I’m nervous about Najee Harris. Nice-looking player, and I like the story – a guy who was often homeless when growing up working his way into the league – but I don’t know that they’ve got enough around him in Pittsburgh.
The Steelers ranked last in rushing last year, and they finished in the bottom 4 in each of the two previous seasons. That’s partially been dictated by play-calling (they’ve passed a ton). On this front, they’re supposedly going to run more; they’ve replaced offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner with Matt Canada, who’s younger and more dynamic. Maybe that helps some.
But the offensive line looms as a massive concern. It was terrible last year, and four of the starters from that group are gone. Maurkice Pouncey retired, Allejandro Villanueva wasn’t re-signed, Matt Feilner signed with the Chargers, and the Steelers released David DeCastro late last week, citing a bum ankle.
You can argue that these guys weren’t great last year, but Villanueva and Feilner both will make about $7 million with other teams this year. The Steelers, meanwhile, haven’t really signed anyone of note to help out; they’re hoping (probably unrealistically) that some in-house youngsters will develop into viable starters. The Steelers signed Trai Turner to replace DeCastro, but Turner is making only $3 million. Turner has been a good guard in the past, but if any other team believed much in him, he would be making a lot more than $3 million.
So while Harris is a promising back, it’s looking like he’ll often have to go it alone. It’s kind of the exact opposite of the situation he was in at Alabama, where he always had the luxury of running behind a dominating offensive line and lesser opponents.
So I would think that Harris probably fall short of playing up to where he’ll be drafted. I expect he’ll be selected between 8th and 12th among running backs in typical drafts, and it will be hard for him to put up those kind of numbers.
Consider the chart below. It shows the 31 running backs selected with first-round picks in the last 15 years. Only nine of these running backs put up top-10 numbers in their first season. Only another five cracked the top 20 (this is using PPR scoring). There were just as many running backs (14) who ranked outside the top 30 as who finished in the top 20.
I would like to see Harris have a good rookie season, but I think the general lay of the land suggests he’ll finish outside the top 15 among running backs.
| FIRST-ROUND RUNNING BACKS (last 15 years) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pk | Run | Rec | Tot | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2006 | Reggie Bush, N.O. | 2 | 565 | 742 | 1,307 | 9 | 272.7 | 9 |
| 2006 | Joseph Addai, Ind. | 30 | 1,081 | 325 | 1,406 | 8 | 228.6 | 13 |
| 2006 | • Laurence Maroney, N.E. | 21 | 745 | 194 | 939 | 7 | 157.9 | 27 |
| 2006 | • DeAngelo Williams, Car. | 27 | 501 | 313 | 814 | 2 | 126.4 | 39 |
| 2007 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 7 | 1,341 | 268 | 1,609 | 13 | 257.9 | 5 |
| 2007 | Marshawn Lynch, Buff. | 12 | 1,115 | 184 | 1,299 | 7 | 196.3 | 16 |
| 2008 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 24 | 1,228 | 260 | 1,488 | 10 | 251.8 | 11 |
| 2008 | • Jonathan Stewart, Car. | 13 | 836 | 47 | 883 | 10 | 156.3 | 33 |
| 2008 | • Darren McFadden, Oak. | 4 | 499 | 285 | 784 | 4 | 131.4 | 42 |
| 2008 | • Felix Jones, Dall. | 22 | 266 | 10 | 276 | 4 | 53.6 | 75 |
| 2008 | • Rashard Mendenhall, Pitt. | 23 | 58 | 17 | 75 | 0 | 9.5 | 128 |
| 2009 | Knowshon Moreno, Den. | 12 | 947 | 213 | 1,160 | 9 | 198.0 | 18 |
| 2009 | • Beanie Wells, Ariz. | 31 | 793 | 143 | 936 | 7 | 147.6 | 37 |
| 2009 | • Donald Brown, Ind. | 27 | 281 | 169 | 450 | 3 | 74.0 | 60 |
| 2010 | Jahvid Best, Det. | 30 | 555 | 487 | 1,042 | 6 | 198.2 | 20 |
| 2010 | • Ryan Mathews, S.D. | 12 | 678 | 145 | 823 | 7 | 146.3 | 31 |
| 2010 | • C.J. Spiller, Buff. | 9 | 283 | 157 | 440 | 2 | 80.0 | 55 |
| 2011 | • Mark Ingram, N.O. | 28 | 474 | 46 | 520 | 5 | 93.0 | 46 |
| 2012 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 31 | 1,454 | 472 | 1,926 | 12 | 313.6 | 2 |
| 2012 | Trent Richardson, Cle. | 3 | 950 | 367 | 1,317 | 12 | 254.7 | 8 |
| 2012 | • David Wilson, NYG | 32 | 358 | 34 | 392 | 6 | 79.2 | 51 |
| 2015 | Todd Gurley, St.L. | 10 | 1,106 | 188 | 1,294 | 10 | 210.4 | 9 |
| 2015 | • Melvin Gordon, S.D. | 15 | 641 | 192 | 833 | 0 | 116.3 | 45 |
| 2016 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 4 | 1,631 | 363 | 1,994 | 16 | 327.4 | 2 |
| 2017 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 8 | 435 | 651 | 1,086 | 7 | 230.6 | 9 |
| 2017 | Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 4 | 1,040 | 302 | 1,342 | 10 | 230.2 | 10 |
| 2018 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 2 | 1,307 | 721 | 2,028 | 15 | 385.8 | 2 |
| 2018 | • Sony Michel, N.E. | 31 | 931 | 50 | 981 | 6 | 141.1 | 34 |
| 2018 | • Rashaad Penny, Sea. | 27 | 419 | 75 | 494 | 2 | 70.4 | 68 |
| 2019 | Josh Jacobs, Oak. | 24 | 1,150 | 166 | 1,316 | 7 | 193.6 | 21 |
| 2020 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire, K.C. | 32 | 803 | 297 | 1,100 | 5 | 176.0 | 22 |
| 2021 | Najee Harris, Pitt. | 24 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2021 | Travis Etienne, Jac. | 25 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan