I expect there will be varying opinions on Michael Thomas entering the 2021 season. He set a single-season record for catches in 2019, but he wasn’t much of a factor last year (in part because of injuries). And now he’ll be playing in an offense that’s radically different – assuming Drew Brees retires.
On Thomas’ behalf, he hasn’t been dependent on Brees the last two years. When Teddy Bridgewater filled in for five games in 2019, Thomas’ production didn’t drop at all. And when Thomas was playing his best ball last year, it was with Taysom Hill filling in at quarterback – Thomas was far less effective when Brees was starting.
Thomas isn’t a speedy receiver. He’s not a guy who can be counted on to get behind defenses for longer touchdowns. In that regard, he’s more like Marques Colston or Keyshawn Johnson – a large body who’s working the middle of the field. (And to clarify, it’s my belief that Thomas is better than Colston and Keyshawn – I’m talking about his style of play.)
Below see the list of the 25 receivers who’s caught at least 20 touchdowns in the last four years. Thomas shows up last on this list, with an average touchdown distance of 11 yards. Part of this can be attributed to Brees having a popgun arm, but Thomas also is simply not a burner who’s running by anybody. Even post-Brees, Thomas won’t hit on many touchdowns from outside the red zone.
Speed isn’t everything, of course. Keenan Allen and Jarvis Landry are also slower wide receivers, and they’ve also had good careers.
| WIDE RECEIVERS; AVERAGE TD DISTANCE (last 4 years) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Player | TD | Avg |
| Robby Anderson | 21 | 35.0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 41 | 34.2 |
| Will Fuller | 22 | 30.5 |
| Amari Cooper | 27 | 29.3 |
| Nelson Agholor | 23 | 27.9 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 26 | 24.8 |
| Antonio Brown | 29 | 24.3 |
| Kenny Golladay | 21 | 23.9 |
| Stefon Diggs | 31 | 22.2 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 20 | 21.8 |
| Brandin Cooks | 20 | 21.6 |
| Tyler Lockett | 30 | 21.2 |
| Cooper Kupp | 24 | 21.2 |
| Calvin Ridley | 26 | 20.4 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 37 | 19.8 |
| Mike Evans | 34 | 19.6 |
| Julio Jones | 20 | 18.9 |
| Marvin Jones | 32 | 16.7 |
| Chris Godwin | 24 | 16.6 |
| Adam Thielen | 33 | 15.8 |
| Davante Adams | 46 | 14.0 |
| Keenan Allen | 26 | 13.7 |
| Jarvis Landry | 22 | 12.0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 20 | 11.4 |
| Michael Thomas | 23 | 11.1 |
—Ian Allan