Factoid

July 28, 2021

Rookie RBs

Track record surprisingly soft for first-year running backs

Travis Etienne and Javonte Williams look like key decisions to me. Both have the potential to be notable contributors as rookies, but neither is guaranteed to even be the most productive running back on his own team.

The Jaguars and Broncos, after all, have other backs with some ability. James Robinson had a really nice rookie season for Jacksonville, while Melvin Gordon returns for Denver. Both have the advantage of having played in the league.

Etienne and Williams (pictured) were taken early, of course. They were picked 25th and 35th, meaning those teams are pretty confident they’ll be winning significant roles early. One Denver-area reporter has speculated he thinks Williams will lead the Broncos in rushing, and that he’ll be taking over sooner rather than later.

But history shows us that there are Etienne-Williams type backs coming in every year, and that it’s more common for them to fall short of expectations in their first year.

Since 2000, 48 running backs have been chosen in the second half of the first round or the first half of the second round. That is, somewhere between the 17th and 50th picks (I’m leaving out the early first-round picks because expectations are higher with those kind of backs).

Of those 48 running backs, only 18 – about a third – were the most productive running backs on their own team. And most (maybe all) of those teams didn’t have a back coming back who was as good as Robinson or Gordon. (15 of the 48, by the way, weren’t even the second-most productive back on their own team as a rookie.)

Only 11 of these 48 backs put up top-20 numbers (PPR scoring) in their first season, and only another 6 even finished with top-30 numbers. More commonly, these rookie running backs didn’t tend to be much of a factor. Injuries, of course, can be a factor at this position – four of the running backs didn’t play at all in their rookie year.

In the chart below, I’ve got the 18 team leaders tagged with black dots. I’ve got the three 2021 backs selected in this range in bold. That includes Najee Harris, since he was selected 24th by the Steelers, but he’s a different kind of prospect than Etienne or Williams – far more penciled in as a starter.

On the chart, the players are ordered not chronologically or by first-year production, but by where they were selected. Only one of the 17 running backs chosen between 18th and 28th (and this is really surprising) put up top-20 numbers in his first year. Chris Johnson. Only three of those 17 were the top back on their own team.

ON-THE-FENCE ROOKIE BACKS (since 2000)
Year	Player	Pk	Run	Rec	Tot	TD	PPR	Rk
2002	T.J. Duckett, Atl.	18	507	61	568	4	89.8	47
2000	Shaun Alexander, Sea.	19	313	41	354	2	52.4	62
2006	Laurence Maroney, N.E.	21	745	194	939	7	157.9	27
2008	Felix Jones, Dall.	22	266	10	276	4	53.6	75
2001	Deuce McAllister, N.O.	23	91	166	257	2	57.3	65
2008	Rashard Mendenhall, Pitt.	23	58	17	75	0	9.5	128
2003	Willis McGahee, Buff.	23	0	0	0	0	.0	--
2008	• Chris Johnson, Ten.	24	1228	260	1488	10	251.8	11
2019	• Josh Jacobs, Oak.	24	1150	166	1316	7	193.6	21
2004	Steven Jackson, St.L.	24	673	189	862	4	131.2	33
2021	Najee Harris, Pitt.	24	?	?	?	?	?	?
2021	Travis Etienne, Jac.	25	?	?	?	?	?	?
2004	Chris Perry, Cin.	26	1	33	34	0	6.4	143
2001	• Michael Bennett, Min.	27	682	226	908	3	137.8	29
2006	DeAngelo Williams, Car.	27	501	313	814	2	126.4	39
2009	Donald Brown, Ind.	27	281	169	450	3	74.0	60
2018	Rashaad Penny, Sea.	27	419	75	494	2	70.4	68
2003	Larry Johnson, K.C.	27	85	2	87	1	15.7	116
2011	Mark Ingram, N.O.	28	474	46	520	5	93.0	46
2006	• Joseph Addai, Ind.	30	1081	325	1406	8	228.6	13
2010	• Jahvid Best, Det.	30	555	487	1042	6	198.2	20
2004	• Kevin Jones, Det.	30	1133	180	1313	6	195.3	21
2012	• Doug Martin, T.B.	31	1454	472	1926	12	313.6	2
2018	Sony Michel, N.E.	31	931	50	981	6	141.1	34
2009	Beanie Wells, Ariz.	31	793	143	936	7	147.6	37
2000	Trung Canidate, St.L.	31	6	4	10	0	2.0	147
2020	• Clyde Edwards-Helaire, K.C.	32	803	297	1100	5	176.0	22
2012	David Wilson, NYG	32	358	34	392	6	79.2	51
2002	DeShaun Foster, Car.	34	0	0	0	0	.0	--
2020	• D'Andre Swift, Det.	35	521	357	878	10	193.8	16
2018	• Nick Chubb, Cle.	35	996	149	1145	10	194.5	17
2021	Javonte Williams, Den.	35	?	?	?	?	?	?
2015	• T.J. Yeldon, Jac.	36	740	279	1019	3	155.9	28
2010	Dexter McCluster, K.C.	36	71	209	280	2	61.0	65
2013	• Giovani Bernard, Cin.	37	695	514	1209	8	224.9	13
2001	• Anthony Thomas, Chi.	38	1183	178	1361	7	202.1	17
2018	Ronald Jones, T.B.	38	44	33	77	1	20.7	95
2011	Ryan Williams, Ariz.	38	0	0	0	0	.0	--
2020	• Jonathan Taylor, Ind.	41	1169	299	1468	12	254.8	6
2004	Tatum Bell, Den.	41	396	80	476	3	70.6	63
2017	Dalvin Cook, Min.	41	354	90	444	2	67.4	72
2004	• Julius Jones, Dall.	43	819	109	928	7	151.8	31
2018	• Kerryon Johnson, Det.	43	641	213	854	4	141.4	33
2008	• Matt Forte, Chi.	44	1238	477	1715	12	306.5	2
2005	J.J. Arrington, Ariz.	44	370	139	509	2	87.9	53
2016	Derrick Henry, Ten.	45	490	137	627	5	105.7	45
2006	LenDale White, Ten.	45	244	60	304	0	44.4	72
2013	• LeVeon Bell, Pitt.	48	860	399	1259	8	218.9	15
2017	Joe Mixon, Cin.	48	626	287	913	4	145.3	33
2001	LaMont Jordan, NYJ	49	292	44	336	2	52.6	72
2007	Kenny Irons, Cin.	49	0	0	0	0	.0	--

—Ian Allan

Javonte Williams Travis Etienne

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