 4-6 passes in five straight. Lamb has cooled off since a hot start to the season (with Dak Prescott), but caught 5 for 85 last week, his best game with Dalton. He also scored a "kick return" touchdown, scooping up an onside kick. Dallas can think about winning the NFC East, but if they're looking at all at personal goals they might help Lamb get up over 1,000 receiving yards (he needs to average 87 in the final two games to get there). Philadelphia has allowed a fairly average 13 touchdowns to wide receivers, but Cooper and Lamb look like the best bets for targets. ... Dalton Schultz caught 6 for 53 on 8 targets in the earlier meeting, but that was with DiNucci checking down regularly. Schultz with Dalton the last five weeks averages 4 targets; not as busy. Nice efficiency, though: he's caught 18 of 20 passes sent his way, and with 2 TDs, in those games. Looks like another 3-4 catch game coming up, so some nominal PPR value. Eagles have allowed 8 touchdowns to tight ends, fewer than only six teams. ... Greg Zuerlein isn't having his best year, missing 7 field goals and 3 extra points. But he's been getting plenty of opportunities, averaging 7.8 kicking points, with at least 9 in five of his last seven. ... The Cowboys Defense is a lesser group on its own merits, with 18 takeaways and 26 sacks. But the Eagles are in town, and they've taken 11 more sacks than any other team while turning it over 23 times (4th-most). Most of that is Carson Wentz (that's why he's on the bench), but Jalen Hurts is learning on the go, and for all his mobility he's been shaky in terms of handling a collapsing pocket. In a little over two games as a starter he's taken 9 sacks and fumbled 4 times (though just 1 lost), while also taking a safety. As long as you're not penalized for points allowed, Dallas has some streaming potential.