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August 16, 2021

Draft Sharks Invitational

ADP rankings from experts competition

There was a question about ADP that went by in the not-too-distant past. How reliable is it? Can we count on what’s being published at various outlets being anywhere close to what’s actually happening in drafts?

It got me thinking about the recent tournament that was held by Draft Sharks. That featured a field of 72 analysts and national contest winners competing in six 12-team leagues. That’s not a ton of leagues, but those are credible drafters. And with six leagues, there’s enough traditional picks to outweigh to few outlier-type stabs that occur.

So I took those six drafts and averaged the results. I’m not going to post a merged draft board, because the results in that kind of thing get more heavily affected by league format. This league has a superflex (increasing the value of quarterbacks relative to other players) and also gives an extra half point for receptions by tight ends. So best to focus on where players went relative to others at their positions.

I posted the results for quarterbacks on Saturday, so I won’t repeat those here. I’m going with just running backs, tight ends and wide receivers.

Keep in mind the rankings below are now a little outdated. All 32 teams have played a preseason game since the last of the six drafts, and things have change. About half of the teams in the league have at least one player who’s moved notably on my board. Most of the first-unit offenses didn’t play much over the weekend, but you see little things that affect your opinions.

I’ll start with the top 50 running backs, and these are PPR rankings. Guys I selected are in bold, and where I picked him is the first of the six numbers in the final column.

DRAFTS SHARKS INVITATIONAL (RUNNING BACKS)
RkPlayerDraft positions
1.McCaffrey, Christian CAR1 1 1 1 1 1
2.Cook, Dalvin MIN2 2 2 2 2 2
3.Kamara, Alvin NO3 3 4 4 3 3
4.Elliott, Ezekiel DAL7 5 3 3 4 5
5.Henry, Derrick TEN5 4 7 5 6 4
6.Jones, Aaron GB4 6 6 7 5 8
7.Ekeler, Austin LAC8 7 5 6 8 7
8.Barkley, Saquon NYG6 8 8 9 7 9
9.Gibson, Antonio WAS9 9 10 8 10 6
10.Taylor, Jonathan IND13 10 11 10 9 12
11.Mixon, Joe CIN12 11 9 12 15 10
12.Chubb, Nick CLE11 12 14 11 11 13
13.Edwards-Helaire, Clyde KC10 14 13 14 12 11
14.Harris, Najee PIT15 13 12 13 14 14
15.Carson, Chris SEA16 15 15 18 17 17
16.Swift, D'Andre DET20 19 16 16 13 15
17.Dobbins, J.K. BAL19 17 17 17 16 16
18.Montgomery, David CHI18 16 18 15 18 19
19.Sanders, Miles PHI14 22 20 19 22 18
20.Henderson, Darrell LAR23 21 19 21 19 20
21.Etienne, Travis JAC24 20 21 20 23 21
22.Jacobs, Josh LVR22 18 24 23 21 22
23.Gaskin, Myles MIA17 25 25 26 20 23
24.Edmonds, Chase ARI21 23 26 25 26 26
25.Davis, Mike ATL28 24 23 22 25 27
26.Hunt, Kareem CLE27 27 22 24 27 24
27.Williams, Javonte DEN25 28 28 28 24 25
28.Sermon, Trey SF26 26 27 27 29 29
29.Carter, Michael NYJ29 29 31 30 28 28
30.Robinson, James JAC31 32 33 31 30 31
31.Mostert, Raheem SF32 30 30 34 32 32
32.Harris, Damien NE30 31 32 32 31 36
33.Gordon, Melvin DEN34 35 34 39 34 33
34.Jones, Ronald TB39 36 29 37 33 35
35.Pollard, Tony DAL37 37 38 33 36 39
36.Fournette, Leonard TB35 33 39 29 43 42
37.Dillon, AJ GB36 38 37 41 35 34
38.Moss, Zack BUF43 34 35 38 37 44
39.Conner, James ARI38 40 36 40 45 37
40.Johnson, David HOU41 39 46 45 42 30
41.Drake, Kenyan LVR47 43 41 36 38 38
42.Edwards, Gus BAL40 44 43 35 44 40
43.Williams, Jamaal DET42 41 40 42 40 43
44.Murray, Latavius NO33 46 45 44 39 41
45.Singletary, Devin BUF44 45 44 46 46 47
46.Mattison, Alexander MIN45 50 48 43 41 46
47.Hines, Nyheim IND53 42 42 49 50 48
48.McKissic, J.D. WAS49 47 49 52 47 49
49.White, James NE48 48 47 58 51 45
50.Penny, Rashaad SEA51 49 50 48 53 50

I’m listing the top 60 wide receivers, using the averaged results of the six leagues. It’s PPR scoring. On the back half of this list, there are a number of guys who will have moved based on what they did over the weekend.

DRAFTS SHARKS INVITATIONAL (WIDE RECEIVERS)
RkPlayerDraft positions
1.Adams, Davante GB1 2 2 1 1 1
2.Hill, Tyreek KC2 1 1 2 2 2
3.Diggs, Stefon BUF3 3 3 3 3 3
4.Ridley, Calvin ATL4 4 5 4 4 4
5.Hopkins, DeAndre ARI5 5 4 5 5 5
6.Metcalf, DK SEA7 7 7 6 6 6
7.Brown, A.J. TEN6 6 8 8 7 9
8.Jefferson, Justin MIN9 10 6 7 10 7
9.Allen, Keenan LAC8 8 9 9 8 8
10.Lamb, CeeDee DAL11 9 10 10 9 10
11.McLaurin, Terry WAS10 12 12 12 11 11
12.Robinson, Allen CHI14 11 11 11 12 12
13.Evans, Mike TB12 13 13 16 19 13
14.Godwin, Chris TB17 14 14 13 16 15
15.Woods, Robert LAR19 15 15 14 14 16
16.Cooper, Amari DAL20 16 16 17 17 14
17.Moore, D.J. CAR18 17 18 15 18 17
18.Lockett, Tyler SEA21 19 19 19 13 18
19.Kupp, Cooper LAR22 22 17 18 15 20
20.Thielen, Adam MIN13 18 25 21 21 23
21.Jones, Julio TEN15 20 22 20 22 25
22.Johnson, Diontae PIT25 23 20 22 20 19
23.Chase, Ja'Marr CIN16 24 21 24 25 24
24.Higgins, Tee CIN23 29 23 25 23 21
25.Aiyuk, Brandon SF28 21 24 23 27 22
26.Claypool, Chase PIT29 28 26 28 24 26
27.Beckham, Odell CLE30 27 27 26 28 28
28.Sutton, Courtland DEN26 35 28 27 26 34
29.Golladay, Kenny NYG24 30 35 32 31 33
30.Jeudy, Jerry DEN40 26 32 30 30 27
31.Anderson, Robby CAR31 25 33 33 35 30
32.Smith-Schuster, JuJu PIT33 32 29 31 39 31
33.Boyd, Tyler CIN34 31 31 36 33 32
34.Shenault, Laviska JAC37 38 38 29 29 29
35.Cooks, Brandin HOU32 34 37 40 32 40
36.Samuel, Deebo SF35 37 36 35 38 35
37.Brown, Antonio TB47 36 30 42 37 36
38.Thomas, Michael NO27 33 42 34 47 47
39.Smith, DeVonta PHI41 39 34 46 34 39
40.Gallup, Michael DAL43 42 41 39 40 38
41.Chark, D.J. JAC39 45 40 37 42 41
42.Williams, Mike LAC38 41 39 45 43 43
43.Landry, Jarvis CLE36 49 43 44 36 48
44.Fuller, Will MIA (S)46 47 44 38 41 44
45.Samuel, Curtis WAS42 58 48 55 44 37
46.Moore, Elijah NYJ50 44 46 50 46 49
47.Hardman, Mecole KC51 43 50 48 49 45
48.Mooney, Darnell CHI53 48 45 47 56 46
49.Brown, Marquise BAL45 57 47 49 45 53
50.Waddle, Jaylen MIA52 40 52 60 50 42
51.Parker, DeVante MIA44 50 54 43 60 62
52.Pittman, Michael IND55 53 49 56 52 54
53.Jones, Marvin JAC49 56 51 53 53 58
54.Gage, Russell ATL48 60 55 51 48 63
55.Davis, Corey NYJ59 55 59 41 59 57
56.Ruggs, Henry LVR57 59 60 52 58 52
57.Moore, Rondale ARI64 52 53 58 61 51
58.Beasley, Cole BUF56 65 58 59 55 50
59.Bateman, Rashod BAL54 62 57 76 51 55
60.Davis, Gabriel BUF60 46 70 54 69 61

And closing it out with tight ends. In this league, this position gets an extra half point per reception, but I don’t think the results would be meaningful different than a regular PPR list.

Travis Kelce and Christian McCaffrey were the only players who were picked first at their position in all six leagues. At quarterback, Patrick Mahomes was picked first in four of the drafts, with Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson each picked before him in one draft. At wide receiver, Davante Adams was picked first four times, with Tyreek Hill coming in ahead of him in two leagues.

DRAFTS SHARKS INVITATIONAL (TIGHT ENDS)
RkPlayerDraft positions
1.Kelce, Travis KC1 1 1 1 1 1
2.Waller, Darren LVR2 2 2 2 2 2
3.Kittle, George SF3 3 3 3 3 3
4.Pitts, Kyle ATL4 6 5 5 4 4
5.Hockenson, T.J. DET5 5 4 6 6 5
6.Andrews, Mark BAL6 4 6 4 5 6
7.Thomas, Logan WAS8 7 7 8 8 8
8.Goedert, Dallas PHI7 11 10 9 7 7
9.Fant, Noah DEN10 8 9 7 10 9
10.Higbee, Tyler LAR12 12 8 10 9 11
11.Tonyan, Robert GB9 10 11 11 11 12
12.Smith Jr., Irv MIN14 9 12 12 12 13
13.Gesicki, Mike MIA15 13 13 13 14 15
14.Engram, Evan NYG13 16 15 15 15 10
15.Smith, Jonnu NE16 15 14 14 13 14
16.Trautman, Adam NO19 14 16 18 17 17
17.Everett, Gerald SEA21 17 17 25 19 16
18.Henry, Hunter NE17 23 18 23 16 20
19.Firkser, Anthony TEN18 18 20 16 24 23
20.Cook, Jared LAC20 19 21 17 22 22
21.Ertz, Zach PHI11 22 25 22 20 24
22.Gronkowski, Rob TB25 20 24 19 21 19
23.Kmet, Cole CHI23 24 19 24 18 21
24.Hooper, Austin CLE22 25 22 20 23 18
25.Jarwin, Blake DAL24 21 23 21 26 26
26.Ebron, Eric PIT27 26 26 26 27 25
27.Hurst, Hayden ATL29 28 27 28 32 28
28.Knox, Dawson BUF33 27 28 29 30 29
29.Howard, O.J. TB28 35 29 31 31 30
30.Arnold, Dan CAR35 30 30 27 35 27

—Ian Allan

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