There was a report yesterday that a Matthew Stafford trade should be expected soon. Very soon indeed: it happened overnight. Stafford is a Ram and Jared Goff is a Lion, and Detroit also gets two first-round picks and a third-rounder. Former No. 1 overall picks swapped for each other; shocking stuff.
If the price seems high for a 33-year-old (next week) quarterback, consider that built into the deal is the Lions taking on Goff's monster contract. (Consider also that the Lions aren't even getting a first-round pick this year, which can't be pleasing to Lions fans; Jacksonville already has the Rams' first-rounder this year from the Jalen Ramsey trade.) Goff's contract is going to count roughly $30 million against the salary cap in each of the next two seasons, considerably more than Stafford's. So shedding that ill-advised deal is a part of what the Rams are paying for with their picks.
Fantasy-wise, it's hard not to like the deal for Los Angeles. Goff has disappointed, particularly in the postseason; despite great talent around him and one of the league's best offensive coaching minds, he's generally seemed to hold the offense back; they've tried to hide him in the game plan more often than not. Stafford is a more aggressive downfield passer, which should benefit all the team's receivers and the running game as well. Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee, Cam Akers -- looks like a plus for all those guys.
For the Lions? Well, they'll have extra first-round picks in 2022 and 2023. That's not nothing. And about the 87th pick this year, whoohoo. But they'll go into the season with Jared Goff at quarterback, which it's hard to view with a lot of excitement.
Back in 2018, when the Rams went to the Super Bowl and Goff's play got him signed to that big contract, his numbers suggested he was the kind of aggressive downfield passer that merited such a deal. He averaged 8.36 yards per attempt, which was a top-3 number that year (up with Patrick Mahomes and, slightly more surprisingly, Philip Rivers).
But in the two years since signing that deal, Goff has been a different quarterback, perhaps partly due to his own play and partly due to Sean McVay adjusting the offense to hide him. In those two seasons Goff's yards per attempt has dipped to 7.41 and 7.16. Might not sound like a huge difference, but those are well below average among regular starting quarterbacks in those two seasons. Stafford's 8.59 when healthy in 2019 was the league's 3rd-highest total over those two years, while this year's 7.73 (while playing hurt and with Kenny Golladay sidelined most of the season) was also a top-25 performance. (Search engines at pro-football-reference.com used to generate this table.)
| QB YARDS PER ATTEMPT, 2019-2020 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Year | Y/A | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Int |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2019 | 9.59 | 201 | 286 | 70.3 | 2742 | 22 | 6 |
| Deshaun Watson | 2020 | 8.87 | 382 | 544 | 70.2 | 4823 | 33 | 7 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2019 | 8.59 | 187 | 291 | 64.3 | 2499 | 19 | 5 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 2019 | 8.36 | 329 | 476 | 69.1 | 3978 | 27 | 13 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2019 | 8.33 | 319 | 484 | 65.9 | 4031 | 26 | 5 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2020 | 8.27 | 349 | 516 | 67.6 | 4265 | 35 | 13 |
| Dak Prescott | 2019 | 8.22 | 388 | 596 | 65.1 | 4902 | 30 | 11 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2020 | 8.17 | 372 | 526 | 70.7 | 4299 | 48 | 5 |
| Jameis Winston | 2019 | 8.16 | 380 | 626 | 60.7 | 5109 | 33 | 30 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2019 | 8.11 | 307 | 444 | 69.1 | 3603 | 26 | 6 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2020 | 8.06 | 390 | 588 | 66.3 | 4740 | 38 | 6 |
| Russell Wilson | 2019 | 7.97 | 341 | 516 | 66.1 | 4110 | 31 | 5 |
| Josh Allen | 2020 | 7.94 | 396 | 572 | 69.2 | 4544 | 37 | 10 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2020 | 7.94 | 315 | 481 | 65.5 | 3819 | 33 | 7 |
| Derek Carr | 2020 | 7.94 | 348 | 517 | 67.3 | 4103 | 27 | 9 |
| Derek Carr | 2019 | 7.90 | 361 | 513 | 70.4 | 4054 | 21 | 8 |
| Drew Brees | 2019 | 7.88 | 281 | 378 | 74.3 | 2979 | 27 | 4 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 2020 | 7.83 | 183 | 267 | 68.5 | 2091 | 13 | 8 |
| Philip Rivers | 2019 | 7.81 | 390 | 591 | 66.0 | 4615 | 23 | 20 |
| Lamar Jackson | 2019 | 7.80 | 265 | 401 | 66.1 | 3127 | 36 | 6 |
| Deshaun Watson | 2019 | 7.78 | 333 | 495 | 67.3 | 3852 | 26 | 12 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2020 | 7.73 | 339 | 528 | 64.2 | 4084 | 26 | 10 |
| Philip Rivers | 2020 | 7.68 | 369 | 543 | 68.0 | 4169 | 24 | 11 |
| Tom Brady | 2020 | 7.60 | 401 | 610 | 65.7 | 4633 | 40 | 12 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 2020 | 7.59 | 340 | 492 | 69.1 | 3733 | 15 | 11 |
| Russell Wilson | 2020 | 7.55 | 384 | 558 | 68.8 | 4212 | 40 | 13 |
| Drew Brees | 2020 | 7.54 | 275 | 390 | 70.5 | 2942 | 24 | 6 |
| Nick Mullens | 2020 | 7.48 | 211 | 326 | 64.7 | 2437 | 12 | 12 |
| Jared Goff | 2019 | 7.41 | 394 | 626 | 62.9 | 4638 | 22 | 16 |
| Lamar Jackson | 2020 | 7.33 | 242 | 376 | 64.4 | 2757 | 26 | 9 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2020 | 7.33 | 305 | 486 | 62.8 | 3563 | 26 | 8 |
| Matt Ryan | 2020 | 7.32 | 407 | 626 | 65.0 | 4581 | 26 | 11 |
| Justin Herbert | 2020 | 7.29 | 396 | 595 | 66.6 | 4336 | 31 | 10 |
| Matt Ryan | 2019 | 7.25 | 408 | 616 | 66.2 | 4466 | 26 | 14 |
| Cam Newton | 2020 | 7.22 | 242 | 368 | 65.8 | 2657 | 8 | 10 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2019 | 7.17 | 317 | 534 | 59.4 | 3827 | 22 | 21 |
| Jared Goff | 2020 | 7.16 | 370 | 552 | 67.0 | 3952 | 20 | 13 |
| Kyler Murray | 2020 | 7.12 | 375 | 558 | 67.2 | 3971 | 26 | 12 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2019 | 7.03 | 353 | 569 | 62.0 | 4002 | 26 | 4 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 2019 | 7.03 | 311 | 502 | 62.0 | 3529 | 20 | 13 |
I posted a week ago that I'm not entirely sure about an investment in Stafford. While he's been productive, he hasn't been good enough to elevate the Lions into being a playoff contender. And now he's an older quarterback who's dealt with a lot of injuries the last two years.
But if healthy, he's going to be a better fit for McVay's offense than Goff was. And the Rams are free of that albatross contract. They'll need to win over the next couple of years without many early draft picks, but not at all far-fetched to think they can be the NFC West's best team, giving Stafford a chance to ply his trade in the playoffs, where Goff generally let the team down.
--Andy Richardson