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Draft Sharks Invitational

Carr, Gordon draw little interest in experts draft

I competed in a meaningful draft last night. The guys at Draft Sharks invited me to participate in their “Drafts Sharks Invitational” – a 72-person competition, with players separated into five 12-team leagues. This is a different style of league, with tight ends getting an extra half point per reception and two flex positions – one of the superflex variety (QB-RB-WR-TE) and one regular (RB-WR-TE).

It’s a best-ball draft lasting 25 rounds, and there are no kickers or defenses. So 300 QB-RB-TE-WR are being chosen, which gets challenging. Running out of ideas at the end, I used my last pick on LeVeon Bell (if a team were going to sign him, it probably would have happened by now, but whatever – there was simply nobody left).

I spent considerable time with league-specific preparations for this draft. The math gets complex, with the tight ends getting that bonus and the ability to use two quarterbacks (or three tight ends) each week. I pulled the five 2020 drafts from this league to create a roadmap, creating a general expectation of which positions would be picked in each of the 300 spots (most notably how long can one wait on quarterbacks?).

I also spent a lot of time looking at different position combos. That is, if you’re committed to taking a RB and WR with your first two picks, is it better to go RB-WR or WR-RB? If you’re locked into picking a QB and TE with your first and sixth-round picks, is it better to go QB-TE or TE-QB? That kind of thing.

After looking extensively at the different combinations, I concluded that Travis Kelce graded out as the top player on the board. With that extra half point per reception, when a tight end catches 100 passes, it’s like a wide receiver catching 150. Kelce’s an older guy, but he’s been really durable over the years (he’s missed only two games, and they’ve been of the sit-out variety). I’m not sure if I would have had the stones to take Kelce before Christian McCaffrey up at 1.01, but that wasn’t going to be an issue, with me sitting down at 1.06. If Kelce were there, he’d be the pick.

If Kelce weren’t available, most likely I’d be looking at either Davante Adams or Ezekiel Elliott. If I took Adams, he probably would be paired with Austin Ekeler at 2.07. If it were Elliott first, he’d probably pair with Stefon Diggs or DeAndre Hopkins at 2.07. With durability being huge in this league, I would have gone with the Elliott-WR combo over Adams-Ekeler. I think Ekeler will be huge, but he’s a smaller guy and I’m worried about him holding up. With Elliott, you’re getting one of those Derrick Henry type backs who simply doesn’t get hurt. With this being a no-moves league, durability is important.

I was surprised when Elliott was still on the board at 2.07. That was a highlight. With the Kelce-Elliott start, I feel like I kind of drew the ideal draft position for my own preferences.

I would have considered starting with double tight ends. If Darren Waller had been there at 2.07, I would have been willing to select him. But Sigmund Bloom of FootballGuys.com was also a fan of tight ends; he took Waller at 1.08.

In my mock ups, I figured I’d be taking Tom Brady or Justin Herbert at 3.06. But QBs went off the board a lot faster than I expected. With QBs being so crucial, I used 3.06 and 4.07 picks on Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins. My pre-draft plans were to take a WR at 4.07, with a Cousins-type guy at 5.06, but I wasn’t sure there would be any good, reliable QBs left at that time. When I was on the clock at 4.07, 13 quarterbacks had been chosen, including Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow and Ryan Tannehill.

With the TE-RB-QB-QB start, I was locked into taking wide receivers with my next three picks. You start 3 WRs every week in this format (and it’s PPR). So I went with Thielen, Lockett and Aiyuk with those next three picks, and I felt pretty good about values – good players going a little later than where I thought they would.

And at 8.07, I felt I needed to add that other starting running back. I went with Mike Davis in part because I was confident I could get his backup cheap late in the draft. Qadree Ollison seems to be securing that job, and he’s an afterthought guy (would he even be drafted?). But I misread the market on him; Ollison went in the 20th round – the pick before I was going to choose him.

I went off script at 9.06. Derek Carr was still sitting there, and he was by far the highest-rated player on my board. He’s a top-15 QB on my board (had I known Carr would there at 9.06, I never would have taken Cousins at 4.07). But with the value of QBs in this league, I decided to just select Carr, adding a third quarterback. All three (Stafford-Cousins-Carr) are in my top 15, and all three almost never miss games. With this trifecta, I’ll be well positioned to have two good QB scores in my lineup each week.

In the 10th round, I went with Antonio Brown. In a best-ball with three receivers, I felt adding that fourth receiver was important. In the second half of last year, Brown was pretty comparable to Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Now I just need to go to the roof of his condo and chain down the furniture.

In the 11th and 13th rounds, I added a pair of veteran running backs – Melvin Gordon and Jamaal Williams. Both of these guys had been the best-available on my board in multiple other rounds, but I felt that they would still be around. Others aren’t as high on those guys as I am.

The last remaining key piece, I thought, was an additional receiver. Cole Beasley will fill that role. With his wild anti-vax rants, he was available at a discount at 12.07 (fear from drafters, I guess, that the team will release him). Beasley isn’t a playmaker, but he catches a bunch of balls out of the slot, making him a viable PPR option. With both Cousins and Beasley, I’ve got the two players most embroiled in the controversy over COVID vaccinations (Cousins isn’t practicing right now for the Vikings, and Mike Zimmer isn’t happy about it.)

In the 14th round, my focus changed. At this point, I stopped looking for contributors and started grabbing backups who might get elevated into larger roles at some point. I wanted to be sure to pick up a few of the key second-string backs, for example, figuring that at some point they’ll get some starts, producing quality numbers. Emmanuel Sanders kicked off this stage of the draft. If Beasley gets either cut or injured, Sanders will move into that role. And three high-upside running backs – Darrel Williams, Rashaad Penny, Chuba Hubbard.

Jimmy Garoppolo was a player I was planning on taking all along. He was going to be my third quarterback. I think he’s going to start for the 49ers and be a top-20 or top-25 guy for as long as he’s in there (maybe the entire season). I had Garoppolo much higher on my board than either Trey Lance or Justin Fields. With Stafford-Cousins-Carr already in the fold, Garoppolo was more of a luxury pick, but I couldn’t leave that value on the board at 17.06.

Things tailed off for me in the final seven rounds, with a number of misfires. With various other picks needed, I never got around to selecting that second tight end. Missed out on Robert Tonyan, and Anthony Firkser went earlier than I expected. So I figured I’d better grab a couple of tight ends (Dawson Knox, Jimmy Graham). But Kelce needs to stay healthy for my team to win this thing.

I missed out on Qadree Ollison, who I was planning on. The Garoppolo-Hubbard picks also cost me Amon-Ra St. Brown; he went earlier than I was expecting. I was planning on selecting DeeJay Dallas as a hedge for injury-prone Rashaad Penny, but he got grabbed. And I got sniped on Salvon Ahmed. I was planning on selecting Jermar Jefferson (I think he might have value if either D’Andre Swift or Jamaal Williams gets hurt) but forgot about him.

Only late-round pick I kind of like is Wayne Gallman at 23.06. I think Gallman’s a pretty good back – ran for over 500 yards in the second half of last year. I think Gallman will play somewhere, and relative to where he was chosen, I like him the best of the San Francisco backs.

If you want to pick through the results of this draft, the the recap is available at MyFantasyLeague.com. The other four drafts in this invitational are coming up later in the week.

More details on the competition are available at DraftSharks.com. They’ve got a one-hour breakdown podcast, with their own analysts weighing in on the picks.

IAN'S DRAFTSHARKS.COM SELECTIONS
PickPosTmPlayer
1.06TEKCTravis Kelce
2.07RBDALEzekiel Elliott
3.06QBLARMatthew Stafford
4.07QBMINKirk Cousins
5.06WRMINAdam Thielen
6.07WRSEATyler Lockett
7.06WRSFBrandon Aiyuk
8.07RBATLMike Davis
9.06QBLVDerek Carr
10.07WRTBAntonio Brown
11.06RBDENMelvin Gordon
12.07WRBUFCole Beasley
13.06RBDETJamaal Williams
14.07WRBUFEmmanuel Sanders
15.06RBKCDarrel Williams
16.07RBSEARashaad Penny
17.06QBSFJimmy Garoppolo
18.07RBCARChuba Hubbard
19.06TEBUFDawson Knox
20.07TECHIJimmy Graham
21.06WRLVHunter Renfrow
22.07RBINDMarlon Mack
23.06RBSFWayne Gallman
24.07QBLVMarcus Mariota
25.06RBUFALeVeon Bell

—Ian Allan

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