Around the NFL

July 30, 2021

Dak Prescott

Strained muscle for fantasy difference maker

Scary week for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. The quarterback left practice on Wednesday with soreness in his throwing arm, and underwent an MRI. The good news is that it doesn't seem to be serious: Prescott has a strained muscle in his throwing shoulder. The team will shut him down (at least in terms of throwing) for a couple of days, according to Mike McCarthy, but the issue is considered minor.

The season is more than five weeks away, so I think Prescott can still be drafted with confidence. Arguably this is an opportunity to get one of the league's best fantasy quarterbacks at a slight discount, as some teams will undoubtedly be scared away. Those who take on the slight risk could be handsomely rewarded, because Prescott in Dallas has been pretty awesome the past few years.

Prescott played in only five games last season before getting injured, but those were some games. He averaged over 33 fantasy points in a scoring system that awards 4 for TD passes, 6 for runs, and 1 for every 10 rushing and 20 passing yards. That's the top average for any quarterback with at least 5 starts in any of the past four seasons. Looking at the top 60 such performances since 2017, Prescott shows up on that list three times.

QB FANTASY POINTS PER GAME, 2017-2020
Year	Player	G	Pass	TD	Run	TDR	PPR	FF/G
2020	Dak Prescott, Dall.	5	1856	9	93	3	168.2	33.6
2018	Patrick Mahomes, K.C.	16	5097	50	272	2	496.1	31.0
2019	Lamar Jackson, Balt.	15	3127	36	1206	7	463.0	30.9
2020	Josh Allen, Buff.	16	4544	37	421	8	473.5	29.6
2020	Patrick Mahomes, K.C.	15	4740	38	308	2	437.8	29.2
2017	Deshaun Watson, Hou.	7	1699	19	269	2	203.9	29.1
2020	Kyler Murray, Ariz.	16	3971	26	819	11	450.45	28.2
2020	Aaron Rodgers, G.B.	16	4299	48	149	3	440.25	27.5
2020	Deshaun Watson, Hou.	16	4823	33	444	3	437.55	27.3
2020	Russell Wilson, Sea.	16	4212	40	513	2	435.9	27.2
2018	Ryan Fitzpatrick, T.B.	8	2366	17	152	2	215.5	26.9
2018	Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.	16	5129	34	98	3	429.2	26.8
2018	Matt Ryan, Atl.	16	4924	35	125	3	428.2	26.8
2019	Jameis Winston, T.B.	16	5109	33	250	1	426.5	26.7
2020	Justin Herbert, LAC	15	4336	31	234	5	398.2	26.5
2017	Russell Wilson, Sea.	16	3983	34	586	3	415.8	26.0
2019	Deshaun Watson, Hou.	15	3852	26	413	7	389.5	26.0
2019	Matthew Stafford, Det.	8	2499	19	66	0	207.6	25.9
2019	Dak Prescott, Dall.	16	4902	30	277	3	412.8	25.8
2020	Lamar Jackson, Balt.	15	2757	26	1005	7	386.35	25.8
2017	Carson Wentz, Phil.	13	3296	33	299	0	334.7	25.7
2020	Tom Brady, T.B.	16	4633	40	6	3	410.25	25.6
2018	Andrew Luck, Ind.	16	4593	39	148	0	405.9	25.4
2020	Ryan Tannehill, Ten.	16	3819	33	266	7	398.55	24.9
2018	Deshaun Watson, Hou.	16	4165	26	551	5	397.4	24.8
2018	Jared Goff, LAR	16	4688	32	108	2	397.2	24.8
2018	Cam Newton, Car.	14	3395	24	488	4	342.6	24.5
2019	Patrick Mahomes, K.C.	14	4031	26	218	2	341.4	24.4
2020	Kirk Cousins, Min.	16	4265	35	156	1	384.85	24.1
2019	Russell Wilson, Sea.	16	4110	31	342	3	383.7	24.0
2019	Drew Brees, N.O.	11	2979	27	-4	1	262.6	23.9
2018	Drew Brees, N.O.	15	3992	32	22	4	356.9	23.8
2018	Jameis Winston, T.B.	11	2992	19	281	1	259.7	23.6
2019	Matt Ryan, Atl.	15	4466	26	147	1	350.0	23.3
2018	Mitchell Trubisky, Chi.	14	3223	24	421	3	325.3	23.2
2017	Alex Smith, K.C.	15	4042	26	355	1	347.6	23.2
2018	Aaron Rodgers, G.B.	16	4442	25	269	2	367.0	22.9
2017	Aaron Rodgers, G.B.	7	1675	16	126	0	160.4	22.9
2017	Cam Newton, Car.	16	3302	22	754	6	366.5	22.9
2018	Carson Wentz, Phil.	11	3074	21	93	0	250.4	22.8
2017	Tom Brady, N.E.	16	4577	32	28	0	363.7	22.7
2018	Kirk Cousins, Min.	16	4298	30	123	1	360.1	22.5
2019	Ryan Tannehill, Ten.	12	2742	22	185	4	269.6	22.5
2019	Daniel Jones, NYG	13	3027	24	279	2	291.3	22.4
2020	Gardner Minshew, Jac.	9	2259	16	153	1	201.25	22.4
2020	Matt Ryan, Atl.	16	4581	26	92	2	356.25	22.3
2018	Baker Mayfield, Cle.	14	3725	27	131	0	311.4	22.2
2017	Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.	15	4251	28	47	0	333.3	22.2
2017	Kirk Cousins, Was.	16	4093	27	179	4	354.6	22.2
2018	Philip Rivers, LAC	16	4308	32	7	0	354.1	22.1
2018	Dak Prescott, Dall.	16	3885	22	305	6	352.8	22.0
2017	Matthew Stafford, Det.	16	4446	29	98	0	352.1	22.0
2018	Russell Wilson, Sea.	16	3448	35	376	0	351.9	22.0
2018	Tom Brady, N.E.	16	4355	29	35	2	350.9	21.9
2019	Kyler Murray, Ariz.	16	3722	20	544	4	350.5	21.9
2020	Carson Wentz, Phil.	12	2620	16	276	5	262.6	21.9
2020	Joe Burrow, Cin.	10	2688	13	142	3	218.6	21.9
2020	Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.	15	3803	33	11	0	327.25	21.8
2020	Derek Carr, L.V.	16	4103	27	140	3	347.15	21.7
2019	Josh Allen, Buff.	16	3089	20	510	9	345.5	21.6

Factoring in this health scare, Prescott will likely be undervalued in drafts. He won't be selected as early as several top quarterbacks, most likely, but when factoring in his dual-threat ability and what looks to be a suspect Cowboys defense, the potential is there for him to outperform them.

Maybe he won't be as good as last year (Dallas's defense couldn't possibly be as bad as it was in those games where Prescott was tearing it up), but assuming he's back throwing passes within a couple of weeks, he looks very appealing.

--Andy Richardson

Dak Prescott

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