So Rashaad Penny is sidelined at Seattle OTAs following a knee surgery. Of course it was minor, and of course he'll be ready for training camp, according to Pete Carroll, who never met a piece of bad news he can't soft-pedal or put a happy face on. A week from now he'll be ahead of schedule in his recovery and a week after that he'll be poised for an MVP season.
Today, though, he's sidelined, again. Entering his fourth season since Seattle drafted him with a first-round pick, even Carroll can't sugarcoat the reality that he's just been a really lousy choice. Chris Carson hadn't broken out at the time Penny was selected, but he was on the roster.
To Seattle's credit, they've been a nice spot for a lead running back, which perhaps explains why some continue to hold out hope for Penny. Seven times in the last 10 years they've had a top-20 running back. They've had three other top-40 backs in that time frame, so borderline fantasy starters (depending on league size and starting requirements).
Seattle's best running backs from the past decade are below, with 2020 players in bold.
| SEATTLE RUNNING BACKS, 2011-2020 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Run | No | Rec | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2014 | Marshawn Lynch | 1306 | 37 | 367 | 17 | 306.3 | 4 |
| 2013 | Marshawn Lynch | 1257 | 36 | 316 | 14 | 277.3 | 5 |
| 2012 | Marshawn Lynch | 1590 | 23 | 196 | 12 | 273.6 | 5 |
| 2011 | Marshawn Lynch | 1204 | 28 | 212 | 13 | 247.6 | 6 |
| 2019 | Chris Carson | 1230 | 37 | 266 | 9 | 240.6 | 12 |
| 2018 | Chris Carson | 1151 | 20 | 163 | 9 | 205.4 | 15 |
| 2020 | Chris Carson | 681 | 37 | 287 | 9 | 187.8 | 20 |
| 2018 | Mike Davis | 514 | 34 | 214 | 5 | 136.8 | 36 |
| 2015 | Thomas Rawls | 830 | 9 | 76 | 5 | 129.6 | 37 |
| 2017 | J.D. McKissic | 187 | 34 | 266 | 3 | 97.3 | 49 |
| 2014 | Robert Turbin | 310 | 16 | 186 | 2 | 77.6 | 57 |
| 2012 | Robert Turbin | 354 | 19 | 181 | 0 | 72.5 | 57 |
| 2019 | Rashaad Penny | 370 | 8 | 83 | 4 | 77.3 | 58 |
| 2020 | Carlos Hyde | 356 | 16 | 93 | 4 | 84.9 | 59 |
| 2015 | Marshawn Lynch | 417 | 13 | 80 | 3 | 82.7 | 61 |
| 2016 | Thomas Rawls | 349 | 13 | 96 | 3 | 75.5 | 62 |
| 2015 | Fred Jackson | 100 | 32 | 257 | 2 | 79.7 | 64 |
| 2018 | Rashaad Penny | 419 | 9 | 75 | 2 | 70.4 | 68 |
| 2016 | C.J. Prosise | 172 | 17 | 208 | 1 | 61.0 | 68 |
| 2011 | Justin Forsett | 145 | 23 | 128 | 1 | 56.3 | 72 |
| 2020 | DeeJay Dallas | 108 | 17 | 111 | 3 | 56.9 | 73 |
| 2017 | Mike Davis | 240 | 15 | 131 | 0 | 52.1 | 78 |
| 2013 | Robert Turbin | 264 | 8 | 60 | 0 | 40.4 | 79 |
| 2012 | Michael Robinson | 49 | 13 | 126 | 2 | 42.5 | 79 |
| 2011 | Leon Washington | 248 | 10 | 48 | 1 | 45.6 | 80 |
| 2016 | Alex Collins | 125 | 11 | 84 | 1 | 37.9 | 83 |
| 2017 | Chris Carson | 208 | 7 | 59 | 1 | 39.7 | 86 |
| 2017 | Thomas Rawls | 157 | 9 | 94 | 0 | 34.1 | 88 |
| 2020 | Travis Homer | 88 | 9 | 90 | 1 | 32.8 | 89 |
| 2019 | C.J. Prosise | 72 | 10 | 76 | 1 | 30.8 | 92 |
| 2017 | Eddie Lacy | 179 | 6 | 47 | 0 | 28.6 | 94 |
| 2019 | Travis Homer | 114 | 11 | 56 | 0 | 28.0 | 95 |
Looking at 2021 (which matters most at this point), we know that Carson will start, but there's an injury history; he missed four games a year ago. Penny, if he gets healthy, would seem to be next in line, but looks unreliable -- just as likely to be a wasted fantasy pick. Carlos Hyde is in Jacksonville, while Travis Homer is a lightly used 3rd-down back (about half as many receptions, 20, as carries, 43, in his first two seasons).
So probably either Alex Collins or DeeJay Dallas as the next-best option to be the No. 2 back. Collins was a factor in a couple of games late last season, and once had a nice season as lead back (back in 2017, for Baltimore). But realistically he's a roster longshot. A better bet is probably Dallas, the team's fourth-round pick a year ago. Dallas averaged just 3.2 yards per attempt as a rookie, but it's a pretty small sample set (just 34 attempts). He was an effective receiver, catching 17 of the 20 passes thrown his way.
When I heard the news on Penny, I added Dallas in my dynasty league. I'd been considering picking him up for a while, and that just made it easier. Decent chance he opens the season as the No. 2, and winds up starting some games in an offense that's produced a healthy amount of quality running backs the past few years. With Penny, hey, maybe. For his career, he's averaged 5.1 yards per carry, so it's not as if he can't play.
But he can't stay healthy. If he breaks out in 2021, it won't be on one of my teams.
--Andy Richardson