The Indianapolis Colts had the No. 1 fantasy defense a year ago, in scoring systems that gave 1 point for sacks, 2 for takeaways and 6 for all touchdowns, anyway. They did so despite being only slightly above-average in sacks (40) and 5th in takeaways (25). Their ability to turn takeaways into touchdowns was key.
Led by opportunistic Darius Leonard (pictured), Indianapolis led the NFL with 6 defensive and special teams touchdowns last year: 4 on interceptions, 1 on a kick return, and one on a blocked kick. That was 2 more than any other team. There's considerable chance involved in such plays, though, and defensive touchdowns have generally been declining around the league. A decade ago the NFL average was around 3.5; it's been at 2.5 over the past three years. What are the odds of the Colts putting up strong numbers in this area again?
I took a look at the best defenses in this area over the past decade (and I'm including special teams touchdowns, as well). There have been 80 teams to score at least 5 TDs on defensive and special teams touchdowns in the last 10 years. How did they fare one year later?
Exactly a quarter (20) of those 80 defenses scored at least 5 touchdowns in the next season. That includes three teams from the last three years. Statistically a 25 percent chance of the Colts scoring 5 defensive and special teams touchdowns again.
But nearly half of the 80 (37) scored at least 4 touchdowns a year later. A decline from their 5-TD seasons, but still an above-average figure. Two of 2019's 5-TD defenses, the Patriots and Ravens, were in that group, scoring 4 TDs in 2020. About two-thirds (52) scored 3-plus the next season.
I don't expect the Colts to again score 6 defensive and special teams score or be 2021's top fantasy defense, but there seems to be about an even chance that they're again one of the best teams in this regard. I suspect they'll be in my top 10 defenses for 2021.
Top TD-scoring defenses over the past decade are shown below, sorted by the number of touchdowns they scored one year later.
| D/STS SCORING 5 TDS, 2010-2020 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | TDs | Next |
| 2011 | Chicago | 9 | 10 |
| 2015 | Kansas City | 6 | 8 |
| 2011 | Denver | 5 | 8 |
| 2015 | Minnesota | 6 | 7 |
| 2014 | Philadelphia | 11 | 7 |
| 2014 | Arizona | 5 | 7 |
| 2012 | Chicago | 10 | 7 |
| 2018 | NY Jets | 5 | 6 |
| 2017 | Chicago | 5 | 6 |
| 2014 | Minnesota | 5 | 6 |
| 2012 | LA Rams | 5 | 6 |
| 2011 | Seattle | 5 | 6 |
| 2017 | LA Rams | 6 | 5 |
| 2016 | Philadelphia | 5 | 5 |
| 2015 | Philadelphia | 7 | 5 |
| 2013 | LA Rams | 6 | 5 |
| 2013 | Arizona | 5 | 5 |
| 2012 | Denver | 8 | 5 |
| 2011 | Baltimore | 5 | 5 |
| 2010 | Seattle | 6 | 5 |
| 2019 | New England | 7 | 4 |
| 2019 | Baltimore | 6 | 4 |
| 2018 | Kansas City | 5 | 4 |
| 2018 | LA Rams | 5 | 4 |
| 2017 | Baltimore | 7 | 4 |
| 2016 | Kansas City | 8 | 4 |
| 2016 | LA Chargers | 5 | 4 |
| 2015 | Denver | 6 | 4 |
| 2015 | NY Giants | 6 | 4 |
| 2014 | LA Rams | 5 | 4 |
| 2012 | Seattle | 6 | 4 |
| 2012 | Minnesota | 5 | 4 |
| 2011 | Green Bay | 7 | 4 |
| 2011 | Buffalo | 7 | 4 |
| 2010 | Arizona | 10 | 4 |
| 2010 | New England | 9 | 4 |
| 2010 | NY Jets | 5 | 4 |
| 2017 | Jacksonville | 8 | 3 |
| 2015 | Arizona | 7 | 3 |
| 2014 | Houston | 6 | 3 |
| 2014 | Pittsburgh | 6 | 3 |
| 2013 | Kansas City | 11 | 3 |
| 2013 | Dallas | 6 | 3 |
| 2013 | Denver | 5 | 3 |
| 2013 | Cleveland | 5 | 3 |
| 2013 | San Francisco | 5 | 3 |
| 2012 | Tennessee | 9 | 3 |
| 2012 | New England | 7 | 3 |
| 2012 | Baltimore | 5 | 3 |
| 2010 | Indianapolis | 5 | 3 |
| 2010 | San Francisco | 5 | 3 |
| 2010 | Atlanta | 5 | 3 |
| 2018 | Chicago | 6 | 2 |
| 2018 | Miami | 5 | 2 |
| 2017 | Detroit | 7 | 2 |
| 2017 | Seattle | 5 | 2 |
| 2016 | Atlanta | 5 | 2 |
| 2015 | Indianapolis | 5 | 2 |
| 2014 | Green Bay | 6 | 2 |
| 2014 | New England | 5 | 2 |
| 2013 | Chicago | 7 | 2 |
| 2012 | Indianapolis | 6 | 2 |
| 2012 | Houston | 5 | 2 |
| 2012 | NY Jets | 5 | 2 |
| 2010 | Las Vegas | 7 | 2 |
| 2019 | NY Jets | 6 | 1 |
| 2019 | Tampa Bay | 6 | 1 |
| 2019 | San Francisco | 5 | 1 |
| 2018 | Cincinnati | 5 | 1 |
| 2017 | New Orleans | 5 | 1 |
| 2016 | Minnesota | 7 | 1 |
| 2015 | Seattle | 5 | 1 |
| 2015 | Washington | 5 | 1 |
| 2013 | Cincinnati | 7 | 1 |
| 2012 | LA Chargers | 9 | 1 |
| 2010 | Dallas | 7 | 1 |
| 2017 | Philadelphia | 5 | 0 |
| 2013 | Washington | 5 | 0 |
| 2012 | New Orleans | 5 | 0 |
| 2011 | Detroit | 7 | 0 |
| 2020 | Indianapolis | 6 | ?? |