We've talked (argued) some about how quickly Trey Lance might start in San Francisco, and some of the same questions can be posed regarding Justin Fields in Chicago. The Bears also have a veteran quarterback on the roster, but unlike with Jimmy Garoppolo, they just signed him a month ago -- he's not going to be traded or released.
Unlike San Francisco, of course, the Bears don't necessarily have a Super Bowl caliber roster, and Dalton hasn't done anything to suggest he can take the team deep into the playoffs. Chicago should chuck Fields into the lineup fairly quickly. What would they be clinging to?
Signing Dalton in the first place seemed like the latest lateral move at quarterback in a recent history of lateral moves. Whether it's trading up to draft Mitchell Trubisky (famously ahead of Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson), trading for Nick Foles, or signing Dalton, Chicago has generally been treading water at quarterback.
Dalton has been to three Pro Bowls and took the Bengals to the playoffs four years in a row, so it's not as if he's a poor quarterback -- in fact, he's quite capable. He was credible (if unremarkable) with Dallas last season.
The question is whether he moves the needle much for the Bears, and that's a lot less clear. Not necessarily better than Foles, who flopped last year, or better than Trubisky. Not down the stretch, and not noticeably so since Trubisky entered the league.
Over the last four seasons, all three quarterbacks grade out pretty similar -- touchdowns, interceptions, passer rating. Among quarterbacks who started at least 25 games (to sneak Foles into the table), they're all in the same general area. Well below average.
| QUARTERBACK PERFORMANCE, 2017-2020 (25+ STARTS) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | G | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Int | Rate |
| Drew Brees | 54 | 72.8 | 14247 | 106 | 23 | 110.3 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 46 | 66.0 | 14152 | 114 | 24 | 108.7 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 39 | 66.5 | 8540 | 72 | 22 | 105.9 |
| Deshaun Watson | 54 | 67.9 | 14539 | 104 | 36 | 104.5 |
| Russell Wilson | 64 | 65.4 | 15753 | 140 | 36 | 104.0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 55 | 64.8 | 14418 | 115 | 17 | 103.4 |
| Lamar Jackson | 46 | 64.0 | 7085 | 68 | 18 | 102.6 |
| Kirk Cousins | 63 | 67.8 | 16259 | 118 | 42 | 101.1 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 31 | 67.5 | 7352 | 46 | 26 | 98.1 |
| Tom Brady | 64 | 64.6 | 17622 | 125 | 39 | 97.6 |
| Matthew Stafford | 56 | 65.2 | 14806 | 95 | 36 | 96.8 |
| Philip Rivers | 64 | 66.1 | 17607 | 107 | 53 | 96.4 |
| Matt Ryan | 63 | 66.4 | 18066 | 107 | 44 | 96.3 |
| Derek Carr | 63 | 67.4 | 15702 | 89 | 40 | 95.6 |
| Dak Prescott | 53 | 65.6 | 13967 | 83 | 36 | 95.4 |
| Jared Goff | 62 | 64.3 | 17082 | 102 | 48 | 94.1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 48 | 65.4 | 13534 | 95 | 41 | 93.8 |
| Alex Smith | 33 | 65.8 | 7804 | 42 | 18 | 92.9 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 30 | 68.3 | 5235 | 25 | 15 | 92.5 |
| Carson Wentz | 52 | 62.8 | 13029 | 97 | 36 | 92.4 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 38 | 64.0 | 9089 | 57 | 36 | 91.0 |
| Kyler Murray | 32 | 65.8 | 7693 | 46 | 24 | 90.9 |
| Josh Allen | 44 | 61.8 | 9707 | 67 | 31 | 90.4 |
| Case Keenum | 43 | 64.6 | 9190 | 51 | 27 | 89.2 |
| Baker Mayfield | 46 | 61.9 | 11115 | 75 | 43 | 89.1 |
| Jameis Winston | 44 | 62.7 | 11680 | 71 | 55 | 88.2 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 51 | 64.1 | 10609 | 64 | 37 | 87.2 |
| Eli Manning | 35 | 63.6 | 8809 | 46 | 29 | 86.0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 37 | 63.9 | 7189 | 32 | 26 | 86.0 |
| Nick Foles | 25 | 65.8 | 4538 | 25 | 16 | 85.3 |
| Cam Newton | 47 | 63.6 | 9926 | 54 | 40 | 85.1 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 29 | 60.1 | 3513 | 17 | 6 | 85.1 |
| Andy Dalton | 51 | 61.2 | 11550 | 76 | 45 | 84.8 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 46 | 59.5 | 6059 | 31 | 13 | 84.2 |
| Daniel Jones | 27 | 62.2 | 5970 | 35 | 22 | 84.1 |
| Blake Bortles | 32 | 60.2 | 6408 | 34 | 24 | 82.5 |
| Joe Flacco | 38 | 62.6 | 8292 | 42 | 27 | 82.4 |
| Sam Darnold | 38 | 59.8 | 8097 | 45 | 39 | 78.6 |
Quarterback rating isn't everything. Dalton has taken teams to the playoffs, so the Bears could point to that and say that maybe, with enough good stuff around him in terms of receiving corps, running game and defense, he can do the same in Chicago. Perhaps he'll be a Week 1 starter.
But Week 5 or 6? I think it's a lot more likely to be Fields.
--Andy Richardson