Joshua Kelley was pretty awful as a rookie. Can he get off the canvas and turn things around in his second season?
The Chargers selected Kelley (out of UCLA) in fourth round, and they tried to get him going as a second back. Austin Ekeler is great, but they can’t just run him into the ground.
But Kelley was largely ineffective. In the four games where he was on the field for over half of their plays, he carried 53 times for only 128 yards. That’s a putrid 2.4 yards per carry.
They sat him down for most of the final third of the season, at times going with backs like Kalen Ballage, Troymaine Pope and Justin Jackson. Kelley got on the field for only 8 plays in the final five games.
On the plus side, Kelley caught all 23 of the passes thrown his way. But he finished his rookie season at only 3.2 yards per carry. That’s the lowest of everyone with at least 100 carries (and there were 47 such running backs).
The hope is that Kelley will come back smarter and more confident, with more practice reps and study time. They’ve got a new coaching staff, which might help. Other backs have been able to turn things around after lousy starts (Ronald Jones of the Bucs comes to mind).
This is the kind of issue where it can be useful to trot out the numbers, seeing what others in similar positions have done in the past. In this case, there have been 19 other running backs in this century who have carried the ball at least 100 times as rookies and failed to average better than 3.5 yards per carry. We can then look at how those other guys did in their second seasons to five ourselves an idea of whether there’s any point in even watching Kelley in the preseason – or can he at this point simply be dismissed as a wasted draft pick.
Ends up, there have been some other slow starters before Kelley who have been able to turn things around. Of those 19, in fact, five in their second year finished with top-15 overall seasons (using PPR scoring). Not included in that group is Thomas Jones, who ended up being a really good NFL back. Ron Dayne also had at least some nominal success.
I’m not saying Kelley will be another Joe Mixon or LeVeon Bell. But if we’re handicapping it today, I would think Kelley will be the 2nd-best running back for the Chargers. I think he’ll evolve and outperform Jackson (who was better last year). But it’s early. Some chance the team adds a notable running back in the draft.
| STRUGGLING ROOKIE RUNNERS (their second seasons) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rookie | Att | Yards | Avg | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2003 | Jonathan Wells, Hou. | 197-529-3 | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 | 5.1 | 141 |
| 2001 | Travis Prentice, Min. | 173-512-7 | 14 | 13 | .9 | 2 | 15.3 | 113 |
| 2001 | J.R. Redmond, N.E. | 125-406-1 | 35 | 119 | 3.4 | 0 | 38.1 | 82 |
| 2001 | Thomas Jones, Ariz. | 112-373-2 | 112 | 380 | 3.4 | 5 | 104.1 | 44 |
| 2001 | Ron Dayne, NYG | 228-770-5 | 180 | 690 | 3.8 | 7 | 127.7 | 35 |
| 2002 | James Jackson, Cle. | 195-554-2 | 12 | 54 | 4.5 | 0 | 9.3 | 124 |
| 2002 | • Travis Henry, Buff. | 213-729-4 | 325 | 1438 | 4.4 | 13 | 301.7 | 9 |
| 2006 | J.J. Arrington, Ariz. | 112-370-2 | 14 | 19 | 1.4 | 0 | 21.7 | 96 |
| 2009 | • Tim Hightower, Ariz. | 143-399-10 | 143 | 598 | 4.2 | 8 | 213.6 | 14 |
| 2011 | Jahvid Best, Det. | 171-555-4 | 84 | 390 | 4.6 | 2 | 112.7 | 43 |
| 2012 | Daniel Thomas, Mia. | 165-581-0 | 91 | 325 | 3.6 | 4 | 87.1 | 49 |
| 2014 | • LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 244-860-8 | 290 | 1361 | 4.7 | 8 | 370.5 | 1 |
| 2015 | Alfred Blue, Hou. | 169-528-2 | 183 | 698 | 3.8 | 2 | 113.7 | 47 |
| 2015 | Andre Williams, NYG | 217-721-7 | 88 | 257 | 2.9 | 1 | 35.4 | 89 |
| 2016 | Matt Jones, Was. | 144-490-3 | 99 | 460 | 4.7 | 3 | 79.3 | 58 |
| 2016 | • Melvin Gordon, S.D. | 184-641-0 | 254 | 997 | 3.9 | 10 | 254.6 | 7 |
| 2017 | Devontae Booker, Den. | 174-612-4 | 79 | 299 | 3.8 | 1 | 93.4 | 50 |
| 2018 | Samaje Perine, Was. | 175-603-1 | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 | 6.7 | 124 |
| 2018 | • Joe Mixon, Cin. | 178-626-4 | 237 | 1168 | 4.9 | 8 | 243.4 | 10 |
| 2021 | Joshua Kelley, LAC | 111-354-2 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan