My main dynasty league held its annual rookie draft over the weekend. We always do it one week after the NFL Draft, knowing where all the rookies ended up, but without knowing how they're fitting in. I mocked it on the site a week ago, and what struck me was how few surprises there were.
The first 18 players in the actual draft included only one player (Justin Fields) who wasn't among the first 18 players in my mock. (This is a 1-QB PPR league, where touchdown passes are 4 points and tight ends get a 1.5 points per reception.) Order was pretty close too, with me off by just a pick or two (if at all) on most of the choices. I could take pride in this; it shows I'm tuned into the national pulse on all these players and how they're viewed by the 12 people in an average dynasty league.
But I think it speaks to a shared consensus and group-think that's concerning. For one thing, it will make it much harder to get steals in rookie drafts. For another thing, when everyone views players similarly, it usually means everyone is going to be wrong about some of them.
Enough navel-gazing, here's how the draft went down. My picks in italics.
1.01 Najee Harris, Pit.
1.02 Kyle Pitts, Atl.
1.03 Travis Etienne, Jac.
1.04 Ja'Marr Chase, Cin.
1.05 Javonte Williams, Den.
These should and probably will be the top 5 picks in vast majority of drafts. The top wide receiver, top tight end and first three running backs selected in the actual draft. The guy who took Harris (who as discussed by Ian yesterday is stepping into a workhorse role in Pittsburgh) considered Pitts; certainly the tight end's career will probably be longer, and with flex spots you can start three tight ends in this league. I should point out the same team had picks 3 and 4 so we don't really know if he liked Etienne or Chase more; he took them both at the same time.
We've talked a little about Williams here. In the actual draft he went 10 picks after the first two backs, Denver traded up to take him, and he went nearly two full rounds -- 53 picks -- ahead of the next running back. That's what you call an absence of depth at the position. I like him to be the No. 2 on a team that wants to run the ball this year, and the No. 1 by 2022, when Melvin Gordon is probably elsewhere. Runs with intensity and can catch a little too.
1.06 Jaylen Waddle, Mia.
1.07 DeVonta Smith, Phi.
The guy picking 6th agonized over which Alabama wideout to take for a while. The guy picking 7th didn't have to choose. I don't know if they'll be 6-7 everywhere, but they might be. I would have taken Waddle -- bigger, taken earliest in the actual draft by a team with his college QB on the roster (who perhaps had some input), going to a team I have more faith is moving in the right direction than the Eagles these days. Heisman-winner Smith was pretty awesome too. Maybe both guys will hit.
1.08 Trey Sermon, S.F.
1.09 Elijah Moore, NYJ
1.10 Michael Carter, NYJ
1.11 Trevor Lawrence, Jac.
Had I had the pick at 1.08, I'd probably have selected Lawrence. Quarterbacks tend to go late in these drafts -- teams only start 1 each week, the scoring isn't terribly friendly (negative points for interceptions, just 1 point for every 30 passing yards, etc.) -- but Lawrence is much more of a sure thing than a late third-round running back joining the 49ers or a fourth-rounder joining the Jets. Had I not gone quarterback, I'd have taken Elijah, who should be the Jets' slot receiver and a target hog fairly quickly, presuming the team decides they don't want to pay Jamison Crowder a mint to do the same job.
Sermon and Carter should be the next two backs selected, certainly, but I'm a little nervous about making either a first-round rookie pick. Both teams have crowded backfields, and San Francisco's actually has a couple of decent players. The Jets don't seem to, so Carter could move to the top there fairly quickly, but when did the Jets last have a usable running back? Draft capital suggests Sermon will ultimately be San Francisco's guy, but they've been awfully fickle with running backs in recent years.
1.12 Rashod Bateman, Bal.
2.01 Terrace Marshall, Car.
Bateman was an NFL first-rounder and Marshall might be a first-round talent who fell because of some injury concerns. With Bateman the concern is he goes to a passing game that might not feature any one wideout, and that has a go-to tight end in Mark Andrews. Marshall goes to an offense that has a couple of other young, talented wideouts ahead of him. But I like both players and would have considered them if I were picking at those spots.
2.02 Justin Fields, Chi.
2.03 Pat Freiermuth, Pit.
2.04 Trey Lance, S.F.
Fields coming off the board ahead of Lance was surprising to me. There are some Midwesterners and Bears fans in this league which may have been a factor. I like the talent of both, but have a little more faith in Kyle Shanahan than I do in the choices made by Chicago, which swings and misses at quarterback year after year. I would have been happy with the new Steelers tight end out of Penn State or Lance with my pick; sadly both were gone, so I had to go with the next player on my board, who was a wide receiver.
2.05 Rondale Moore, Ari.
2.06 Kadarius Toney, NYG
2.07 Amari Rodgers, G.B.
2.08 Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det.
Grouping these guys together in part because that's about how I viewed them; if I'd had the next four picks in the draft, these might well have been the guys I'd have selected. Moore (pictured) caught 114 passes and also ran for 213 yards, with 14 total touchdowns, as a true freshman at Purdue. He then played in only 7 games the next two years, with injuries (including a torn hamstring) a factor. Plus he's 5-foot-7 and 181 pounds, and was probably off the board of some NFL and fantasy teams due to size/durability concerns.
But I'm a sucker for these little guys who I think can be the next Steve Smith or Percy Harvin. I have Kyler Murray and Christian Kirk, so I'm hedging my bets a little that I've doubled my chances of having the No. 2 wideout in Kliff Kingsbury's passing game (A.J. Green is not a concern for me, and Moore's selection doesn't say much for Andy Isabella). And the highlights are pretty awesome: speed, tracking balls in the air, shaking tackles, after the catch.
As for the others, Toney has the first-round draft capital invested, while the others could be stepping right into starting jobs for Aaron Rodgers and Jared Goff. I hoped one of them might make it to my next pick at 2.12, but no such luck.
2.09 Zach Wilson, NYJ
2.10 Chuba Hubbard, Car.
2.11 Kenneth Gainwell, T.B.
2.12 Hunter Long, Mia.
3.01 D'Wayne Eskridge, Sea.
I think we've identified the crapshoot portion of 2021 rookie drafts. Once backup running backs, No. 3 Seattle wideouts and tight ends you've barely heard of start going, it's the time to think strongly about trading 2021 picks for 2022 picks, and indeed that happened a lot -- a friend of mine with picks 2.09 and 2.10 traded both of them for 2nd-rounders next year. Smart choice I think, and I did consider doing the same with 2.12, but ultimately decided that Long, who the Dolphins selected midway through the third round and who caught 57 passes and 5 TDs at Boston College a year ago, was worth the dice-roll in this TE-premium league. I'm aware Mike Gesicki comes off his best year, but he's in a contract year now and not a given the team makes a long-term commitment.
Hubbard had a 2,000-yard college season and might well be Christian McCaffrey's backup, which worked out nicely for Mike Davis a year ago. Gainwell could be the No. 2 (or No. 4) in Philadelphia. Eskridge is a talented two-way college player who could immediately be the No. 3 wideout in Seattle. Wilson was widely viewed as the No. 2 quarterback (and selected that way) in the draft. Main negative: The Jets, but Adam Gase is gone right?
3.02 Kellen Mond, Min.
3.03 Dyami Brown, Was.
3.04 Mac Jones, N.E.
3.05 Josh Palmer, LAC
3.06 Jordan Love, G.B.
3.07 Khalil Herbert, Chi.
3.08 Nico Collins, Hou.
3.09 Seth Williams, Den.
3.10 Tutu Atwell, LAR
3.11 Tommy Tremble, Car.
3.12 Elijah Mitchell, S.F.
Palmer is basically the only player in this round I actually wanted to draft; I considered him at 2.12 but thought he was slightly more likely to make it to me five picks later. A third-round pick stepping into Justin Herbert's offense with the chance to be the No. 2 a year from now. Collins, Brown and Atwell were earlyish NFL picks with the negatives being the trainwreck that is the Houston team these days, the quality young pass catchers definitely ahead of Brown in Washington, and then the fact that Atwell weighs 155 pounds and also has a crowded depth chart ahead of him. People are concerned about Devonta Smith's size and he has 10-15 pounds on Tutu.
Unrostered veterans can be selected in this draft, and Love was dropped a few months back when no one was aware that Aaron Rodgers was going to try to force a trade. A decent gamble.
Mond might be the heir apparent to Kirk Cousins, though third-round quarterbacks are an iffy bunch. Mac Jones might be a very good quarterback, but he'll run about as often as Philip Rivers which curbs his fantasy appeal. Herbert and Mitchell are running back dart throws in a weak class. Anyone burned by Ian Thomas a year ago (we warned you) will stay well clear of Tommy Tremble, the Panthers don't throw to the position much. Williams is a big (6-3, 211) talented guy who nonetheless lasted until the 6th round of the actual draft, which doesn't suggest NFL teams believe he can harness his ability. But hey, Antonio Brown was also a 6th-rounder.
Feel free to let me know where you think we missed the boat in the draft, and who your biggest reaches and steals are.