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Andy Richardson

Quarterbacks and team records

Rare that top passers come from losers

Last week I ran an item about running backs and team wins, looking at how often top (fantasy) running backs come from lesser teams. The results were eye-opening: just a third of top-10 backs came from teams with losing records, even with PPR scoring. People asked, so here are the same numbers for quarterbacks.

These results were also surprising to me, though I guess they shouldn't have been. Quarterbacks rule the NFL landscape, and if you have a top quarterback -- in NFL terms -- your odds of having a great team are a lot higher. That carries over to fantasy; if you have a great fantasy quarterback, it's pretty likely your NFL team will win a lot of games. Even more so than with running backs.

Of the 100 top-10 fantasy quarterbacks (4-point TD passes, 6-point TD runs, 1 point for every 10 rushing or 20 passing yards) from the last decade, more than three-quarters (76) came from teams that finished .500 or better. More than half (53) won at least 10 games. Twelve more came from teams that finished just short of .500 (7-9).

Just 12 out of 100 top-10 fantasy quarterbacks came from teams that won 6 or fewer games. Pretty rare that you'll get a great fantasy passer from an out-and-out bad NFL team. About half (five) of those guys got there due to significant rushing numbers: Newton, Murray, Watson and Bortles twice. If you're determined to draft a quarterback from a team you think will lose a lot of games, at least make sure he's going to run a ton.

TOP-10 QUARTERBACKS, 2011-2020
YearPlayerPassTDRunTDPPRRkW-L
2015Cam Newton, Car.38373563610455.5115-1
2011Aaron Rodgers, G.B.4643452573455.9215-1
2020Patrick Mahomes, K.C.4740383082437.8414-2
2019Lamar Jackson, Balt.31273612067463.0114-2
2020Josh Allen, Buff.4544374219473.5113-3
2020Aaron Rodgers, G.B.4299481493440.25313-3
2018Jared Goff, LAR4688321083397.2613-3
2018Drew Brees, N.O.399232224356.9913-3
2017Tom Brady, N.E.457732280363.7313-3
2017Carson Wentz, Phil.3296332990334.7813-3
2017Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.425128470333.3913-3
2016Dak Prescott, Dall.3667232826339.61013-3
2015Carson Palmer, Ariz.467135241382.0513-3
2013Peyton Manning, Den.547755-311498.8113-3
2013Russell Wilson, Sea.3357265391331.81013-3
2012Matt Ryan, Atl.4719321411384.1513-3
2012Peyton Manning, Den.46593760383.6613-3
2011Drew Brees, N.O.547646861478.4113-3
2011Tom Brady, N.E.5235391093446.7413-3
2020Russell Wilson, Sea.4212405132435.9612-4
2019Patrick Mahomes, K.C.4031262182341.41012-4
2018Patrick Mahomes, K.C.5097502722496.1112-4
2018Philip Rivers, LAC43083270354.11012-4
2015Tom Brady, N.E.477036533410.4212-4
2014Aaron Rodgers, G.B.4381382692412.0212-4
2014Peyton Manning, Den.472739-240394.0312-4
2014Russell Wilson, Sea.3475208496379.4612-4
2013Cam Newton, Car.3379245856359.5512-4
2012Tom Brady, N.E.482734324404.6312-4
2020Tom Brady, T.B.46334063410.25711-5
2020Ryan Tannehill, Ten.3819332667398.55811-5
2020Lamar Jackson, Balt.27572610057386.351011-5
2019Russell Wilson, Sea.4110313423383.7511-5
2018Deshaun Watson, Hou.4165265515397.4511-5
2017Cam Newton, Car.3302227546366.5211-5
2016Matt Ryan, Atl.4944381170414.9311-5
2014Andrew Luck, Ind.4761402733443.4111-5
2014Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.495232270383.7511-5
2013Drew Brees, N.O.516239523437.3211-5
2013Andy Dalton, Cin.4293331832377.0311-5
2013Andrew Luck, Ind.3822233774352.8711-5
2012Aaron Rodgers, G.B.4295392592411.6211-5
2012Andrew Luck, Ind.4374232555366.2911-5
2019Deshaun Watson, Hou.3852264138389.5410-6
2019Josh Allen, Buff.3089205109345.5810-6
2018Andrew Luck, Ind.4593391480405.9410-6
2017Alex Smith, K.C.4042263551347.6610-6
2016Aaron Rodgers, G.B.4428403694446.3110-6
2015Russell Wilson, Sea.4024345531398.5410-6
2015Aaron Rodgers, G.B.3821313441363.5810-6
2012Robert Griffin, Was.3200208157363.51010-6
2011Matthew Stafford, Det.503841780427.7510-6
2011Matt Ryan, Atl.417729842345.3810-6
2018Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.512934983429.229-6-1
2019Carson Wentz, Phil.4039272431344.399-7
2017Russell Wilson, Sea.3983345863415.819-7
2017Matthew Stafford, Det.444629980352.159-7
2017Philip Rivers, LAC451528-20337.679-7
2017Dak Prescott, Dall.3324223576325.9109-7
2016Matthew Stafford, Det.4327242072347.189-7
2016Jameis Winston, T.B.4090281651345.099-7
2015Kirk Cousins, Was.416629485363.1109-7
2014Philip Rivers, S.D.4286311020348.599-7
2013Philip Rivers, S.D.447832720358.269-7
2011Eli Manning, NYG493329151370.269-7
2018Kirk Cousins, Min.4298301231360.188-7-1
2016Kirk Cousins, Was.491725964379.558-7-1
2020Kyler Murray, Ariz.39712681911450.4528-8
2019Dak Prescott, Dall.4902302773412.838-8
2016Andrew Luck, Ind.4240313412386.148-8
2014Ryan Tannehill, Mia.4045273111348.0108-8
2013Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.426128991341.588-8
2012Tony Romo, Dall.490328491373.078-8
2011Philip Rivers, S.D.462427361350.878-8
2011Tony Romo, Dall.418431461343.898-8
2011Mark Sanchez, NYJ3474261036324.0108-8
2020Justin Herbert, LAC4336312345398.297-9
2019Jameis Winston, T.B.5109332501426.527-9
2019Matt Ryan, Atl.4466261471350.077-9
2018Matt Ryan, Atl.4924351254428.237-9
2017Kirk Cousins, Was.4093271794354.647-9
2016Drew Brees, N.O.520837202422.427-9
2015Drew Brees, N.O.487032141378.967-9
2015Matthew Stafford, Det.4262321591363.497-9
2014Drew Brees, N.O.495233681393.547-9
2013Matthew Stafford, Det.465029692371.447-9
2012Drew Brees, N.O.51774351437.417-9
2012Cam Newton, Car.3869197418392.247-9
2018Aaron Rodgers, G.B.4442252692367.076-9-1
2015Eli Manning, NYG443235610367.776-10
2014Matt Ryan, Atl.4694281450363.276-10
2014Eli Manning, NYG441030311349.686-10
2011Cam Newton, Car.40512170614448.936-10
2019Kyler Murray, Ariz.3722205444350.565-10-1
2016Philip Rivers, S.D.438633350354.865-11
2015Blake Bortles, Jac.4428353102406.435-11
2020Deshaun Watson, Hou.4823334443437.5554-12
2013Matt Ryan, Atl.451526550335.394-12
2012Matthew Stafford, Det.4967201264368.384-12
2016Blake Bortles, Jac.3905233594354.273-13

Top-10 numbers this year from Joe Burrow, Matt Ryan or Trevor Lawrence? Maybe Lawrence if he runs a lot. The other guys, with it looking very optimistic that their teams will be contenders, seem much less likely.

Fantasy Index