At what point do we give up on N’Keal Harry? The Patriots selected him with the final pick in the first round of the 2019 draft, but he hasn’t done much in his first two seasons. Is there any chance of him turning things around?
It’s not fair to say Harry has been a disaster. He’s made a few catches here and there (especially late in his first year). He was hurt for the first half of his rookie season, and New England’s offense was generally dysfunctional last year.
Nonetheless, the Patriots got their best wide receiver play last year out of Jakobi Meyers, who came into the league the same year as Harry (only as an undrafted free agent). And Damiere Byrd (also unheralded) was more productive last year.
It looks uglier when you consider the many quality receivers who were selected after Harry in that 2019 draft: DK Metcalf, A.J. Brown, Deebo Samuel, Terry McLaurin. Diontae Johnson, Mecole Hardman, Scotty Miller, Darius Slayton and Hunter Renfrow have also been better.
I ran some numbers on this. In the last 20 years, there have been 37 other wide receivers who were selected in the first or second round who didn’t rank in the top 80 in production in either of their first two years (using PPR scoring). Only five of those players in their third season finished with top-40 numbers. Nelson Agholor (23rd), Robert Meachem (26th) and Darrius Heyward-Bey (28th) were the best.
Of the players in this group, Jordy Nelson went on to have the best career (not much production in his first three seasons, but he became a true superstar).
For the vast majority of guys, however, if you haven’t done it in your first two seasons, that’s a good indication it’s probably just not going to happen.
With Harry, my guess right now is that he won’t be drafted in the vast majority of leagues. But it’s early. Let’s see who else they’ve got at the position, who’s quarterbacking, and whether Harry looks likely to start. Maybe the light comes on for him. If he’s looking like he’ll be a starter, then I would think he’ll be selected in the late round with a flyer pick (on the off chance he develops into something).
On this chart below, these are all guys who didn’t rank in the top 80 in PPR production in either of their first two seasons. The numbers you see below show their numbers from their third year. The five who ranked in the top 40, I’ve got them tagged with black dots.
| SLOW-STARTING WIDE RECEIVERS (last 20 years) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pk | No | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2000 | Joe Jurevicius, NYG | 55 | 24 | 272 | 1 | 57.2 | 81 |
| 2002 | • Jerry Porter, Oak. | 47 | 51 | 688 | 9 | 178.4 | 30 |
| 2003 | Freddie Mitchell, Phil. | 25 | 35 | 498 | 2 | 102.1 | 69 |
| 2004 | Reche Caldwell, S.D. | 48 | 18 | 310 | 3 | 71.5 | 88 |
| 2004 | Tim Carter, NYG | 46 | 12 | 182 | 1 | 38.5 | 109 |
| 2005 | Tyrone Calico, Ten. | 60 | 22 | 191 | 0 | 41.1 | 107 |
| 2005 | Charles Rogers, Det. | 2 | 14 | 197 | 1 | 39.7 | 110 |
| 2005 | Taylor Jacobs, Was. | 44 | 11 | 100 | 0 | 21.0 | 134 |
| 2005 | Bethel Johnson, N.E. | 45 | 4 | 67 | 1 | 16.7 | 139 |
| 2006 | Devery Henderson, N.O. | 50 | 32 | 745 | 6 | 143.9 | 41 |
| 2007 | Roscoe Parrish, Buff. | 55 | 35 | 352 | 3 | 90.1 | 75 |
| 2007 | Mark Bradley, Chi. | 39 | 6 | 71 | 1 | 19.1 | 135 |
| 2007 | Mike Williams, 2TM | 10 | 7 | 90 | 0 | 16.0 | 143 |
| 2008 | Sinorice Moss, NYG | 44 | 12 | 153 | 2 | 39.3 | 108 |
| 2008 | Chad Jackson, Den. | 36 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 2.9 | 167 |
| 2009 | • Robert Meachem, N.O. | 27 | 45 | 722 | 10 | 185.4 | 26 |
| 2009 | Dwayne Jarrett, Car. | 45 | 17 | 196 | 1 | 42.6 | 108 |
| 2009 | Craig Davis, S.D. | 30 | 6 | 52 | 0 | 11.6 | 140 |
| 2010 | Jordy Nelson, G.B. | 36 | 45 | 582 | 2 | 115.2 | 65 |
| 2010 | Jerome Simpson, Cin. | 46 | 20 | 277 | 3 | 65.9 | 93 |
| 2010 | Devin Thomas, 3TM | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | 187 |
| 2011 | • Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oak. | 7 | 64 | 975 | 4 | 185.5 | 28 |
| 2011 | Brian Robiskie, Cle. | 36 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 5.5 | 172 |
| 2012 | Arrelious Benn, T.B. | 39 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 8.2 | 166 |
| 2013 | Jonathan Baldwin, S.F. | 26 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 5.8 | 171 |
| 2014 | Brian Quick, St.L. | 33 | 25 | 375 | 3 | 80.5 | 90 |
| 2014 | A.J. Jenkins, K.C. | 30 | 9 | 93 | 0 | 18.1 | 145 |
| 2014 | Ryan Broyles, Det. | 54 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 4.5 | 172 |
| 2015 | Justin Hunter, Ten. | 34 | 22 | 264 | 1 | 54.4 | 103 |
| 2016 | • Marqise Lee, Jac. | 39 | 63 | 851 | 4 | 180.6 | 40 |
| 2016 | Paul Richardson, Sea. | 45 | 21 | 288 | 1 | 56.3 | 105 |
| 2016 | Cody Latimer, Den. | 56 | 8 | 76 | 0 | 15.6 | 155 |
| 2017 | • Nelson Agholor, Phil. | 20 | 62 | 768 | 9 | 193.5 | 23 |
| 2017 | Kevin White, Chi. | 7 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2.6 | 189 |
| 2018 | Laquon Treadwell, Min. | 23 | 35 | 302 | 1 | 71.2 | 94 |
| 2018 | Corey Coleman, NYG | 15 | 5 | 71 | 0 | 12.6 | 165 |
| 2019 | John Ross, Cin. | 9 | 28 | 506 | 3 | 97.0 | 74 |
| 2021 | N'Keal Harry, N.E. | 32 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan