It's March, which means we can now say the NFL Draft is next month. There's some quarterback talent coming out of college, and that combined with the importance of the position -- and their potential to lead a franchise turnaround -- means a bunch will go early on. Possibly as many as four in the top 10 picks.
That was the guess of ESPN's Jeremy Fowler recently. No one doubts that Clemson's Trevor Lawrence, BYU's Zach Wilson and Ohio State's Justin Fields will go that early, and it sounds like North Dakota State's Trey Lance will too. Alabama's Mac Jones is a longer shot, but quarterbacks tend to rise in the weeks leading up to each draft, so you never know.
At a glance, it looks like potentially half of the teams currently in the top 10 will be considering taking a quarterback. Jaguars, Jets, Panthers and Broncos are possibilities. Falcons and Lions, maybe. And there could be some trades up from needy teams like the Patriots. Should be an exciting first round.
I took a look at the recent history of quarterbacks drafted in the top 10 picks; since 2010. There have been 23 quarterbacks selected that early in that time frame. How have those guys worked out so far?
In fantasy terms, about half have been significant players; impressive considering some of them have only been in the league a year or two. Twelve of the 23 have already had at least one top-10 fantasy season; nine have had multiple such seasons, with Justin Herbert likely to join that group in the next season or two. Three of the guys who haven't done it (Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa and Baker Mayfield) could reasonably join that group, either because they each have just half a season of experience or showed potential last year.
Just a handful of out-and-out flops: the Gabberts, Lockers and Rosens of the world (and somebody may make a case for Rosen). Then some more complicated players who have had their moments, and might again with new teams. Call them the 2015-2016 1-2 guys (Wentz, Goff, Winston and Mariota).
Here's the list, including number of top-10 fantasy finishes, and best fantasy season. Some busts, no doubt, but a positive track record overall. If there are in fact 4-5 quarterbacks selected that early, reasonable to think 2-3 of them hit. Even if it's more as a short-term fantasy quarterback, a la Blake Bortles, than as a franchise guy. Quarterbacks sorted by top fantasy finish.
| TOP-10 QUARTERBACKS, 2010-2020 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | Pass | Run | TD | Top 10 | Best |
| 2018 | 7 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 2074 | 631 | 18 | 2 | 1st |
| 2017 | 10 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 284 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 1st |
| 2012 | 1 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 4374 | 255 | 28 | 5 | 1st |
| 2011 | 1 | Cam Newton, Car. | 4051 | 706 | 35 | 5 | 1st |
| 2019 | 1 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 3722 | 544 | 24 | 2 | 2nd |
| 2015 | 1 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 4042 | 213 | 28 | 2 | 2nd |
| 2014 | 3 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 2908 | 419 | 11 | 2 | 3rd |
| 2016 | 1 | Jared Goff, LAR | 1089 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 6th |
| 2016 | 2 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 3782 | 150 | 18 | 2 | 8th |
| 2012 | 8 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 3294 | 211 | 14 | 2 | 8th |
| 2020 | 6 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 4336 | 234 | 36 | 1 | 9th |
| 2012 | 2 | Robert Griffin III, Wash. | 3200 | 815 | 27 | 1 | 10th |
| 2015 | 2 | Marcus Mariota, Tenn. | 2818 | 252 | 21 | 0 | 14th |
| 2017 | 2 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 2193 | 248 | 9 | 0 | 15th |
| 2018 | 1 | Baker Mayfield, Clev. | 3725 | 131 | 27 | 0 | 16th |
| 2010 | 1 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 3512 | 63 | 19 | 0 | 17th |
| 2019 | 6 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 3027 | 279 | 26 | 0 | 20th |
| 2018 | 3 | Sam Darnold, NYJ | 2865 | 138 | 18 | 0 | 24th |
| 2020 | 1 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 2688 | 142 | 16 | 0 | 25th |
| 2011 | 10 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 2214 | 98 | 12 | 0 | 27th |
| 2011 | 8 | Jake Locker, Tenn. | 542 | 56 | 5 | 0 | 29th |
| 2018 | 10 | Josh Rosen, Ariz. | 2278 | 138 | 11 | 0 | 32nd |
| 2020 | 5 | Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. | 1814 | 109 | 14 | 0 | 34th |
In the weeks to come we'll take a closer look at all of these quarterbacks. Landing spot will be important, with Lawrence to Jacksonville the only seeming sure thing.
--Andy Richardson